Thread: Article: Health Permitting, Pelfrey Could Deliver

Originally Posted by twinsfaninsaudi

Another awesome signing!! And no I'm not joking. I <3 Terry Ryan!!!

Um, the other being Correia?

With a defense that may equal some of the poorest or porous (take your pick) in the league these kinds of pitchers don't seem like wise investments. Maybe it's time for Terry to find some guys that can catch the ball?

This is like signing Scott Baker on the cheap. I've always liked him, despite the low K totals. At the very least, he and Gibson can tag team in their first full year back from TJ. And if he performs, they can extend him. Solid move. I'm still waiting for Ryan to sign a "pretty darn good pitcher," though.

I don't mind it...I actually kind of forgotten about him. This is the kind of contract Correia should've gotten...oh well not my money. Hope Pelfrey works out.

I agree with everything you say, Nick, and it's true -- it's a much better pickup than Kevin Correia.

But "better than a two-year, ten-million-dollar contract to a below average National League pitcher" is a pretty low standard to beat.

Shouldn't be be going for, "offers at least a chance of helping the Twins win, either now or in the future"?

If you look at Pelfry's numbers--he seems to be a Brett Saberhagen type--a great year followed by a mediocre (at best one). He was great in 2008 and 2010--good ERA, 200 IP double digit wins. In 2009 he sucked with an ERA over 5. In 2011 he was slightly better. In 2012 he was hurt. His upside (2008 and 2010) is greater than anybody but Diamond. If we get that in 2013--fine--tell him thanks for the year and bring up Meyer. If we dont get that--he is gone costing about 5million. I like this,

Originally Posted by cmathewson

And if he performs, they can extend him.

This is the weak part of the signing; Boras is his agent. While I am no Boras-hater, I don't think the track record says a successful Pelfrey would sign for a team-friendly 2014 contract.

Originally Posted by frightwig

But, I doubt the ceiling, or upside, is much higher than that for either of them, too.

Exactly, I don't understand a number of the arguments being made here.

1) I thought Baker not having a team option in his deal was part of why it was a no-brainer not to sign him? This is totally brushed over when it was a central point in the Baker deal. Not to mention the fact that Pelfrey went in for TJ a full month later than Baker? If you read your response to this signing and Bakers you continue to have a lot of conflicting remarks.

2) Upside? Based on where he was drafted? C'mon...we're better than that right? Frightwig listed some damn fine statistics - Pelfrey's prospect listing 6 years ago and his draft position are not real sound places to hang your hat. He's not a bad pitcher, but that is pretty flimsy. For 1.5M more we would've gotten a clearly better pitcher who happened to do it against the AL, not the NL.

3) Durability? So apart from missing an entire season and likely not being ready until May of this one counts this in the positives? That's like saying my criminal record was fine except for that year I spent in jail for a bank robbery. Durability HAS to be a concern this first year, it's simply impossible to count that as a positive. If this were a two year deal I'd grant we might see it return in 2014...but in 2013? That is optimism with little to no basis for a guy that won't even be a year removed from major elbow surgery two months into the season.

Originally Posted by by jiminy

I agree with everything you say, Nick, and it's true -- it's a much better pickup than Kevin Correia.

But "better than a two-year, ten-million-dollar contract to a below average National League pitcher" is a pretty low standard to beat.

Shouldn't be be going for, "offers at least a chance of helping the Twins win, either now or in the future"?

+1. Looks like Ryan has lowered the bar enough with Correia that now we can look forward to the
"upside" of a guy released by a team that finished 11th in the NL in ERA and just traded away their best starter. Given their career 4.50-ish ERA's and the league switch, the Twins will be lucky if either of them manages an ERA much under 5.00.

On the other hand, Bill Smith lowered the GM bar so much that Ryan can hardly help but look like a genius.

Given the acquisition of the promised three starting pitchers apparently nicely under the "available budget" what is the likelihood a useful hitte is signed?

Yet another reason to bring up some young, fast outfielders.

Totally agree Jimbo.
And has quantity ever been better than quality?

Again with the Scott Baker crap Lev? It's time to move on. Not sure why you feel the need to relive the same argument every time any move is made.

I don't view Baker or Pelfrey as great fits for the Twins on one-year deals, but both are highly preferable to Correia's two-year deal. I wouldn't say my post was a ringing endorsement of this signing, more an observation that it makes a lot more sense than Ryan's first splash.

I will, however, say that Pelfrey is to me a more proven commodity than Baker. He has been healthy and good at the same time more often, despite being more than two years younger. His arm has held up FAR better than Baker's throughout his career. That's not irrelevant when you're talking about who's going to bounce back better from a major arm injury.

Also, their surgeries took place two weeks apart. It is a negligible difference.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

I wouldn't say my post was a ringing endorsement of this signing, more an observation that it makes a lot more sense than Ryan's first splash.

No, what you did was go positive on this signing in directly contradictory ways that you went negative on the Baker move. And you did some serious gymnastics to do it. I'm just calling you out on it, read your two blogs - they are basically Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde on the same points.

Baker has been a better pitcher in a tougher league, Pelfrey has been more durable. On a one year, "hope they rebound" deal - I'd personally defer to the better pitcher in that case. That doesn't change that your standards for "good deal/bad deal" totally flipped on their head. I don't mind Pelfrey, he's fine. But I was also fine with Baker for the very same reasons I'm fine with Pelfrey. You completely flipped on your own takes, I'm just calling you out on the consistency.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

No, what you did was go positive on this signing in directly contradictory ways that you went negative on the Baker move. And you did some serious gymnastics to do it. I'm just calling you out on it, read your two blogs - they are basically Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde on the same points.

Baker has been a better pitcher in a tougher league, Pelfrey has been more durable. On a one year, "hope they rebound" deal - I'd personally defer to the better pitcher in that case. That doesn't change that your standards for "good deal/bad deal" totally flipped on their head. I don't mind Pelfrey, he's fine. But I was also fine with Baker for the very same reasons I'm fine with Pelfrey. You completely flipped on your own takes, I'm just calling you out on the consistency.

I sense a pattern here. Nick seems to get his dual roles as a Twins fan and a baseball analyst faultily conflated, at times.

The only consistent thing that stands out about this signing is the recent pattern of warming up to Boras clients, conceivably Ryan is offering his services as a bridge contractor of Boras clients looking for a holding spot while waiting for a bigger payday down the road. Perhaps there is hope for some more Boras guys to get parked here short -term- Jurrjens, Lohse or....gulp.....Bourn?..... or take one of the above as tit-for-tat on signing the likes of Boras' lower-end stable of guys like Derek Lowe or Johnny Damon?

Commenting on one of Nick's pitching related articles without digging into your bag of Duensing strawmen? You're slipping.

Originally Posted by snepp

Commenting on one of Nick's pitching related articles without digging into your bag of Duensing strawmen? You're slipping.

Pavlovian defensive response? You're not slipping.

Originally Posted by snepp

Commenting on one of Nick's pitching related articles without digging into your bag of Duensing strawmen? You're slipping.

Why would Duensing be involved....did we trade for Pelfrey?

Originally Posted by jokin

Pavlovian defensive response? You're not slipping.

At least you've stopped denying it, that's a start.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Why would Duensing be involved....did we trade for Pelfrey?

No, but signing Pelfrey is just like making a trade.