No catcher has as many as 2700 hits...
Only 8 catchers have 2000 or more hits...be shocked if he doesn't get there. 730 to go.
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Lock? Not yet. He probably needs at least 2-3 decent seasons and up to 5 more total seasons (play out his contact). Too early to tell - he just has 9 season under his belt. After their first 9 seasons, Juan Gone, Darryl Strawberry, and Doc Gooden were "locks" too.
Is Pudge a "lock"? is Piazza a "lock"? Is Pedro a lock? Is Bonds a lock? Those are more meaningful discussions.
I just have a hard time talking about HOF credentials of players in their prime. Give them time.
Mauer is no lock at all to be a HOF. You want to factor in that he is putting up HOF numbers for a catcher, but he is no longer a full time catcher. So all stats he compiles me nothing if he keeps playing 1B.
By the way, I fully expect him to one day be a HOF. That would be the Twins Hall of Fame. Tony Oliva deserves to be in Cooperstown more than the Golden Boy Joe Mauer.
Except all the things he's done...as a catcher...as him being the ONLY catcher to EVER do, won't go away even if he's playing less catcher as his career goes on. BTW, it's Gardy who has him playing less catcher. Having Doumit there to fill in, Butera needing his playing time too, and with Morneau needing to play less at 1B due to doctor's recommendation, Mauer was the best choice to fill in.
But, by your post, you can tell you just dislike the guy...you really don't have much of an argument
He's still playing at least half the time at catcher, so I think he still counts as a catcher. And regardless, his stats count even if he'd DHing, just maybe not as much to some voters if he stops playing a significant defensive position.
Oliva was a terrific player and has a reasonable HoF case, but the injuries really costs him and the last 5 years of his career added very little to his case for the Hall. Oliva had an 8 year run where he was an elite hitter and was an all-star for all of them. But his case is based on the premise that his peak was high enough to to get him in absent real longevity, as the other 7 years of his career just don't help him.
Mauer, on the other hand, is already almost even with Oliva's career WAR, above him in OPS+ and looks to be able to add several more seasons of significant value. The only way Oliva is above as a player Mauer is if Mauer stops playing in May and ends his career.
Did anyone read Gleeman's latest article on Mauer, dated Dec 28?
I just read it and found it informative. Here is a link.