Thread: Edwin Jackson

Originally Posted by edavis0308

Uh.. a #4 on a good team? I think your perception is a bit skewed here.

Doug Fister, the #3 on the Tigers, was much better. Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants #3, is much better. Fister and Vogelsong are both notably cheaper too. Jackson was the #5 on the Nationals. The Rangers also had 3 pitchers better than Jackson. That's the 4 top teams.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Don't they, though? I know the number was around $7m for awhile but after this offseason, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that number has risen a fair amount in recent weeks.

Anyway, I'm not arguing the accuracy of the numbers... Just using them to point out that Edwin Jackson is worth a hell of a lot more than $6m and change a year.

I agree with your primary point, I was just quibbling over the dollars/per. At least as far as FG's is concerned, they've always shown free agent dollars-to-wins working out to that 4-5 million per win neighborhood.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Since when is a pitcher with a 4.10 ERA worth 10+ million? True I did underball a little bit, but if you haven't realized, I don't want him. Jackson is a #4 on a good team. I wouldn't even call him a 3 as far as performance goes.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Doug Fister, the #3 on the Tigers, was much better. Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants #3, is much better. Fister and Vogelsong are both notably cheaper too. Jackson was the #5 on the Nationals. The Rangers also had 3 pitchers better than Jackson. That's the 4 top teams.

Welcome to free agency. And all three would arguably be the best starter on our staff.

Let's start naming all the free agents (and former FAs) pitchers that have better career ERAs than Edwin Jackson, shall we? John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, Jair Jurrjens, Scott Baker, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard, Jeremy Guthrie, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf, Joe Saunders, Carlos Villanueva, Chris Young, Freddy Garcia, Kevin Millwood. There's a lot and while I wouldn't take all of these guys over Jackson, think of how much cheaper so many of these will end up being. Oh, and Liriano is tied with Edwin Jackson's career 4.40 ERA. Seriously, pretty much all pitchers besides Correia and some of the true scrubs are the only ones I could find with worse career ERA's than Edwin Jackson.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

Welcome to free agency. And all three would arguably be the best starter on our staff.

And yet the Twins aren't required to participate in getting ripped off.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

3/19? You're crazy. He said 16-17/year. You're underestimating the value of an "average pitcher".

I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.

I think you're discounting how much better Jackson has been the past few years. I don't know about you but I would pay the premium on him then the sale prices on Lowe, Wolf, Garcia, etc.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.

This isn't even worth debating if that is your approach to this subject.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.

What's that number look like when you only look at players past their arbitration years?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

What's that number look like when you only look at players past their arbitration years?

Don't know, but there were young guys who were non-tendered arbitration that have better career ERA's and will sign at a fraction at Jackson's price. There are people that want to overpay Jackson by 5-10 million a year of what he's actually worth and it's ridiculous.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

This isn't even worth debating if that is your approach to this subject.

Worth debating? I'm pretty sure I've made my point with stats, while you're just relying on smug ignorance, guesses, and personal opinion to make your point. Maybe you're right. It's not worth debating when I've been called crazy, insane, etc. when it comes to overpaying a player who probably would hurt us financially for 3 years. Jackson would be wasting cap space for the bright 2014 and 2015 teams.

So now we're down to using ERA as the sole metric of worth with no distinguishing between leagues.

I'm just gonna walk away from this thread now. Its baseball IQ dropped below my minimum threshold.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

So now we're down to using ERA as the sole metric of worth with no distinguishing between leagues.

I'm just gonna walk away from this thread now. Its baseball IQ dropped below my minimum threshold.

Yep.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

So now we're down to using ERA as the sole metric of worth with no distinguishing between leagues.

I'm just gonna walk away from this thread now. Its baseball IQ dropped below my minimum threshold.

You use WAR as the sole metric, Brock. You must be so much better and advanced to use a stat that's nearly as flawed as the NBA's PER!! Why should I pay a pitcher 3X the salary when he can't even post a higher ERA than another guy. Jackson's NL ERA: 4.51 Jackson's AL ERA: 4:33
That's such a HUGE difference, huh!

The problem I have with all of you is you're just disregarding what I'm saying and acting stuck up. You haven't said it, but you're just hinting at me with you're smartass comments when you have provided next to nothing in facts. All I've received is snooty opinions. Pretty pathetic, that this is what I get for a conversation. Especially from one of the moderators.

It has nothing to do with his AL vs NL ERA. It has everything to do with using a career ERA of a guy who is 28 and has pitched much better in the past three seasons and your assumption that an average pitcher is paid the average MLB wage. One is intentionally ignoring recent performance to cherry-pick stats and the other is a logical fallacy based on bad math.

And I never used WAR to prove anything. I used it to point out the absurdity of claiming and "average" pitcher is worth $6m a year when WORSE and OLDER pitchers are earning DOUBLE that amount.

You're seriously killing the guy for the years when he was 23 pitching for the DEVIL rays? I've watched the guys on your "list" pitch. Jackson is the second best pitcher on that "list". You can have your bargain bin Wolf, Lowe, Garcia, Saunders, Guthrie, Blanton, et al. He hasturned a major corner since his AZ days, but if we can't "debate" stats, advanced stats, personal knowledge, researched knowledge, etc..then...well..

Hey Brock, wait up!! I'm coming!

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

It has nothing to do with his AL vs NL ERA. It has everything to do with using a career ERA of a guy who is 28 and has pitched much better in the past three seasons and your assumption that an average pitcher is paid the average MLB wage. One is intentionally ignoring recent performance to cherry-pick stats and the other is a logical fallacy based on bad math.

And I never used WAR to prove anything. I used it to point out the absurdity of claiming and "average" pitcher is worth $6m a year when WORSE and OLDER pitchers are earning DOUBLE that amount.

You just pointed to the league difference when he has an opposite split of what's expected. I never said the average pitcher wage was the same as the average position player wage. You use WAR in nearly every thread when evaluating a player and even said he was worth 3-4 wins. ERA is not the end all stat and neither is WAR. Jackson has been around the league a while now and he's not getting any better. His last 3 years he's posted a 4.10 ERA which is better than 4.40, but for me the changes aren't huge. Jackson has generally had a very high WHIP in addition to ERA and his SO/BB ratio has been good the past three years, but career wise unimpressive. The 23 year old Devil Ray season is a complete outlier, but other than that his career numbers have bounced around in the same inconsistent trend.

It's fun to have different views.and have a legit debate over a real possibility as an.acquisition the twins COULD make.

That being said...he has pitched better as his career has progressed, he's a solid yet not reliant strikeout pitcher, and he's still relatively young and has been durable. May I ask what you don't like about him? Is the disagreement here price tag alone? I would take him and something like 3/36 in a heartbeat. Anything under that I don't think is realistic, while I think you have a little room to overpay before the overpay gets uncomfortable.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

It's fun to have different views.and have a legit debate over a real possibility as an.acquisition the twins COULD make.

That being said...he has pitched better as his career has progressed, he's a solid yet not reliant strikeout pitcher, and he's still relatively young and has been durable. May I ask what you don't like about him? Is the disagreement here price tag alone? I would take him and something like 3/36 in a heartbeat. Anything under that I don't think is realistic, while I think you have a little room to overpay before the overpay gets uncomfortable.

It's definitely the price tag that bothers me. I don't see him as an elite pitcher that's worthy of what he'll be paid. The length of contract bothers me too. He's a 4 ERA guy and allows a lot batters to get on base. I just think there are/were other options that were slightly worse, but dramatically cheaper.