Thread: Article: Is Joe Mauer a lock for the HOF?

He was underpaid every year he was healthy before 2011. In 2012 he was back right on the value of his contract.

Originally Posted by Gardy32

I can't speak for other people, but the main reason I care about players' salaries is that the team only has so much money to spend. We can argue about self-imposed caps by the Twins all day long, but when it comes down to it, they only spend so much on the players.

It's all about value. A team built around players earning less than they're "worth" should have money to go out and get that slugger on the free agent market. They can go get that SP that puts them over the edge. I want to have a team that's being paid $100M but WAR says should be paid $200M or $300M based on production. This year has basically been punted on, but rebuilding should mean shedding contracts that overpay (think Vernon Wells and Soriano) based on past production. Which is good for the long-term health of the organization. Then you build your nucleus by locking down consistent players for under market value, leading to an excess of money to fill out the roster with whatever you couldn't develop on the farm.

Basically I care about players' salaries because i think that getting better value out of current contracts leads to more wins and the potential to fill holes.

Sorry this was so basic and maybe even patronizing. I just think it's something that should be cared about and understood for everyone hoping for their team to get W's.

What players are paid is important on a year-to-year level, and I agree that it's important to how the team accumulates wins. On the other hand, how often have you heard about the contract terms of a player who has been retired long enough to be eligible for hall consideration, much less whether those contract terms were reasonable under the circumstances? Never? Heck, given salary inflation, the "exorbitant" amounts paid to some of the top free agents of even 15 to 20 years ago look pretty quaint. I doubt it becomes a consideration for hall voters.

But perhaps more importantly, let's consider what would happen if it were a consideration. Not only would the Yankees' free publicity put many more Yankees in the hall of fame than is warranted, but that fact that enormous contracts burden the Yankees less than the Twins would mean that any Twin with an enormous contract would be hobbled while any Yankee with the same contract would receive fair consideration. And God forbid you spent your career with the Rays (I'm looking at you, Mr. Longoria). It wouldn't be the Hall of Fame, it would be the Hall of Yankees (and now maybe Sox and Dodgers).

Contract terms should not be a consideration. Thankfully, I don't think they really are.

I would say he is close right now, but needs 2-3 more good years, and not to have 5 bad years that leave a bad memory in voters' minds. The recency effect has played havoc on a few candidates.

I think Mauer is almost a lock at this point. Two more very good seasons and he's in unless he's caught in a dog-fighting ring or something along those lines. Writers will be falling over themselves to vote in a guy who exudes professionalism, is quiet and humble, and played for his hometown team his entire career. New age SABR guys will love his WAR and OBP while traditionalists will vote him in for his batting championships and Silver Slugger awards.

The hair, don't forget the hair. Silky smooth....

His value is as a catcher. He HAS to catcher a greater percentage of games. He can be another Yogi if he keeps his average up, wins another title or two...but he has to be recognized as one of the greater catchers. Right now, any play at DH at this stage (and the next 4-5 years) diminishes his chances. He can go in as a Twins icon if he plays beyond his current contract and gets those 20-years of same team service under his belt. Sorta the Ripken factor. But he could also fall into the Mattingly category. But it is always hard to ignore a lifetime .325 hitter with 15+ years of play.

Originally Posted by Rosterman

His value is as a catcher. He HAS to catcher a greater percentage of games. He can be another Yogi if he keeps his average up, wins another title or two...but he has to be recognized as one of the greater catchers. Right now, any play at DH at this stage (and the next 4-5 years) diminishes his chances. He can go in as a Twins icon if he plays beyond his current contract and gets those 20-years of same team service under his belt. Sorta the Ripken factor. But he could also fall into the Mattingly category. But it is always hard to ignore a lifetime .325 hitter with 15+ years of play.

The Mattingly comp makes sense on the surface but it's not a good comp when you drill down on the players. Mattingly had a career WAR of 45. Mauer isn't even 30 yet and his WAR is 40. Mattingly had one batting title and one MVP as a first baseman (the most power-laden position on the diamond). Mauer has three batting titles and one MVP as a catcher (the least power-laden position on the diamond).

If Mauer has two more seasons with a .320 average, .400 OBP, and plays 80 games behind the plate, he's in. He'll be close to a 50 WAR player at that point. If he catches more than 80 games (and I think he will, even JR has said as much), that WAR is even higher.

For a lock? Mauer needs a few more All-Star seasons, and needs significant MVP votes in a few more seasons, and needs to rack up healthy career totals. Five more healthy years with three of them at an All-Star level, and we're talking lock. Something below that, but still decent longevity, and his chances remain good.

Looks like he'll end up catching 10k to 12k innings which if he can return too his gold glove defense that won't loose him votes. I do think a 4th batting title will really help his cause and because he is a catcher he won't be held to the same offensive standards as OF and 1B but he will be held to higher offensive standards. I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well. I also think Higher WAR totals and batting average totals will be what gets him in. (hense the comment about an extra batting title).

Originally Posted by Brandon

I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well.

By the time Mauer is eligible for votes, Posey's career will already be in much clearer focus - who's to say Posey isn't a first-baseman by that time? A lot can happen.

Originally Posted by Sssuperdave

I can think of three scenarios, and in 2 of the 3 he makes the hall of fame.

Scenario #1 (most likely in my opinion): Mauer has another productive 5-10 years, no more MVPs or 1000+ OPS's like 2009, but quite a few years over .300, and maybe another batting title, evenutally changes positions. I think he's a hall-of-fame lock under this scenario.

Scenario #2: The wheels fall off.. for some reason or other, perhaps injury, his number revert to 2011 levels permanently. He makes it another 5 - 8 years, but isn't very good. I don't think he has quite enough to make the hall under this scenario, and fans are incensed at his contract.

Scenario #3: He has a tragic career ending injury ala Puckett. Like Puckett, I think he makes the hall of fame under this scenario. Yes, he doesn't quite have Puckett's slugging/power numbers, but he has a stretch of 9 years that is arguably the best 9-year offensive stretch for any catcher in history. I think voters would give him the benefit of the doubt that scenario #1 would have happened, and he gets in.

Great reply--the third scenario describes Campy to a "T"--I was a kid when Dodgers moved from Brooklyn and then Campy had his serious auto crash--and yes got in after a fairly short career (in comparison to other HOFers).

I do think that Mauer needs to have another 2 or 3 seasons at least at his 2012 level--with most of his ABs coming as catcher to make the HOF. If he doesnt produce another 300BA or a year with power numbers he will come up a little short...

Originally Posted by Brandon

I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well.

Three years ago, you could have said the same thing about Brian McCann. Let's see if Posey can post more than one 4+ WAR season before suggesting that he's HoF-bound.

I think Mauer needs to get over 10K innings at catcher and still be seen as at least a decent defensive catcher, along with at least 2000 hits. Another 4 seasons at 2010/2012 levels should get him in even if he has several additional years in decline and/or playing mostly 1B/DH/3B.

Hard to call him the best hitting catcher with Piazza out there, but a couple of additional seasons at Mauer's current pace and he's clearly at least #2, passing guys like Bench and Berra.

Joe's definitely on a HoF trajectory. I can't call him a lock; a lot of voters would probably have problems putting him in if his career ended at 9 seasons or so. But he's started getting close and I expect he'll make it. He'll get the high BA guys, the more modern OBP guys, he should have the WAR, the hardware (gold gloves, silver sluggers, the MVP, the batting titles) to make him a fairly easy choice the way he's going. If he leads the Twins back to the playoffs in the next 3-4 seasons while playing at a high level, he's got to be in, don't you think?

We are watching greatness. Occasionally frustrating greatness (razzin-frazzin' double plays!) but true greatness nonetheless.

Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

Mauer is a lock now. 3 batting titles, as a catcher, when no other catcher has more than 1. He's got an MVP, gold gloves, and silver sluggers. He's in. Period.

Originally Posted by savvyspy

Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

Wow.

One thing to keep in mind is when Mauer becomes eligible there's going to be more voters who don't just look a at the baseball card numbers. They are going to look at WAR and on-base to fully judge a players worth.

Originally Posted by savvyspy

Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

It's nice to know that I'm safe from posting the most ridiculous thing of the day.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I think Mauer is almost a lock at this point. Two more very good seasons and he's in unless he's caught in a dog-fighting ring or something along those lines. Writers will be falling over themselves to vote in a guy who exudes professionalism, is quiet and humble, and played for his hometown team his entire career. New age SABR guys will love his WAR and OBP while traditionalists will vote him in for his batting championships and Silver Slugger awards.

Agree and someone mentioned seeing him as a future Twins manager.... that would be sweeeet!!!

Originally Posted by CDog

It's nice to know that I'm safe from posting the most ridiculous thing of the day.

Way safe