Thread: Article: State of the Starting Corps

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

Actually, we've reached the point where debates about epistemological skepticism are being applied to the free agent market. I can't tell if that's better or worse.

I hate the offseason. I'm going back to the thread about sexy GMs.

Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports that the Cubs have signed free agent right-hander Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million contract.



Source: Patrick Mooney on Twitter

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Marcum... Jackson... Villanueva and McCarthy... Are clearly in the average group. I don't think any of them are zero hangers.

Unless you're placing Correia and Pelfrey in that latter group of 'about to be unemployed', then you're saying they're really no different from Marcum and Jackson, right? So if you can't get Felix Hernandez you might as well not sweat the difference between Marcum and Correia? If you mean that neither will make the Twins contenders in 2013, that's fine.

But if you mean there's no difference ever between Marcum and a guy who gives up an extra run every nine innings, then I disagree. In fact I think it's safe to say that you're leaving out an entire group of pitchers, those who are not aces but are consistently above average. Having two of those guys in addition to an ace and two Correias instead of an ace and four Correias sounds to me like the difference between a potential contender and an also-ran.

What kid of gun does the Cubs have? We should get one of them!

Originally Posted by old nurse

What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference?

Does Mickey Storey tickle your fancy? The 73-win Blue Jays plucked him off the waiver wire just yesterday. Alex Anthopoulos has been stockpiling these AAAA guys all offseason for almost nothing.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better.

Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009).

That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly.

Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

The only name left that would be an upgrade over Deduno/Gibson/Hendrix is Lohse. Ryan doesn't like to bring guys back who leave on their own accord. I would have loved another starter, but I doubt they will get one before Spring Training. The best hope is that one of the three I just mentioned steps up in camp and asserts himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter. My money is on Deduno, who seemed to turn a corner last year and has been lights out in the Dominican league. Perhaps they can start with Gibson in the pen and he can be the first guy to fill in when one of the other four falters.

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Unless you're placing Correia and Pelfrey in that latter group of 'about to be unemployed', then you're saying they're really no different from Marcum and Jackson, right? So if you can't get Felix Hernandez you might as well not sweat the difference between Marcum and Correia? If you mean that neither will make the Twins contenders in 2013, that's fine.

But if you mean there's no difference ever between Marcum and a guy who gives up an extra run every nine innings, then I disagree. In fact I think it's safe to say that you're leaving out an entire group of pitchers, those who are not aces but are consistently above average. Having two of those guys in addition to an ace and two Correias instead of an ace and four Correias sounds to me like the difference between a potential contender and an also-ran.

I think you and I are going to end up disagreeing a little but not by a large margin. It's your own personal call if you want to make more piles of pitchers.

Myself... I believe it's all about each individual game and if you look at it from each individual game. Only the zero hanger... (and there is only a few of these guys) are going to let your team take the day off on occasion. The average pitcher has to go out and pitch in the context of that game. In the end the numbers end up being what the numbers are and they change from year to year.

Comparing Marcum to Correia... First off... The only thing I didn't like about the Correia signing was the 2nd year. 5 Million for an option(pitcher) seems to be the going rate for Free Agents. If the Option (Correia) fails which is possible. He still gets another year... The whole idea of quantity is being able to move away from guys that don't get the job done. That makes the 2nd year confusing to me.

Maybe it was a case of it taking a 2nd year to land him. Maybe TR has a lot of lines in the water with no bites so he said OK to the 2nd year to actually pull in a fish instead of coming home empty. I don't know.

But Back to comparing Marcum to Correia... Yes... Statistically Marcum has been the better pitcher of the two. That's why I like Marcum for at least 3 years... He's been very consistent... But Game by Game... It's still a match up against the guy on the mound for the other team and then doing it again in the next start.

Neither Pitcher has the ability to shut down the other team consistently with elite stuff and neither pitcher is showing any evidence of being someone who isn't competing somewhat decently.

Another problem when it comes to chasing down those stats is this... It's a moving Target... You offer a contract to a guy with a 3.39 ERA and he shows up and throws a 4.20. Then you cut that guy loose and sign a guy with a 3.70 because he is looking better than the guy with a 4.20... And the 4.20 guy signs elsewhere and puts up a 3.50 the next year and the 3.70 guys is at 4.00. It's a lotta tail chasing.

Jackson gets 13 Million and Correia Gets 5. I don't know what Marcum is going to get but you are still spending money on shades of mediocrity... averageness.

We need options because we don't know what we are going to get from anyone in 2013... Including Diamond. Diamond might be a 4.88 and Deduno might be a 3.00. S

In a nutshell... Game by Game... All we should be asking for is pitchers who will compete against the other guy on the mound in the context of each game.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Does Mickey Storey tickle your fancy? The 73-win Blue Jays plucked him off the waiver wire just yesterday. Alex Anthopoulos has been stockpiling these AAAA guys all offseason for almost nothing.

And right under TR's advantageously-positioned nose. Nothing to see here...move along...asleep at the wheel...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Originally Posted by old nurse

The lack of Lannan being thrown into the Span trade was evidence that Ryan did not think he was worth the arbitration price. That proved to be accurate with his low figure he signed for.

Waiver wire pickups are different than free agents. What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference? Essentially they have been fringe AAAA players. There are plenty of people complaining of the last bunch he signed.

Storey is one recent prospect that should have been a no-brainer. More guys than just prospects pop up on the waiver wire. Vargas, for example.

FWIW, Lannan has an incentive-based deal that puts him in the same price range as his projected arb number.

Not one poster on this very long comment thread has said anything about the availability of pitching this offseason. Fact is, prices are very high and quality is very low. There are a handful of decent guys who would cost way more then they're worth. All others are back-of-the-rotation types. They could choose different guys in that class (not a fan of Corriea myself), but I don't have a problem with passing on the likes of Anibel Sanchez at 4/80.

Do you see the prices getting any lower in the future?

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Like you I'm hoping they concentrate on the future, but they could've been better this year while getting a head start on the future instead of wasting time and money with guys like Correia.

This.

Why does TR remind me of the Argentine Admiral doing that cheap paint job on the ARA General Belgrano in 1982, just before the start of the Falkland Island war? (Note to TR, the drab paint job you're putting on the 2013 roster isn't doing anything to stop the torpedo attack from the Tigers and White Sox that sinks yet another Twins season )

Originally Posted by old nurse

So you should ignore the tomorrows? OK Gibson or Pelfrey could be as good as Baker. They individually might pitch as much this year as Baker does. Worley as good as Feldman. DeVries, Deduno or Duensing as good as Vilanueva

I certainly didn't ignore the tomorrows. The original topic was the state of the starting staff for 2013. Baker, Gibson, Pelfrey, three sets of damaged goods, one with a demonstrably superior track record, Baker. Worley was acquired via a trade, so there was a significant roster cost involved. Villanueva vs.? Again, a MLB track record vs 3 crapshoot guys.

I repeat, now with the additional signing of Jackson (who I pointed out one year ago could have been signed for less than what the Cubs just gave him) the Cubs have assembled a FA starting rotation for today and tomorrow. The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Not one poster on this very long comment thread has said anything about the availability of pitching this offseason. Fact is, prices are very high and quality is very low. There are a handful of decent guys who would cost way more then they're worth. All others are back-of-the-rotation types. They could choose different guys in that class (not a fan of Corriea myself), but I don't have a problem with passing on the likes of Anibel Sanchez at 4/80.

That's the price of pitching in today's market, and it's not likely to get any better. If the Twins want to improve their staff before some of these prospects hopefully come up and make an impact, then overpaying is really their only choice. They have the money so I don't really see the downside. You failed to mention that these back-of-the-rotation types are also getting way more than they're worth.

Originally Posted by jokin

The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

Diamond? Berrios?

Originally Posted by jokin

This.

Why does TR remind me of the Argentine Admiral doing that cheap paint job on the ARA General Belgrano in 1982, just before the start of the Falkland Island war? (Note to TR, the drab paint job you're putting on the 2013 roster isn't doing anything to stop the torpedo attack from the Tigers and White Sox that sinks yet another Twins season )

I just got caught in a wikipedia tornado.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

Lannan is 4 years younger than Correia and is flat out better than Correia (Correia had one relatively decent season- 4 YEARS AGO) and would have cost less besides. This isn't that hard.

Originally Posted by 70charger

I just got caught in a wikipedia tornado.

Cmon 70s. I know you're old enough to remember that paint job.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Diamond? Berrios?

Berrios probably not til 2016. Based on Diamond's 2nd half drop-off in performance, I still have doubts about his sustainability to remain as effective for 3 more years. (Hope I'm wrong)

Originally Posted by jokin

Cmon 70s. I know you're old enough to remember that paint job.

My car is older than I am.