We have no idea by whom or how decisions are made. We can only see the outcomes, and speculate. It was a nice article.
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We have no idea by whom or how decisions are made. We can only see the outcomes, and speculate. It was a nice article.
Exactly, it is the outcomes. If pitching boils down to this:
Then how do you explain Kevin Correia?Quote:
Pitching - maximize Ks, minimize BBs, shoot for more GBs and less FBs
Goin's remarks are evidence that there are very smart people in the organization with advanced ideas. Jr's actions evidence that Goin and his like are being, to some degree, ignored.
Stat's are extremely valuable with placing value or determining ability in respect to their peers with major league players. They say less about minor league players and absolutely nothing about amatuer players. (The article headline mentions "statistical data" but only pitch fx is discussed in relation to that. I will assume it means newer sabermetrics too.)
None of this really matters because the Twins always seek out the cheapest talent available. Stats or Scouting is always trumped by who can do the job for the cheapest possible price.
I think Correia is best explained by a combination of cheapness and desire to fill innings more than a lack of understanding of what makes a good pitcher. The Twins, despite our hopes and what they may have hinted at, were never really on planning on dipping too far into the free agent pool for a pitcher nor guarantee more than a couple of years, so they went for the guy who can fill the most innings at the cheapest rate. I don't especially agree with this plan but I still don't think it shows a lack of understanding on what makes a pitcher valuable.
I think a better example is seen in Meyer/May/Worley, the type of pitchers that they acquired when they traded away assets rather than spent assets.
I am too lazy to look it up, but in the 05-07 range the Twins obliterated the record for K/BB ratio for a staff over an entire season (maybe multiple times). Even though a bigger part of the equation was limiting BBs over high K rates, I would say that shows some understanding of what is necessary for successful pitching.
Ryan said after the draft that they drafted some 'power arms' because people had been harping on it for so long. It was like he was saying I don't agree, but I give in.
The article doesn't mention the other wing of Twins stat analysis. JR has this one guy on his Friendster account that really seems to like sabermetrics. Or maybe it was that he owned a Buick Lesabre. Either way, if that guy ever logs back into his account, JR's going to pepper him with questions.
Just to add to the ongoing discussion, of course people are going to overvalue the information they have easy access to (stats) as opposed to the information they don't (game film, scouting).