Thread: Neal: Twins won't overpay for average pitching

Originally Posted by TRex

Please don't take this the wrong way, 70charger, but every time you reply to one of these inane posts (because I read all your posts) you thwart my attempt to block them by using the site's 'ignore' function.

Duly noted. I shouldn't be feeding the trolls anyway.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

The thing is that you don't need to go as high as Greinke. Sanchez is well above average. Marcum has been well above average, as has Dempster.

There are guys who rate quite a bit above "mediocre", yet the Twins aren't signing them and instead, pursue guys like Correia and Saunders, who only qualify as mediocre on their best days.

So far, the Twins have "overpaid" for awful pitchers. We could only wish they were overpaying for mediocrity.

How about Edwin Jackson? He produced Dempster numbers and got a Dempster contract and is 7 years younger.

The guy was in or near the top quintile for SPs in GB%, K/9, K/BB, xFIP, K%...etc. The Twins could have locked him up last year and again this year, if they were willing to just slightly overbid the market....and still come in significantly under their own self-imposed payroll restrictions.

Originally Posted by jokin

How about Edwin Jackson? He produced Dempster numbers and got a Dempster contract and is 7 years younger.

The guy was in or near the top quintile for SPs in GB%, K/9, K/BB, xFIP, K%...etc. The Twins could have locked him up last year and again this year, if they were willing to just slightly overbid the market....and still come in significantly under their own self-imposed payroll restrictions.

I've been bullish on Jackson for a long time. Given the Twins' payroll constraints, I wanted them to pursue him harder than anyone else. He's solid though unspectacular, still young, and could be had on a 3-4 year deal. He was exactly what the Twins should have been targeting this offseason.

But they didn't.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I've been bullish on Jackson for a long time. Given the Twins' payroll constraints, I wanted them to pursue him harder than anyone else. He's solid though unspectacular, still young, and could be had on a 3-4 year deal. He was exactly what the Twins should have been targeting this offseason.

But they didn't.

The early quotes was that they were going to be aggressive this off season. Jackson and others looking at the supporting cast could have said no thank you. Remember also the quote that Ryan said they couldn't give money away. The deals made should make the Twins better down the road but for 2013 the Twins would remain a last choice option.

The idea that the Twins couldn't improve their team because free agents wouldn''t sign here is one possible theory.

It's a theory completely without evidence, contrary to history, and it defies rational thought, but it's one possible theory.

Originally Posted by old nurse

The early quotes was that they were going to be aggressive this off season. Jackson and others looking at the supporting cast could have said no thank you. Remember also the quote that Ryan said they couldn't give money away. The deals made should make the Twins better down the road but for 2013 the Twins would remain a last choice option.

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

The Twins haven't been rumored to be in the mix for any decent pitcher this offseason. And it's not as if rumors aren't circulating. We've heard about them "being in the mix" on some pretty bad pitchers, just not any good ones.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

The Twins haven't been rumored to be in the mix for any decent pitcher this offseason. And it's not as if rumors aren't circulating. We've heard about them "being in the mix" on some pretty bad pitchers, just not any good ones.

At this point, I think walking into a Kia dealer with a crisp new $100 is a more accurate comparison.

First they couldn't give the money away, and now it's that they refuse to "overpay" for anyone that doesn't suck.


It's either a contradiction, or all of this money they couldn't give away was really just a bunch of low-ball offers with little chance of ever being accepted. I'm guessing the latter.



Annnnnnnnd Brock basically just said the exact same thing, but did it in a much more entertaining way.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

At this point, I think walking into a Kia dealer with a crisp new $100 is a more accurate comparison.

The used car dept at a Kia dealer, at that.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

If I walk into a Ferrari dealership with $5,000 and ask for a new car, I'll be promptly turned on my heel and escorted out the door. At that point, could I frantically wave my arms and scream about how I can't give my money to Ferrari?

The Twins haven't been rumored to be in the mix for any decent pitcher this offseason. And it's not as if rumors aren't circulating. We've heard about them "being in the mix" on some pretty bad pitchers, just not any good ones.

And since they pulled this same stunt when "attempting" to negotiate with Santana and Hunter, it's logical to believe this is actually what is happening with this years free agents to whom they "can't give away their money."

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

The Pirates. Bumped him. From their (the Pirates') rotation.

Ha Ha Ha

Reducing the team's payroll by ~20% is no accident--it was part of a plan. If that plan results in another throwaway season--it will still be a lucrative year for those on the Executive Committee (also part of the plan!).

Sometimes you overpay in one area and balance it out with a bargain in another.

The problem is the Twins prize reliability over talent at almost every level. And because they are so risk averse (if ever you could diagnose a sports franchise with a psychological impairment.....) the only time they will make a splash is when the player's number one asset is reliability.

See: Pelfrey and Correia rather than guys with more talent/upside.

I think the basic point (coming from TR) is that overpaying for lousy pitching (Corriea) is less expensive than overpaying for average pitching (McCarthy, etc.).

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I think the basic point (coming from TR) is that overpaying for lousy pitching (Corriea) is less expensive than overpaying for average pitching (McCarthy, etc.).

And that's a perfectly reasonable point, as long as you aren't concerned about your team collecting any of those... oh, what do they call them?... oh yeah... wins.

Originally Posted by Highabove

Sometimes you overpay in one area and balance it out with a bargain in another.

Presumably the pitching has been the bargain (oh god I hope that's what you're saying here) so what talent do you think the Twins will bring in with the other $15-20 million dollars they haven't spent? At this point it looks more like the Twins are just fleecing the fanbase.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Presumably the pitching has been the bargain (oh god I hope that's what you're saying here) so what talent do you think the Twins will bring in with the other $15-20 million dollars they haven't spent? At this point it looks more like the Twins are just fleecing the fanbase.

Your $15-20M number is way off. They essentially offloaded Span's contract and replaced it with Correia and so the Twins have actually only added just $4M for Pelfrey. Minus all of the other numerous castoffs and non-reuturnees, the Twins have more like close to $30M that "they haven't spent" when compared to the 2012 payroll (Pavano, Baker, Span, Marquis, Casilla, Liriano, Capps salaries total to well over $30M that no longer exist on the payroll, replaced thus far by players making around the minimum or a crap-shoot lottery ticket like Harden).

If you consider equating the outright gutting of the team up the middle as a standard fleece-job, so be it.

My point was this, The Twins got a bargain with Willingham on one end, overpaying for a reliable Pitcher on the other end would not be a mortal sin.

Originally Posted by jokin

Your $15-20M number is way off. They essentially offloaded Span's contract and replaced it with Correia and so the Twins have actually only added just $4M for Pelfrey. Minus all of the other numerous castoffs and non-reuturnees, the Twins have more like close to $30M that "they haven't spent" when compared to the 2012 payroll (Pavano, Baker, Span, Marquis, Casilla, Liriano, Capps salaries total to well over $30M that no longer exist on the payroll, replaced thus far by players making around the minimum or a crap-shoot lottery ticket like Harden).

If you consider equating the outright gutting of the team up the middle as a standard fleece-job, so be it.

Call it $15m or $30m. Call it a gutting or a fleece job. Those are basically semantics in my question. The poster I quoted above seemed to be implying the Twins were getting "bargains" in the pitching department so that they could splurge elsewhere. My question is where? At this point it is looking incredible likely the Twins will just pocket that extra millions of dollars. I'll be disgusted if that is $10m or $30m. Why the team was unwilling to spend on FA pitching I may never understand. I certainly don't understand it right now.