Thread: Edwin Jackson

No one called him an elite pitcher, and he isn't going to get paid like one. I think you're underselling what average to slightly above average starters are worth and what they make.

I'm in the camp that if he puts up a 4 ERA with decent strikeouts for a full season, he's by far our best pitcher. Then he's a legit veteran opening day starter as opposed to livan, ponson, pavano, etc.

You can't say this:

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.

And then this:

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Last 3 years, Edwin Jackson has been an average pitcher. 100 ERA+
I wouldn't give him anything more than 7 million a year. Looking at a 3 year deal? Highest I'd go is 3yrs /19 Million Total.

And then claim that you're not saying that average pitchers are worth the MLB median wage.

And you're still using Jackson's career ERA in those quotes. His recent 4.10 ERA may not be much above his 4.4 career mark, but it is quite a bit better than the ~4.60 mark he was posting before he turned the corner at age 26. Using career stats of a guy in his late 20s is one of the worst forms of cherry picking. You're using rookie and early age seasons of a guy still in his prime. Just stop. You're weighting Jackson's age 20 season in 2004 the same as his age 28 season in 2012. If you're trying to use stats honestly to make a point, how do you justify that obvious miscalculation?

I don't see anyone here arguing that Jackson isn't a league average pitcher... But I do see a lot of people arguing that he's worth a hell of a lot more than $7m. And you don't need stats to see that. You merely need to look around and see guys like Dan Haren getting $13m in 2013.

Originally Posted by snepp

No one called him an elite pitcher, and he isn't going to get paid like one. I think you're underselling what average to slightly above average starters are worth and what they make.

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

Who want to do this? I haven't seen them. $16-17m is Anibal Sanchez money.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

Person. Not people. Let's not get carried away. You realize if we take his 12M salary last year.. the 16-17 is closer than your 6-7 a year you want to give him right? You should compare Correia stats compared to Jackson.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Who want to do this? I haven't seen them. $16-17m is Anibal Sanchez money.

second post of the thread. It was a comment saying "i wouldn't be pissed if they paid this a year for three years". I believe.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

One person is "people?"

Originally Posted by edavis0308

second post of the thread. It was a comment saying "i wouldn't be pissed if they paid this a year for three years". I believe.

Yes, but then another went on to justify that insane amount. Maybe just saying it was better than 7. I think 7 is closer to 10-12 than 16 is though.

Should have posted separately
It seems like too many people group Jackson together with Marcum, when Marcum is miles beyond Jackson. I really only used career ERA to show names, as in "Would you give this player that contract at any point in their career?" and I'll say the thinking was flawed on that. Some players consistently average the stats between mediocre Jackson and decent Jackson, so they aren't worth as much. I'll submit that Jackson is 10-12million range and that I've changed my mind some. The shock of 16-17 a year really did make me think people were overrating him (and that still is) so I wanted to go the other way and I went too far. That's not to say I'd ever sign Jackson for 3 years and that money since he's still extremely unpredictable. The Twins don't need him past 2014, because I think there will be much better options in the farm and free agency.

If this rebuild happens like we expect it to... We will be very young in 2014 and 2015. With a young roster almost certain to come... There will be a lot of salaries in the minimum range along with Joe Mauer.

In consideration of where the salary appears to be heading... And the money we already have off the books... I see no problem in offering a ridiculous contract for Marcum or Jackson. I don't care what they pay... Just land a pitcher that can contribute in 2013 and 2015.

We could do this in my opinion and still have money available for an additional free agent or two down the road if the team looks like a Free agent could bring a championship.

Just one... That's all I ask... Marcum or Jackson is what's left.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

If this rebuild happens like we expect it to... We will be very young in 2014 and 2015. With a young roster almost certain to come... There will be a lot of salaries in the minimum range along with Joe Mauer.

In consideration of where the salary appears to be heading... And the money we already have off the books... I see no problem in offering a ridiculous contract for Marcum or Jackson. I don't care what they pay... Just land a pitcher that can contribute in 2013 and 2015.

We could do this in my opinion and still have money available for an additional free agent or two down the road if the team looks like a Free agent could bring a championship.

Just one... That's all I ask... Marcum or Jackson is what's left.

And Brett Myers.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

And then claim that you're not saying that average pitchers are worth the MLB median wage.

I thought I said average pitchers are worth the average MLB pitcher's salary? Possibly a typo, but I'm pretty sure I never said that.

I'm in the camp that if you can get Jackson at 3/45.. you take it. You're getting a durable pitcher with strikeouts in his prime years. 3/48 I wouldn't kill the team for. We have money and we need a top of the rotation starter. I'm not giving that money to Marcum. He's got elbow issues. You get a deal on him for cheaper, its a whole different story.

Edit. A pitcher with an ERA around 4.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

I'm in the camp that if you can get Jackson at 3/45.. you take it. You're getting a durable pitcher with strikeouts in his prime years. 3/48 I wouldn't kill the team for. We have money and we need a top of the rotation starter. I'm not giving that money to Marcum. He's got elbow issues. You get a deal on him for cheaper, its a whole different story.

Sarcasm or serious?

I don't understand all the Edwin Jackson love, the dude just has never been that great. He isn't terrible, but is basically a back end rotation type guy (albeit much better then what we currently have) I would give him 3/30 but not a whole lot more (maybe 3/33 if I was pressed)

FWIW: He posted pretty close to Carl Pavano (when healthy) numbers in his ERA/ xFIP/ IP/ WAR etc (especially when you factor in his AL vs NL numbers)

I wouldn't give someone like that 15 mil a year.

That depends. In reality or your Bizzaro world? You realize how much money an oft injured Dan Haren got this year....right???

You need to get over the fact that this guy isn't a scrub. Guys that throw decent ERAs with strikeouts and durability cost money.. you can't get them at the Kevin Correia special discount price...right?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

I don't understand all the Edwin Jackson love, the dude just has never been that great. He isn't terrible, but is basically a back end rotation type guy (albeit much better then what we currently have) I would give him 3/30 but not a whole lot more (maybe 3/33 if I was pressed)

FWIW: He posted pretty close to Carl Pavano (when healthy) numbers in his ERA/ xFIP/ IP/ WAR etc (especially when you factor in his AL vs NL numbers)

I wouldn't give someone like that 15 mil a year.

I agree... But I think he's getting better. I remember watching him pitch for Tampa and thinking this guy is just a thrower hoping to get lucky. I saw him again with Chicago and he was much better... Ive watched him a few times since then and hes been good each time and His recent numbers do suggest that he has figured some stuff out.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

That depends. In reality or your Bizzaro world? You realize how much money an oft injured Dan Haren got this year....right???

You need to get over the fact that this guy isn't a scrub. Guys that throw decent ERAs with strikeouts and durability cost money.. you can't get them at the Kevin Correia special discount price...right?

Over paying for mediocrity is never a good idea. 3/33 is the right number for a guy like Jackson, 3/45 is not. I'd much rather they keep that 15 million free in 2014/2015 and just go into this season and commit to a rebuild. Keep that 15 mil to go after a front of the rotation guy in the future. Or just sign Marcum for less money anyways (who has a good shot to put up superior numbers)

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I agree... But I think he's getting better. I remember watching him pitch for Tampa and thinking this guy is just a thrower hoping to get lucky. I saw him again with Chicago and he was much better... Ive watched him a few times since then and hes been good each time and His recent numbers do suggest that he has figured some stuff out.

Yeah, I mean I just see him as a pretty inconsistent pitcher, maybe I am wrong. I don't think he is bad, I just don't think he is worth over paying for (where as I think a guy like Sanchez or Haren would have been worth over paying for)