Neal: Twins won't overpay for average pitching

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Originally Posted by ericchri

Honestly, I think if you walked into a Ferrari dealership with $5000 in hand, even if you were dressed in cut-up blue jeans and a raggy T-shirt, they'd listen to you very carefully. They might not sell you something on the spot, they'd probably want to check the rest of your finances, but they'd listen to you. Right up until the time someone else walked in dressed in a suit with $6000 in hand. That's of course assuming they only have one car available to sell, too. .

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What?

If you walk into a Ferrari dealership and offer them $5000 for a car, they don't wait briefly and see if a better offer comes along, then take a minuscule fraction of its value. They laugh at you and send you on your way.

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Originally Posted by old nurse

No need for personal insults,

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As opposed to how you talked to me when we were originally having this debate? It's okay if YOU do the insulting...just not vice versa.

And I'm kind of wondering how it is all these other people are making very similar points to what I was making on this same debate, some exactly the same, but you aren't overtly insulting them.

I didn't say offer them $5000 for the car, I said walk in with $5000 in hand. There's a big difference, as one implies you may have the resources to back up a huge purchase, the other would as you said be just plain stupid.

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Originally Posted by ericchri

I didn't say offer them $5000 for the car, I said walk in with $5000 in hand. There's a big difference, as one implies you may have the resources to back up a huge purchase, the other would as you said be just plain stupid.

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Yes, the theoretical Brock was throwing out, which you were drawing from, wasn't "go in and offer a down payment towards a long-term series of more respectable installments". It was "go, in, offer a ridiculously low sum for a valuable item, and then be outraged when it isn't accepted".

I think of Ryan as the Guy who shows up to a Sotheby's Art Auction with $50 dollars in his pocket.

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Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

Yes, the theoretical Brock was throwing out, which you were drawing from, wasn't "go in and offer a down payment towards a long-term series of more respectable installments". It was "go, in, offer a ridiculously low sum for a valuable item, and then be outraged when it isn't accepted".

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First, while you may choose to interpret it that way, it isn't explicitly stated in his post that it was a $5000 offer for the Ferrari, just that he brought $5000 in (which is what I replied to). Read his post again.

Second, his post is patently absurd, obviously for comic effect. For simplicity, I'll assume a Ferrari is $100,000. Thus he would be implying that he was offering 1/20 of the value of the car. Now, I can't be absolutely certain of course, but I'm going to assume the Twins aren't offering 1/20 of the offers these FA pitchers are actually receiving. I have no idea if they had any interest in Dempster or not, but I'm pretty sure if they did their offer was probably more in the range of 2 years for $18-20 million total. Which is a whole lot different than 2 years for $3 million total. My point being, if you walked into a Ferrari dealer with $75,000 in cash, which would be a much more appropriate amount to the likely scenario the Twins have been operating in, you likely wouldn't be thrown out of the store unceremoniously. They would still turn you down, but a claim of "not being able to give your money away" wouldn't be quite as ridiculous in that case.

Third, I have no real dog in this fight. My post was mostly an (obviously misguided) attempt to provide a touch more humor in the notion the Twins (the guy in the jeans and t-shirt) are competing evenly with the deep pockets teams (the guy in the suit with a bit more money).

When asked about whether or not the Twins were done looking for pitching:

"I wouldn't day we're done," assistant General Manager Rob Antony said. "I wouldn't say were pushing hard. We have our feelers out there. If the situation is right, we could do something else. If not, we're O.K. too...''

I don't know what all this fuss is about. If you have the cunning, you can walk in the door with only 2000 and leave in a Ferrari. This has been filmed:

Scent of A Woman - I'm a Gray Ghost Too - YouTube

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Originally Posted by ericchri

They would still turn you down, but a claim of "not being able to give your money away" wouldn't be quite as ridiculous in that case.

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And yet, still ridiculous.....which was the point. You can't "give your money away" because you are lowballing people - they'll take the other, bigger pile.

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

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Originally Posted by The Wise One

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

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Methinks he wants a sizeable bonus, a very early selection in the 2014 Rule 4 Draft--and still be the Twins' GM!

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Originally Posted by The Wise One

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

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And risk-averse would be a better term than cautious.

This team is going nowhere without taking at least one significant chance per season- and avoiding another Blackburn-like signing would seem to be a relatively easy thing to do.... oh wait, that's right, they signed yet another Blackburn clone for 2 years- And this above the market rate, a guy who couldn't even stay in the Pirates rotation. As Kwak just stated and as I have stated previously, watch what they do, not what they say. These signings thus far indicate that they are setting themselves up for another good draft slot in 2014 and again in 2015, with a plan for a return to mediocrity in 2015 with a large contingent of the kiddie corps finally called up in the everyday rotation and lineup plus Mauer.

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Originally Posted by The Wise One

The Twins had three pitchers with WAR above 3 in 2009. They spent money to sign Blackburn and Baker to decent contracts not bargains nor excessive. Up to that point by WAR Blackburn had pitched well. Pavano was signed to a one year contract after. That contract was the going rate for a similar WAR pitcher not names Lackey. He had a WAR of three the next yearand signed a two year contract which compared to similar WAR pitcher was a bargain contract. Yes the Twins love a bargain, but they went out and spent the money also. That they got burned in the end paying for injured and ineffective pitchers would explain their reluctance to give out the length of contracts Dempster and Jackson wanted. Cautious would be a better term than cheap.

Based on Ryan's hisory in trades I would say there is a 50% chance he could walk out with a Ferrari in a trade giving up a Buick. Unfortunately there is a 50% chance the trade ends up a Fiat Punto Fiat punto | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

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Welcome to TD.

Suggestion:

If you're going to make posts relying on WAR as the basis of your argument, you might want to change your login name.

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Originally Posted by USAFChief

Welcome to TD.

Suggestion:

If you're going to make posts relying on WAR as the basis of your argument, you might want to change your login name.

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You might also consider thickening your skin. Just as a precaution.

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Originally Posted by USAFChief

Welcome to TD.

Suggestion:

If you're going to make posts relying on WAR as the basis of your argument, you might want to change your login name.

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Damn lies and statistics Chief. They will have you believe a player is better than what he is and worth 14 million a year.

It's not that they won't overpay, it's that they won't pay market prices.

Someone wake up Terry Ryan and tell him that it isn't 2004 anymore, and $10 million doesn get you what it used to. It's like listening to old people at the grocery store complain about food prices while reminiscing about what things used to cost what they were kids.

I supported the Span and Revere trades, I think they were good moves. But not spending some extra money to get something better than Correia is really frustrating. This is a weak division. It should not take much to compete in it. A decent arm or two, and the Twins would have at least had a chance to be playing meaningful games late in the season.

And signing decent FA's as opposed to crappy FA's would not have jeopardized the long-term plan or hamstrung the team financially. Teams are always looking for pitching, if nothing else we probably could have traded them for something half-decent at the deadline if it didn't work out.

We all got frustrated with Smith's recklessness, now we have the other extreme. Some of Smith's moves were the equivalent of going for it on 4th-and-22 on your own 20. But now we have Ryan, who won't go for it on 4th-and-1 on the other team's 20. (Sorry, got a football mindset, gearing up for tomorrow - go Vikes!)

If Marcum goes for 2 years and under 20 million bucks to someone other than the Twins I am going to blow a gasket.

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Originally Posted by one_eyed_jack

It's not that they won't overpay, it's that they won't pay market prices.





And signing decent FA's as opposed to crappy FA's would not have jeopardized the long-term plan or hamstrung the team financially. Teams are always looking for pitching, if nothing else we probably could have traded them for something half-decent at the deadline if it didn't work out.

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But, Ryan proved he will pay above market prices for bottom of the barrel talent, just not for league average talent or above. That's not a recipe for success, but a recipe for (continuation of the current) disaster. There will probably still be at least a half a dozen Correia-level-or -above pitching talents available for signing in February who will probably sign for less than Correia.

The way to rebuild and still display at least a modicum of current competitiveness is signing quality, marketable talent. This is money and risk that Ryan is apparently unwilling to expend. (ie Don't employ Mets/Cubs strategies at one extreme or Royals/Pirates strategies at the other end- Rays/Orioles-type strategies would be just about right)

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Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

If Marcum goes for 2 years and under 20 million bucks to someone other than the Twins I am going to blow a gasket.

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Realistically, what % chance do you give for the Twins to win this deal?

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Originally Posted by jokin

And risk-averse would be a better term than cautious.

This team is going nowhere without taking at least one significant chance per season- and avoiding another Blackburn-like signing would seem to be a relatively easy thing to do.... oh wait, that's right, they signed yet another Blackburn clone for 2 years- And this above the market rate, a guy who couldn't even stay in the Pirates rotation. As Kwak just stated and as I have stated previously, watch what they do, not what they say. These signings thus far indicate that they are setting themselves up for another good draft slot in 2014 and again in 2015, with a plan for a return to mediocrity in 2015 with a large contingent of the kiddie corps finally called up in the everyday rotation and lineup plus Mauer.

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1982 ???????