Indians sign Swisher

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Yay, Swisher. Maybe that will offset the fact that the Indians have a bottom 10 farm system (as do the Tigers and White Sox). As much as I bitch about the Twins' free agent acquisitions (or lack thereof), I wouldn't trade places with either the White Sox or Indians and you'd have to make a convincing argument to trade places with Detroit, a team that is going to be good for another year or two and then will get real bad, real fast.

The only team in the Central positioned better for the future is the Royals and I think Moore blew it by trading for Shields this offseason.

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trying to project years into the future in baseball is fun, but pretty much impossible. Just my opinion, but I would almost always trade the future for the present in baseball. I would trade places with Detroit in a heartbeat, KC as well. And off the top of my head I would most likely swap with the Chisox as well. Cleveland I'd have to look at more closely, but whatever the difference between farm systems, the chances of the Twins minor league system turning out a championship team in a couple years aren't significantly different than any other team's system.

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Originally Posted by USAFChief

trying to project years into the future in baseball is fun, but pretty much impossible. Just my opinion, but I would almost always trade the future for the present in baseball. I would trade places with Detroit in a heartbeat, KC as well. And off the top of my head I would most likely swap with the Chisox as well. Cleveland I'd have to look at more closely, but whatever the difference between farm systems, the chances of the Twins minor league system turning out a championship team in a couple years aren't significantly different than any other team's system.

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Detroit can spend their way out of a bad farm system (to an extent, anyway). But have you looked at Cleveland or Chicago's farm systems? They're awful, especially Chicago. Mid-market teams can't succeed with a complete dearth of minor league help. Chicago and Cleveland have a ceiling of mediocrity and a floor of terrible over the next several years. Their Major League rosters are meh and there is virtually zero help on the way in the minors. At least the Twins and Royals have promise. Detroit is kind of playing their own game since their owner will do whatever it takes to win a championship before he dies. And once he punches his card, it's highly unlikely the team will continue to overspend the way it has in recent years (and he could die tomorrow for all we know).

Give me Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Gibson, Meyer, May, Hicks, etc. over any other farm in the division, excepting the Royals.

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Originally Posted by USAFChief

trying to project years into the future in baseball is fun, but pretty much impossible. Just my opinion, but I would almost always trade the future for the present in baseball. I would trade places with Detroit in a heartbeat, KC as well. And off the top of my head I would most likely swap with the Chisox as well. Cleveland I'd have to look at more closely, but whatever the difference between farm systems, the chances of the Twins minor league system turning out a championship team in a couple years aren't significantly different than any other team's system.

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As logical as your point might seem, the Twins have always won doing the exactly opposite approach. The cores of their winning teams have always been home grown or players acquired as prospects. Typically the present is overpriced in terms of what it cost in future value. How many years of serviceable players did KC trade for two years each of Davis and Shields? That approach doesn't make sense to me, and as a fan, I hope for the Twins as well. It's not really about projecting what happens in the future, it's about getting numbers of controllable players who you believe have talent. The more of those players you have arriving at the same time the better it is for your team--the rest, as you suggest, is left unpredicatable.

When the Twins have a better core, I'm all for overpaying for the present, but that's not this year and probably not next year either. Gulp.

^ +1

Trading the future for the present doesn't always work and trading the present for the future doesn't always work...

However... Competing with a weak farm system will be damn expensive and very inconsistent... Because when you fail... You fail and spend big money for the failure.

The only way to field a competitive club every year or most years is to build a strong farm system and that is how trading your future for the present will kill ya.

While I agree with what the Twins are doing long term it should be pointed out that the White Sox have consistently had one of the lowest ranked farm systems in baseball. I've expected this crash for a long time and yet they have continued to be competitive and have even turned out a few homegrown players during that time. The Tigers have also had weak farm systems for a long time and they haven't crashed either but they have had a stronger MLB core.

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Originally Posted by kab21

While I agree with what the Twins are doing long term it should be pointed out that the White Sox have consistently had one of the lowest ranked farm systems in baseball. I've expected this crash for a long time and yet they have continued to be competitive and have even turned out a few homegrown players during that time. The Tigers have also had weak farm systems for a long time and they haven't crashed either but they have had a stronger MLB core.

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Detroit's recent success was built on the back of historically awful seasons (and the resulting draft picks) from the early 2000s. To sustain that success, they've been spending money like drunken Democrats. Either way, the base of their success was internal, though it was heavily supplemented by cold, hard cash.

As for Chicago, they haven't made the playoffs since 2008 and haven't done much since 2005 when their team was... you guessed it, largely built from within.

Mid-market teams just don't win without help from the farm. The best you can hope for is consistent mediocrity.

The point wasn't that Chicago has been great but rather that they haven't crashed (like the Twins) despite having awful farm systems. We've been expecting them to crash for as long as I remember. We've also been expecting the Tigers to crash for several years now and we're still waiting. Other than Verlander the Tigers didn't hit on any early picks in the 2000's so that's not why they were good.

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Originally Posted by kab21

The point wasn't that Chicago has been great but rather that they haven't crashed (like the Twins) despite having awful farm systems. We've been expecting them to crash for as long as I remember. We've also been expecting the Tigers to crash for several years now and we're still waiting. Other than Verlander the Tigers didn't hit on any early picks in the 2000's so that's not why they were good.

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But they flipped a bunch of prospects for Miggy and restocked by trading guys like Granderson, drafted during their awful stretch. It all stemmed from those early to mid 2000s picks. Then they spent a **** ton of money to supplement those players.

I keep expecting the Sox to implode but Williams manages to assemble a mediocre team every year. Of course, they also haven't won 90 games in over five years and have only made the playoffs once.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

But they flipped a bunch of prospects for Miggy and restocked by trading guys like Granderson, drafted during their awful stretch. It all stemmed from those early to mid 2000s picks. Then they spent a **** ton of money to supplement those players.

I keep expecting the Sox to implode but Williams manages to assemble a mediocre team every year. Of course, they also haven't won 90 games in over five years and have only made the playoffs once.

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I think you need to review all of those high picks that they were drafting when they were terrible. Pretty much the only high pick that turned out was Verlander and they were able to trade two others for the right to give MCab a Johan type extension.

I also strongly dislike everything the Sox have done building their but they haven't collapsed and despite having horrible farm systems for years they have produced some good players.

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Originally Posted by kab21

I think you need to review all of those high picks that they were drafting when they were terrible. Pretty much the only high pick that turned out was Verlander and they were able to trade two others for the right to give MCab a Johan type extension.

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My point isn't that they drafted well with those high picks, it's that their resurgence was borne from internal players, not external signings. After that point, it was supplemented with money but to start off, they did it from the farm.

Actually your point and others in this thread was that the Tigers were going to get bad fast. We've been expecting that for several years and they are still very good. It's not going to happen as fast as you think unless they lose Verlander and MCab in back to back offseasons but that would kill most teams. I countered with the discussions from the last 5 years that we've been having about the White Sox inevitable collapse and they've managed to win 88 and 89 games in recent seasons (conveniently below your 90 win mark).

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I wouldn't trade places with either the White Sox or Indians and you'd have to make a convincing argument to trade places with Detroit, a team that is going to be good for another year or two and then will get real bad, real fast.

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While I agree about the White Sox and Indians I would certainly trade places with Detroit.

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Originally Posted by kab21

Actually your point and others in this thread was that the Tigers were going to get bad fast. We've been expecting that for several years and they are still very good. It's not going to happen as fast as you think unless they lose Verlander and MCab in back to back offseasons but that would kill most teams. I countered with the discussions from the last 5 years that we've been having about the White Sox inevitable collapse and they've managed to win 88 and 89 games in recent seasons (conveniently below your 90 win mark).

While I agree about the White Sox and Indians I would certainly trade places with Detroit.

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The Tigers haven't gotten bad yet because they continue to raise their payroll well beyond what anyone would have considered reasonable. There's only so far they can go with that, though. Sooner or later, that bubble is going to burst. Even the Yankees can't spend their way out of player development and their payroll ceiling is considerably higher than Detroit's. And when the bubble does burst, it will hit them hard because they've signed several guys to astronomical contracts that won't age well.

As for the White Sox, they've been pretty mediocre in a bad division. 88 and 89 wins in six years (only one of which turned into a playoff berth after a required game 163) isn't going to impress me much. Williams has done a pretty good job with an awful farm system (that he continues to plunder at every opportunity) but sooner or later, his luck will run out. It's merely surprising that it hasn't already and that the Sox continue to keep their heads above water.