Thread: Article: Health Permitting, Pelfrey Could Deliver

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I've read the article Nick. And I've given you a little bit of my heart - as you can see - because I agree with you.

Does he have any arbitration years left?

No. He's over five years of service, so he'll be a free agent after the season.

Another awesome signing!! And no I'm not joking. I <3 Terry Ryan!!!

This is a far superior signing to the Correia signing, but that's not saying much...

Pelfrey was a 1st round pick... in 2005. But his career numbers aren't much different than Correia's marks.

Pelfrey career: 50-54, 4.36 ERA (92 ERA+), 4.50 xFIP, 5.08 K/9, 3.19 BB/9 (4.74 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 4.88 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 in 2011).

Correia career: 60-65, 4.54 ERA (88 ERA+), 4.44 xFIP, 6.01 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 (4.21 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 4.68 K/9, 2.42 BB/9 in 2012).

They're basically the same type and quality of pitcher (even if Pelfrey's arm is in shape... and we'll see about that). I like Correia a little better because of the question about Pelfrey's health, but also because Correia's control has been a bit better and his groundball rate has been higher, lately. I think there's a fair chance that either one of these guys could be a decent back-end, pitch-to-contact, groundball, 4.50 ERA pitcher. But, I doubt the ceiling, or upside, is much higher than that for either of them, too.

We actually signed a Scott Boras client, so that's something

A one-year deal is rarely wrong. But still 4 million? Weird. Anyway, I like adding Pelfrey sans Correia. Now I am a bit worried. Jurrjens is a good choice right now. The upside there is pretty substantial.

I don't mind scraping the bottom if they make one mid-level acquisition. Scraping and then going for just above the scrapings (Correia) is not good at all.

"It's just a matter of who is going to emerge." Umm, I think there is a bit more to success than that. Farmers don't just buy seed and throw it on the ground to see what "is going to emerge."

Nick, I think that you have done a great job laying this out, and let's all hope that Pelfrey pans out . I just wish that the Twins had at least one option year in case he is really good.

Couldn't they have sign pelfrey before correria this feels like a make up signing. One more starter they need to get.

Don't love the move...don't hate it either....

would sure rather have paid baker the X-tra 1-2 Million needed compared to Pelfrey to Keep Scotty Baker himself.

But Pelfrey has more upside than Corriea, Blacky, Duensing, Hendriks, DeVries, and Deduno . The only exceptions i'd say are Gibson and Worley for the 2013 staff.

Now if AAron Hicks starts off in AAA .....for a minumum 3 months i'd be a happy guy heading into 2013...with maybe 1 more Pitcher and a little competition for T-Money Plouffe at 3B.

Pelfrey was once talked about as the centerpiece for the Johan Santana deal back in 2007 / 08 .

Instead we took Humber / Gomez/ Guerra and Mulvey.
But i remember preferring Pelfrey to at least Humber and possibly Mulvey as well. Turns out they're all basically the same pitcher with the exception of Mulvey and Guerra who look like quad A guys.

He certainly can log the innings. Also on the bright side, the Twins don't need to add a Tommy John surgery into the contract negotiations as a benny because he's already got one. [insert rim shot] As long as the search is not over for more, I approve of this signing.

I like this signing by itself, but in context, it is a bit of a reminder that Scot Baker wasn't re-signed. He's the one guy I wanted out of this group and he signed awfully cheap compared with the free-agent crop. He wasn't signed because someone thought they could do better. They couldn't.

Good article, Nick. Taken by itself, there's nothing wrong with this signing and there does seem to be some potential for upside (of course, there's also potential for downside but that's the whole point of taking a flier).

It appears that Ryan's approach to building a starting staff is now the same as the Twins traditional approach to building a buillpen -- just get enough options and something will work out. It has worked most of the time for the Twins BP but there have been some notable exceptions. I guess we'll see whether it works for building a starting staff.

I just want to see some action on the remaining $15-$25m that is available to him this offseason. Either purchase some assets that might be helpful down the road or publicly commit to carrying over that money for future use. Either the team needs to abide by its own 50+% policy or they need to publicly acknowledge that they have abandoned it. No spin on this, Mr. St. Peter.

I guess I agree with most everyone else. It's not a bad signing and could work out but I'd like to see the FO do a little bit better, too.

I think our defense in center field will be good, no matter who gets the job out of ST. Mastro, Hicks and Benson should all be plus defenders out there. I'm assuming Carroll starts at second. I have no idea who gets the job at short but hopefully we have a glove guy up the middle, since I'm pretty sure he won't hit.

This is a decent signing. If he makes it fine, if he looks real bad the cost is not super high. Much better than Corriea