Thread: Neal: Twins won't overpay for average pitching

I dropped as a season ticket holder in part because I knew there was no chance this team was going to be significantly better for a few years even with an aggressive offseason. Ryan's lofty rhetoric was pretty misleading, especially since Ryan's track record is well established. I know people wanted to be optimistic about "what would he do with a bigger budget though?" line of thinking but the man has always been stingy about large contracts. Hell, the blame for the Santana situation still rests largely on his shoulders. All the things that make Ryan great (and a good fit for this team's need to rebuild IMO) are the same reasons why we shouldn't have taken his pre-offseason comments seriously.

It's been said that "if 2/$10m is supposedly reasonable for Correia, how is 2/$15m NOT reasonable for Marcum?" Good point. But it misses the reverse. If you find that 2/$10m is an absolutely terrible deal for Correia (as it seems that everyone does), how is 2/$15 million not a terrible deal for Marcum? Two wrongs don't make a right.

The Twins already overpaid for average pitching. I'm okay with their not doing it twice.

At a Season Ticket holder Conference, Ryan stated that he would use all means possible to bring in high quality pitchers and significantly improve the Starting Staff. Payroll would not be an issue. Ryan has not been very honest up to this point. Hopefully this can be subject to change.

Just a thought here but maybe Neal and Ryan meant to say that they won't pay MORE than 2/$15 for average pitching.

Originally Posted by COtwin

Myers 3.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 160 SO 168 IP avg last 3 years
Marcum 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 109 SO 173 IP avg last 3 years
Saunders 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 112 SO 196 IP avg last 3 years
Correia 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 89 SO 156 IP avg last 3 years

1st off. If the Twins mgmt is so dead set against the 2 year $14-15 million deal, they certainly didnt' show it by signing an inferior player for slightly less. If Correia can get 2/10, than Saunders and Myers and Marcum look pretty good at 2/14. I am sorry but Myers for 2/14 looks damn good. Myers is a different class of pitcher than Saunders (lack of strikeout ability), Marcum (durability), Correia (suckability).

Myers well may be within their radar. Sometimes no news is still negotiations

I believe you were told top free agents wouldn't come to a last place team. That would be Sanchez and Greinke. Average like those mentioned will go for a paycheck when they run out of options.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

I dropped as a season ticket holder in part because I knew there was no chance this team was going to be significantly better for a few years even with an aggressive offseason. Ryan's lofty rhetoric was pretty misleading, especially since Ryan's track record is well established. I know people wanted to be optimistic about "what would he do with a bigger budget though?" line of thinking but the man has always been stingy about large contracts. Hell, the blame for the Santana situation still rests largely on his shoulders. All the things that make Ryan great (and a good fit for this team's need to rebuild IMO) are the same reasons why we shouldn't have taken his pre-offseason comments seriously.

They still have a small market mentality. They should have done everything possible to move Cuddyer and Kubel before the 2011 deadline but didn't (I suspect they feared a mini-fan backlash for trading away "fan favorites" in the middle of the season). Last year they tried to patch together a winning team instead of blowing it up and rebuilding. Now they face the inevitability of another losing season and are haggling over 5% of the payroll on a critical part of the team. It appears they are trying to patch another team together that's just good enough to keep people interested.

The one thing the last few years should tell us is that you can never have enough pitching. Overpaying for a starting pitcher who actually has value is a much better investment and will make a lot better impact on the bottom line (i.e. ticket sales) than the bargain basement approach they have chosen.

Pretty simple if you don't over pay you will do with out. Where will that get you?

I am of the opinion that part of the reason Ryan was reinstated as GM was "his contention" that he won with a much lower payroll than Smith used--and that it could be done again! The comment about "lots of arms" is a clear indicator of the Twins' philosophy of starting pitching--especially when buttressed by the early statements about "a thin pitching market". Sounds like a Catch 22 kind of thing--if a guy had a strong season, he's overpriced, but if a guy didn't have a good last season, he can't be all that good and thus isn't worth much--but that's the kind of pitcher (they) want because next year may be "his year".

Originally Posted by 70charger

It's been said that "if 2/$10m is supposedly reasonable for Correia, how is 2/$15m NOT reasonable for Marcum?" Good point. But it misses the reverse. If you find that 2/$10m is an absolutely terrible deal for Correia (as it seems that everyone does), how is 2/$15 million not a terrible deal for Marcum? Two wrongs don't make a right.

Correia is a borderline fifth starter with very little upside. Marcum is a guy with a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. If you're going to spend a significant chunk of money, use it on a guy who actually has a chance to meaningfully upgrade your rotation, not a back-end placeholder.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

I don't know to what degree Neal is speculating here, but if this actually reflects the thought process of the front office it's disheartening to say the least.

Disheartening? Yes. But not surprising. Listen Terry Ryan believes that to build a successful team you do it by developing (trades, draft). The two trades that he made earlier this year are evidence of that. He is NEVER going to spend any considerable money on any free agent. I would have loved to get McCarthy here for 2/15, but thats not what they do. Frankly I was surprised that they would give Correia 2/10 just because I would have figured they would just give those innings to Hendriks, Deduno, or DeVries, and save the money.

For me the thing is they are rebuilding, and whether or not they say that the moves they have made this offseason tells me they are rebuilding. I'm gonna give them a couple years to see what happens with the 2 prospects they acquired, and see what Gibson can do before I bitch about them giving Correia too much, and not being willing to give McCarthy enough.

If everyone else thinks that 15mm/2yr is right for average pitching, isn't that pretty much establishing it as the market price? Thus agreeing to pay a similar amount is NOT "overpaying"... it's paying market price. If you don't want to pay market prices for resources necessary to be successful in a given business, you should consider getting out of the business.

I hope this collection of players is surprisingly successful and if it is, fans will show up for games. If not, revenues won't be there and next season we'll be going through all of this again as ownership complains about reduced revenues necessitating further payroll cuts.

Originally Posted by sturdy10

I'm gonna give them a couple years to see what happens with the 2 prospects they acquired, and see what Gibson can do before I bitch about them giving Correia too much, and not being willing to give McCarthy enough.

There is absolutely no connection between those things.

It is NOT overpaying if that is the market rate. It is NOT overpaying if that is the market rate. That's how markets work.

I think the average price of gas is too high. I'm not going to buy more until it is my asking price of $1.20 a gallon. Until then, I will make my own.

I think "overpaying" means exceeding the alotted budget. Ex: $15MM was alotted for new SP for 2013--and anything more than that is "overpaying". Adding the public statement of "3 new starting pitchers", and... . The salary reduction achieved by the trade of Span and replacing him with a "league minimum guy", provide additional funds to acquire the "lottery ticket purchase" type of pitcher. Perhaps their theory is something like: "we finished dead last spending $100MM, we can finish dead last spending $80MM".

Twins won't overpay for average pitching, the fans won't overpay to watch a last place team. So either win or we won't be watching.

Originally Posted by Kobs

There is absolutely no connection between those things.

point being if in two years they are contending due to the strength of the two trades this offseason no one will talk about giving Correia 2/10. They will talk about the two trades Terry Ryan pulled off.

Originally Posted by Gernzy

Neal made plently of good points. Starting pitchers have been getting overpaid for years and not always giving results. While I think we overpaid for Correia I understand not giving McCarthy $15 million.

I still want us to sign a solid pitcher, but who left doesn't have question marks?

Who did we aquire without question marks? Terry Ryan needs lots of things to break right for him this season, or he had better quit and ride off into the sunset,and take his posse with him....

I really don't understand this infatuation that so many have with Brandon Mccarthy. He wasn't very good before he went Oakland, he's pitched >120innings once in his career and he suffered a devastating injury last season and it wouldn't be shocking if he wasn't effective again.

The only argument is that he's likely better than Correia (I don't like Correia at all). The same goes for Blanton and Saunders. All you're doing is complaining about which mediocre starter the Twins picked up. The Twins probably picked the wrong one but none of them are that good so it's not a surprise that they chose the cheapest one.

I think Neal slightly missed with the article when it should be noting that the Twins won't overpay for average pitchers like Edwin Jackson since he got 52M and he isn't that impressive other than he throws hard and is durable.