Only 8 catchers have 2000 or more hits...be shocked if he doesn't get there. 730 to go.
Lock? Not yet. He probably needs at least 2-3 decent seasons and up to 5 more total seasons (play out his contact). Too early to tell - he just has 9 season under his belt. After their first 9 seasons, Juan Gone, Darryl Strawberry, and Doc Gooden were "locks" too.
Is Pudge a "lock"? is Piazza a "lock"? Is Pedro a lock? Is Bonds a lock? Those are more meaningful discussions.
I just have a hard time talking about HOF credentials of players in their prime. Give them time.
Mauer is no lock at all to be a HOF. You want to factor in that he is putting up HOF numbers for a catcher, but he is no longer a full time catcher. So all stats he compiles me nothing if he keeps playing 1B.
By the way, I fully expect him to one day be a HOF. That would be the Twins Hall of Fame. Tony Oliva deserves to be in Cooperstown more than the Golden Boy Joe Mauer.
But, by your post, you can tell you just dislike the guy...you really don't have much of an argument
Oliva was a terrific player and has a reasonable HoF case, but the injuries really costs him and the last 5 years of his career added very little to his case for the Hall. Oliva had an 8 year run where he was an elite hitter and was an all-star for all of them. But his case is based on the premise that his peak was high enough to to get him in absent real longevity, as the other 7 years of his career just don't help him.
Mauer, on the other hand, is already almost even with Oliva's career WAR, above him in OPS+ and looks to be able to add several more seasons of significant value. The only way Oliva is above as a player Mauer is if Mauer stops playing in May and ends his career.
Did anyone read Gleeman's latest article on Mauer, dated Dec 28?
Here is a link.