Thread: Mackey: Morneau finally healthy!

I've thought for awhile that a big reason for his recent struggles was lack of strength and conditioning work in the offseason. This is one reason that you only trade Morneau now if you get something good for him. The money isn't important since the Twins won't spend it anyway.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

For anyone saying that Parmelee is the future, that is false. Parmelee is a future bench bat (which would be GREAT if the Twins were in that position down the road) given the existence of Miguel Sano. Or failing that Kennys Vargas . . . or Travis Harrison, etc. The return for Morneau in a deadline deal (if the Twins don't seek to contend by not adding Marcum) is much bigger than Parmelee, but all options should be explored (including trading both of them).

And just how do you know this? Less than 300 PAs in the MLB and you're calling him a bench bat? You have no idea how he will turn out. His minor league record is clean (Much better recently) and he has first round talent. Parmelee has good power, patience, and can probably outdo Morneau with the glove at this point. I, for one, certainly can picture him being a solid regular first baseman. I would never go as far to say Harrison has a better chance than Parmelee at being a major contributor at first base. Harrison has done nothing exciting yet and Parmelee seems to have more power potential than he does. Vargas hasn't played enough to suggest he's even going to cut it higher up the totem pole. Sano is at 3rd base for the time being and, while 1st base is possible, no one has any idea if he's moving anywhere. There are more positions available than just first if the hot corner isn't a fit. You may end up being right, but you have no clear cut evidence or are in any position to make that claim.

I finally had some time on my hands and looked it up.

From a NY Times article last August "Morneau has switched to a gluten-free diet this year, eliminating pizza, among other foods. Once tempted by clubhouse candy, he now mixes pregame vegetable shakes. The idea was to feel better during the season and fight off minor injuries quicker. So far, it seems to be working."

I couldn't find anything on him since the season ended, but I would be interested to see if he is any where close to his off season routine pre-concussion in 2010. As was mentioned earlier, he has always worked hard in the off season to prepare himself physically. I think the past two off seasons he has spent a majority of his time just trying to move past his concussion symptoms. I still say he is poised for a nice comeback year. I'm not saying back to his 2006 level or even the half season he put together in 2010 before the slide in Toronto, but if he can do some work prior to reporting to camp, enter the season healthy, I'm confident he will put up some nice numbers. If we can come up with some good options in front of them. Our lineup will look pretty good with Mauer, Willingham and Morneau hitting in the middle.

The guy posted an OPS+ of 113 last season and you could see he was still struggling, particularly early in the season. I'm not worried about Justin. If he stays healthy, I think we can expect at least an OPS+ of 120-ish for the guy (around an .800 OPS), with the ability to OPS at .850 if he rebounds.

The Koskie factor. How valuable is he to the Twins and how badly does he want to be a Twin. Morneau can be a par of the long-term future, a 3-4 year extension. If they can agree on what the Twins want to play. He can factor in as a designated hitter for the future (the Twins do need that) who also has the ability to play first, provide veteran presence in the line-up, and remain a fan favorite. If this is a role he wants to play for the Twins, he can. He could continue as long as the length of the Joe Mauer contract if he desires. At some point, money doesn't always matter (i.e. Thome). Or, if there is the slightest inkling that he wants to be fulltime at first and wants bigger bucks...trade him. Now, immediately, get rid of him. The Twins NEED a designated hitter. At what cost ($7-8 million a year for a few seasons okay with everyone). If Morneau wants $10 or above, and if a team is willing to gamble and do that, then trade him. I would actively be throwing him there now..........and this recent quote by Morneau is somewhat of a p.r. move that will hopefully excite someone, if not the Twins, about his future potential.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Morneau's health this year would be great. Given this, the Twins need to throw some money at Shaun Marcum. A 1-3 solid rotation is a remarkable improvement when put together with a healthy Morneau, a full season of Plouffe, and the improvement of Parmelee over the hodge-podge in RF for the first part of last year.

For anyone saying that Parmelee is the future, that is false. Parmelee is a future bench bat (which would be GREAT if the Twins were in that position down the road) given the existence of Miguel Sano. Or failing that Kennys Vargas . . . or Travis Harrison, etc. The return for Morneau in a deadline deal (if the Twins don't seek to contend by not adding Marcum) is much bigger than Parmelee, but all options should be explored (including trading both of them).

The point is that 2013 contention is not out of reach with a healthy Morneau and the acquisition of Marcum.

Yes, 23 year olds that OPS around 1.2 in AAA grow on trees and are future bench bats. I think the Twins (and rightfully so I might add) are high on him. They guy can flat out hit. Whether his defense is any good remains to be seen, but you typically don't put a blocked 1B prospect in the OF temporarily if you think he's a bench bat.

I'm a little confused at the "if Morneau starts out hot we should trade him!" talk. I think people are vastly overrating the return we'd get on him, for one thing. Sure, if he's playing well a number of teams would be interested in him. But they're not going to give up much for a player who's a rental for the rest of the summer, and has his kind of injury history. I just don't know that the team is going to get much for him, and it would pretty clearly signal the Twins are giving up on the season, which will cause attendance to drop pretty sharply.

I'm also firmly of the opinion that baseball is different than other sports where tanking a season (basketball) is frequently a good idea, or a quick turnaround is relatively easy (football). Guys who can be this kind of middle of the order hitter aren't that easy to find. And if Morneau is healthy and playing well, I'd rather look at re-signing him for a few more years. If Parmelee hits well enough and plays well enough in the OF, it'd be nice to continue to have Morneau's bat helping power the offense. And I have to believe it'll be easier to sign him to a reasonable contract if the team doesn't dump him midway through the season...

Originally Posted by jmlease1

I'm a little confused at the "if Morneau starts out hot we should trade him!" talk. I think people are vastly overrating the return we'd get on him, for one thing. Sure, if he's playing well a number of teams would be interested in him. But they're not going to give up much for a player who's a rental for the rest of the summer, and has his kind of injury history. I just don't know that the team is going to get much for him, and it would pretty clearly signal the Twins are giving up on the season, which will cause attendance to drop pretty sharply.

I'm also firmly of the opinion that baseball is different than other sports where tanking a season (basketball) is frequently a good idea, or a quick turnaround is relatively easy (football). Guys who can be this kind of middle of the order hitter aren't that easy to find. And if Morneau is healthy and playing well, I'd rather look at re-signing him for a few more years. If Parmelee hits well enough and plays well enough in the OF, it'd be nice to continue to have Morneau's bat helping power the offense. And I have to believe it'll be easier to sign him to a reasonable contract if the team doesn't dump him midway through the season...

The reason everyone is speaking along those lines is, yes, competitive teams will give up assets for a productive rental player they think will help their playoff push. It happens virtually every year, but it usually isn't the Twins in possession of the wanted commodity. If a guy who is starting to enter the decline age range in his career can bring assets back, then see what you can turn him into.

And as for "giving up the season", the likelihood of the team being a known terrible commodity by the trade deadline is pretty high. The number of people outraged by trading a guy who could very well on his way out the door in a few months would be relatively small compared to the people already annoyed by a team that could be on its way to a third straight 90+ loss season. I doubt there's any notable group of people who would consider trading Morneau the "last straw" in deciding whether to go to a game or not.

I would love morneau to be here forever. He is a class act. But if they will not sign any pitchers this year, why would he re-sign here? I assume he also wants to win.

Adam LaRoche finally signed meaning there really aren't any appealing 1B free agents remaining. I would think if the Twins were planning on moving Morneau this off season, now would be the time. The hitch is that LaRoche re-upped with the Nationals meaning now they'll try to move Michael Morse who is cheaper, also on a rental contract and has positional flexibility. If you were to assume Morse is a more attractive player, to move Morneau the Twins may now actually need to eat salary AND take a lesser return, well a lesser return that what the Nationals are asking for Morse anyway.

I think with Morse looking like a better option for most clubs, this may indicate Morneau will be a Twin at least going into the season.

Morneau never had much trade value despite the spin that several tried to do. Hopefully he starts out hot and the Twins can get a decent prospect at the deadline. And then he Aguilera's it and resigns with the Twins for a couple more years.

If you were going to trade him, why not eat all the salary? What harm does that do?

Morse went to the Mariners in a three team trade in exchange for the return of AJ Cole along with another"good" prospect and a PTBNL. Top prospect Cole alone is a pretty good return for a defensively challenged rental player. Morse likely is more valued, but perhaps some value does still lie in Morneau after all.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Morse went to the Mariners in a three team trade in exchange for the return of AJ Cole along with another"good" prospect and a PTBNL. Top prospect Cole alone is a pretty good return for a defensively challenged rental player. Morse likely is more valued, but perhaps some value does still lie in Morneau after all.

I can't believe the As gave up Cole by himself to get Jaso. Getting Cole, another prospect and a PTBNL was big for the Nats

This doesn't make the Gio trade look any better but Beane zags when others zigs.

Napoli signs a 1 year 5 million dollar contract , a big difference from 3/39

Two different Justins last season: Against righties he was basically his old self, batting.290/.371/.531. Against lefties, he was a dreadful .232/.271/.298. That's not just a platoon split, that's two entirely different hitters.

Even though Doumit hits much better left-handed that right, the Twins might want him (or Mauer) to spell Morneau more often against lefties if he can't get it going against them after a couple of months.

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Two different Justins last season: Against righties he was basically his old self, batting.290/.371/.531. Against lefties, he was a dreadful .232/.271/.298. That's not just a platoon split, that's two entirely different hitters.

Even though Doumit hits much better left-handed that right, the Twins might want him (or Mauer) to spell Morneau more often against lefties if he can't get it going against them after a couple of months.

Morneau was hopeless against lefties early in the season, but he gradually got better against them, which leads me to believe it was a symptom of rust. Southpaws seem to really test the reactions of left-handed hitters, and Morneau's reactions were not very sharp those first few months. That just comes with reps. You've got to keep in mind that for much of the 2010/11 offseasons Morneau couldn't even work out vigorously without getting dizzy.

It takes a while to come back from that, and the wrist stuff hasn't helped, but I'm very encouraged by the fact that he seems to be back to his old routine this winter. Hard to overstate the impact that a 2009-caliber Morneau could have. That year, he had an .836 OPS against lefties, by the way.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Morneau was hopeless against lefties early in the season, but he gradually got better against them, which leads me to believe it was a symptom of rust. Southpaws seem to really test the reactions of left-handed hitters, and Morneau's reactions were not very sharp those first few months. That just comes with reps. You've got to keep in mind that for much of the 2010/11 offseasons Morneau couldn't even work out vigorously without getting dizzy.

It takes a while to come back from that, and the wrist stuff hasn't helped, but I'm very encouraged by the fact that he seems to be back to his old routine this winter. Hard to overstate the impact that a 2009-caliber Morneau could have. That year, he had an .836 OPS against lefties, by the way.

And even into 2010. His OPS against LH starters was over 1.000, and his OPS against LH pitchers overall was .966

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Morneau was hopeless against lefties early in the season, but he gradually got better against them, which leads me to believe it was a symptom of rust. Southpaws seem to really test the reactions of left-handed hitters, and Morneau's reactions were not very sharp those first few months. That just comes with reps. You've got to keep in mind that for much of the 2010/11 offseasons Morneau couldn't even work out vigorously without getting dizzy.

It takes a while to come back from that, and the wrist stuff hasn't helped, but I'm very encouraged by the fact that he seems to be back to his old routine this winter. Hard to overstate the impact that a 2009-caliber Morneau could have. That year, he had an .836 OPS against lefties, by the way.

This. Morneau flailed away at lefties early in the season and gradually started returning to respectability as the season progressed. I don't worry much about his ability to hit lefties, only whether he can stay healthy and avoid wrist and concussion issues in 2013.