Thread: Article: Where are the Twins at with statistical analysis?

Originally Posted by drjim

I am too lazy to look it up, but in the 05-07 range the Twins obliterated the record for K/BB ratio for a staff over an entire season (maybe multiple times). Even though a bigger part of the equation was limiting BBs over high K rates, I would say that shows some understanding of what is necessary for successful pitching.

The fact that they've gotten so far away from it shows that they don't quite get which part of the equation is the important one, or for that matter, that they even realized what they had.

Shane, I think you're spot on with your guess that the free agent pitcher is B. Webb. He fits the profile. Some years ago he had one of the best power sinkers in MLB. Injuries have affected his ability to pitch, much less his performance when able to pitch. Plus, like Rich Harden, he's the type of high risk/high reward pitcher the Twins should be taking a chance on.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Five theories regarding the Minnesota Twins - Baseball Nation

Haha. I like that a lot.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

It helped having that one guy...you know...the guy who should have won three Cy Youngs in a row for us.

No doubt, but it wasn't like Santana had the greatest K/BB ratio ever (he didn't even have the best on the team). The point is they built a staff like that in the past, its not like they forgot that is what is a successful formula. They just haven't been able to develop talent, have made poor trades, and won't spend the type of money on free agents that is required for these type of pitchers.

Originally Posted by Alex

The fact that they've gotten so far away from it shows that they don't quite get which part of the equation is the important one, or for that matter, that they even realized what they had.

If you honestly believe this I don't know what to tell you.

The manager doesn't pay attention to OBP and the GM signed Kevin Correia. That is the status of respect for statistics in this organization.

Originally Posted by drjim

No doubt, but it wasn't like Santana had the greatest K/BB ratio ever (he didn't even have the best on the team). The point is they built a staff like that in the past, its not like they forgot that is what is a successful formula. They just haven't been able to develop talent, have made poor trades, and won't spend the type of money on free agents that is required for these type of pitchers.

During the '05-'07 range, Santana averaged 5Ks to 1BB. That's FANTASTIC, especially for a high strikeout guy. Only one qualifying starting pitcher this year was better than 5:1, Cliff Lee. Verlander was less than 4:1. Your comment sounded like Santana's K/BB ratio wasn't that impressive.

Santana's worst K/BB ratio during that 3 year range was '07 when he had 230+Ks and only 52BB in 233 innings...that got him the 4th best K/BB ratio in the majors that year after having the 2nd best K/BB ratio in the majors in 2005(Silva #1...with like 77 Ks) and 2006 (Schilling #1). I'm pretty sure that made Santana's ratio the best in the majors in that 3 year span for qualifying pitchers. Who was the best at that on our team during that three year span? It wasn't Silva.

Now, with Santana averaging 5:1 for that three year span, the team had a K/BB ration of 2.77:1 in 2005, 3.27:1 in 2006, and 2.60:1 in 2007. His 5:1 wasn't a huge contributer to that team K/BB ratio?

Originally Posted by drjim

If you honestly believe this I don't know what to tell you.

They focused on pitchers who don't give up walks. That's important, obviously, but the important part of the ratio is the K part.

This offseason was the first time they've tried to add prospects that have the potential to strike out batters. At the major league level, though, they continue to add pitchers that have some of the worst K/9 in the game. Worley may be the exception.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

During the '05-'07 range, Santana averaged 5Ks to 1BB. That's FANTASTIC, especially for a high strikeout guy. Only one qualifying starting pitcher this year was better than 5:1, Cliff Lee. Verlander was less than 4:1. Your comment sounded like Santana's K/BB ratio wasn't that impressive.

Santana's worst K/BB ratio during that 3 year range was '07 when he had 230+Ks and only 52BB in 233 innings...that got him the 4th best K/BB ratio in the majors that year after having the 2nd best K/BB ratio in the majors in 2005(Silva #1...with like 77 Ks) and 2006 (Schilling #1). I'm pretty sure that made Santana's ratio the best in the majors in that 3 year span for qualifying pitchers. Who was the best at that on our team during that three year span? It wasn't Silva.

Now, with Santana averaging 5:1 for that three year span, the team had a K/BB ration of 2.77:1 in 2005, 3.27:1 in 2006, and 2.60:1 in 2007. His 5:1 wasn't a huge contributer to that team K/BB ratio?

Thanks for the stats, I was going more from a hazy memory. I didn't mean to imply that Santana was anything short of great, but I was also remembering Silva's contribution. My point was that an entire staff was built, and that as great as Santana was it took the rest of the staff to obliterate the K/BB record. I don't think the Twins have forgotten how to do this, or that they don't want strikeout pitchers, it is just that they haven't developed those type of pitchers and won't pay free agent prices for them, which is why it has all falling apart the past couple of years.

Originally Posted by Alex

They focused on pitchers who don't give up walks. That's important, obviously, but the important part of the ratio is the K part.

This offseason was the first time they've tried to add prospects that have the potential to strike out batters. At the major league level, though, they continue to add pitchers that have some of the worst K/9 in the game. Worley may be the exception.

I would say a couple of things to this:
1. They have made a concerted effort to add high velocity (and hopefully high K guys) in the past couple of drafts.
2. This offseason is the first time in several years (maybe since '04) that they Twins have traded established players with significant value for prospects, so it was their first opportunity to add high ceiling guys through trades.
3. I still think the major league signings have to do with cheapness and an unwillingness to pay market value for Ks, while also trying to get bulk innings, not a misunderstanding of what makes a successful pitcher.

With regard to #3, I'd think you could argue that not being willing to pay for something, especially when you have the money and it's their biggest need, is precisely the definition of not seeing value in it, ergo not understanding how important it is to a successful pitcher. If you think it is important, you pay for it. Their obsession with supposed inning eaters and their willingness to pay them is even more evidence to me that what they value in pitchers is misplaced.

Originally Posted by Alex

With regard to #3, I'd think you could argue that not being willing to pay for something, especially when you have the money and it's their biggest need, is precisely the definition of not seeing value in it, ergo not understanding how important it is to a successful pitcher. If you think it is important, you pay for it. Their obsession with supposed inning eaters and their willingness to pay them is even more evidence to me that what they value in pitchers is misplaced.

That's a good point. The only thing I would respond with is I question how wise it would be aggressive in signing free agents when the team is a year or two (at least) away from being competitive. I don't like the Correia signing at all, would rather have seen McCarthy or perhaps Marcum, but don't have a huge problem with the Twins avoiding the 4 and 5 year deals even though they have the money. The rest of the pitchers being signed are all a huge meh to me.

I wish the Twins were better in free agency, but I think to truly understand what type of pitchers they value it is best to look at who they acquire in trades and who they are trying to draft.

Originally Posted by Alex

They focused on pitchers who don't give up walks. That's important, obviously, but the important part of the ratio is the K part.

That's nonsense. If one of the components were the important part, you wouldn't have the other component.

There's nothing quite as exhilarating as a fan than reading that your team aspires to be a middle of the pack team on a major branch of player evaluation.

Originally Posted by Kobs

There's nothing quite as exhilarating as a fan than reading that your team aspires to be a middle of the pack team on a major branch of player evaluation.

I read they aren't willing to overpay for above-average analysis.

Phil Mackey wrote about this last night. Below are couple of quotes from and a link to the article.

". . . Ryan now runs every personnel move by the team's manager of baseball research, Jack Goin, who manages the team's Pitch F/X database among other tools."

"Back when I was over at the Metrodome in '07, we did a lot of stat work, but it wasn't with the depth that he certainly provides for us. It's different. And he's got some statistical things that I don't believe in, and he's got a lot of things that I do believe in."

Notebook: Twins likely done making significant moves this offseason

He also stated in that interview that scouts he trusts said Correia was better than his numbers. From that I inferred that Ryan trusts scouts more than numbers.

Originally Posted by Kobs

There's nothing quite as exhilarating as a fan than reading that your team aspires to be a middle of the pack team on a major branch of player evaluation.

That's absolutely a twisting of what was actually said...which many fans obviously do find to be an exhilirating thing to do.

Originally Posted by East Coast Twin

Phil Mackey wrote about this last night. Below are couple of quotes from and a link to the article.

". . . Ryan now runs every personnel move by the team's manager of baseball research, Jack Goin, who manages the team's Pitch F/X database among other tools."

"Back when I was over at the Metrodome in '07, we did a lot of stat work, but it wasn't with the depth that he certainly provides for us. It's different. And he's got some statistical things that I don't believe in, and he's got a lot of things that I do believe in."

Notebook: Twins likely done making significant moves this offseason

He runs acquistions through Goin's department (he and the intern I guess) but I don't think this team truely is embracing any advanced metrics if they don't initiate a large amount of their acquisitons based on this data.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

He runs acquistions through Goin's department (he and the intern I guess) but I don't think this team truely is embracing any advanced metrics if they don't initiate a large amount of their acquisitons based on this data.

Basically he said, 'I go in there with my mind already made up, I listen to Goin, and if he agrees with me I trust his stats. If he doesn't agree with me, I don't trust his stats.'