Thread: Article: Correia Signing is a Sad Thing

Originally Posted by chagen

we get kevin correia and i hear the tigers were trying to get james shields doesn't seem right does it? They have quality starting pitching and are trying to acquire more. We pick up kevin correia and we wonder why we haven't won anything in over 20 years.

bingo.....spot on

Originally Posted by SydneyTwinsFan

Some over reaction to this signing. Personally I'm not that bothered by it:

2yrs/$10m isn't a budget killing contract. There is still room to add significant payroll
The Twins had OVER 100 STARTS last year from pitchers with an ERA > 5.00, so rolling out those same guys (Blackburn, Pavano, Liriano, Walters etc) isn't an option. Correia's 4.21 ERA from last year will likely rise a bit moving from NL>AL but there's at least some prospect he can keep the team in games rather than being out of it inside 2 innings.
To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat.

Look, am I sickened by the low K rate and lack of upside in the signing? For sure. Would I prefer to see Marcum at 3/35 or Jackson at 4/50? Absolutely. Do I think Correia is going to anchor the rotation over the next two years? Of course not.

But in the world in which TR is forced to operate (an institutionalised reluctance for long term FA signings, the 2013 Twins being a spectacularly unattractive FA destination), adding a guy to provide some back of the rotation innings that will keep the team in games for $5m per year hardly warrants a mob of posters with burning torches and pitchforks.

Marquis "kept the team in games" last year, too, amiright?

Originally Posted by SydneyTwinsFan

Some over reaction to this signing. Personally I'm not that bothered by it:

2yrs/$10m isn't a budget killing contract. There is still room to add significant payroll
The Twins had OVER 100 STARTS last year from pitchers with an ERA > 5.00, so rolling out those same guys (Blackburn, Pavano, Liriano, Walters etc) isn't an option. Correia's 4.21 ERA from last year will likely rise a bit moving from NL>AL but there's at least some prospect he can keep the team in games rather than being out of it inside 2 innings.
To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat.

Look, am I sickened by the low K rate and lack of upside in the signing? For sure. Would I prefer to see Marcum at 3/35 or Jackson at 4/50? Absolutely. Do I think Correia is going to anchor the rotation over the next two years? Of course not.

But in the world in which TR is forced to operate (an institutionalised reluctance for long term FA signings, the 2013 Twins being a spectacularly unattractive FA destination), adding a guy to provide some back of the rotation innings that will keep the team in games for $5m per year hardly warrants a mob of posters with burning torches and pitchforks.

It's not about killing the budget, the Twins have money to spend.

What bothers me is that the Twins already have guys who can give them what Correia can. I'm not a big believer in the minor leaguers the Twins trotted out last year, but I'd rather give them the spot at league minimum than going outside the organization for redundant filler like Correia.

Tigers have a heck of a pitching staff, and they are going after Sanchez...Royals get Shields and Wade Davis (who can be a starter...could be a good one...but TB made them a reliever cause they were pitching flush)...and we sign a guy like Correia to go along with other unimpressive starters.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Hope has this problem - if it's not grounded in some sense of reality - it's often wrong. You got on your high horse to call a realistic position wrong based on hope. You know what I had hope in? Baker at 5.5M finding the Scotty B. that was highly underrated by this fanbase. This schtick doesn't work, people did the same thing to you prior to 2011. The issue wasn't that you were a soulless pessimist - it's that you overlooked reality. I'm not going to hammer you with it, but the positions are essentially flipped Nick. In my eyes, you looked past your own better judgement out of blind optimism rather than real analysis.

It happens to all fans, but next time don't be so quick to bash pessimism simply because it isn't what we want to hear. I know I learned that prior to 2011 when you were absolutely right.

There were (and are) pitchers out there who would have a far more legitimate chance to bolster this rotation and would probably fall under the Twins' supposed budget constraints. It was not unrealistic to think that Ryan – given unprecedented payroll flexibility – might find a way to land one or two of those guys.

In the 2011 offseason many people were pulling the wool over their eyes when it came to moves like swapping Hardy for Nishioka and re-signing Pavano and Capps, blindly trusting in an organization that had enjoyed a decade of nearly uninterrupted success. This is quite different. I've made clear that I think this is a horrible signing. I'm just disappointed, and honestly expected better from TR given how much he has talked about his determination to bring in quality starting pitching.

Also, yes, Baker's contract is vastly preferable to Correia's. That doesn't make it a good investment. I don't know why you're acting like this signing is some sort of proof that it was.

"To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat."

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same number as Diamond.

Apparently most have reached the acceptance/resignation step today. Maybe its getting time to research the top amateurs in the next Rule 4 (amateur) draft so we can discuss who the Twins should select next summer, rather than beating this dead horse some more?

I think this is a terrible signing. The absolute best case scenario is that he is an average pitcher. More likely is that he is a new Jason Marquis. The Twins shouldn't spend $10 million for that. If you are aiming for mediocre, get some cheap AAAA cast-off guys.
There are pitchers who are riskier but who have a much better upside. The Twins should target them. That way, if they fail, cut bait. If they succeed (ala Diamond), re-sign them.

Is Ryan really this dumb?

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

It was not unrealistic to think that Ryan – given unprecedented payroll flexibility – might find a way to land one or two of those guys.

Landing one may still happen, the problem is after that one you want the best bang for your buck. 5M won't take you far unless you're willing to take on some serious risk. Baker, much like McCarthy and others, has those risks. They will appear to be "overpaid" but you're paying for the reward, not the risk.

I will note, that you cited the issue in 2011 as blind trust of the organization and then posted a blog article this year called "In Terry we trust" in the midst of your soap boxing about why anyone with the opposite opinion of you on the signings of Feldman and Baker was misguided and that this offseason they could fix an awful pitching staff in one swing. No offense, but I can't possibly find a better example of blind trust than that. It's not like this organization has a strong history of major offseason upgrades. That's blind trust Nick, it's not any different.

Also, yes, Baker's contract is vastly preferable to Correia's. That doesn't make it a good investment. I don't know why you're acting like this signing is some sort of proof that it was.

It's proof that 5M can be spent in much, much worse ways. Again I'll venture the same bet I did earlier - 5M is going to be spent this offseason by many teams in many worse ways than a flyer on Scott Baker. To have been so down on that move at the time was blind to the potential of this kind of move. Ultimately we won't know how good any of these investments are until the end of this season. But contrary to your arguments, it was perfectly reasonable to think that 5.5M to Baker was not a reach. The offseason is absolutely bearing that out.

I guess I'm not convinced that the Twins already have what Correia brings, or that he doesn't fill a need. Time will prove me wrong maybe.

At this point, Diamond and Worley are the only guys pencilled in the rotation. What's left?
Hendricks - as a fellow Aussie I hope he makes it, and I'm not going to write him off given his age and relative minor league success, but in terms of WAR, ERA, WHIP he was demonstrably worse than Correia last year
DeVries - looks like the most likely guy to provide some serviceable innings
Deduno - BB rate is an implosion waiting to happen and I'll take Correia's proven mediocrity
Blackburn - you're kidding, right?
Gibson - going to be on an innings count, so bank on him of 1/2 to 2/3 of a season.

The fact is, outside of Diamond the Twins weren't able to get 20 starts out of anyone last year. Nick Blackburn (gulp) was forced to turn out 19 starts. There is value in what Correia brings, even if it's not exciting and doesn;t have much upside. Of course I would prefer them to sign Marcum or Jackson to provide genuine quality, and I hope by some miracle they do, but you can't force them to come here. And if you can't get those guys then you have to find whatever modest ways to improve the team you can. Replacing the 30 starts the team was forced to endure from Blackburn/Pavano with Correia makes the team incrementally better.

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yankees have signed free agent third baseman Kevin Youkilis to a one-year, $12 million contract.

Youkilis turned down a two-year, $18 million propsal from the Indians in order to return to the American League East. It should be a nice fit for him in New York, where he'll start at third base until Alex Rodriguez returns from mid-January hip surgery. "Youk" batted .235/.336/.409 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI in 122 games this past season between the Red Sox and White Sox.
Related: Yankees

Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitte

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same as Diamond

Should that depress me about the "ace" of the rotation or encourage me about Correia?
I'm not trying to defend the Correia signing as a great one, far from it. Just suggesting it's not as bad as is being made out here.

It seems to me that there were a number of people who had high hopes that the Twins would sign 2 pitchers in FA who were better than average (or at least 1 better than average and 1 average) -- and some were actually hoping for 3.

I never had those expectations so this is less disappointing to me than it may be to some others. I've been pleased with the trades Ryan made because I've wanted them to start rebuilding since October 2010 BUT my eye continues to be on the bottom line.

No one should be blithely accepting of a payroll at $75-$80 million unless the Twins make it VERY clear that they are no longer adhering to the 50% policy AND are, in fact, harboring some of unspent portion of their savings for use down the road (and, if that is the case, then they had darn well better be spending significantly more than 50% when it comes to 2014, 2015 and later [and yes, I realize that is a Catch-22 in that 50% may be less dollars if attendance continues to decline although the extra $25m in split TV revenues will help]).

I realize that I'm like a broken record on this point but IF the Twins continue to maintain that they are adhering to the 50+% rule THEN, if they won't (or can't) put it into some decent starting pitching, they darn well need to be seeking out upgrades & values at some of their positions that might later be flipped for more prospects.

Twins signed RHP Scott Elarton to a minor league contract.

Elarton hasn't appeared in the majors since 2008 and posted a 5.41 ERA in 26 starts at Triple-A for the Phillies in 2012. He's merely organizational depth.

Originally Posted by top gun

fox sports' ken rosenthal reports that the yankees have signed free agent third baseman kevin youkilis to a one-year, $12 million contract.

Youkilis turned down a two-year, $18 million propsal from the indians in order to return to the american league east. It should be a nice fit for him in new york, where he'll start at third base until alex rodriguez returns from mid-january hip surgery. "youk" batted .235/.336/.409 with 19 home runs and 60 rbi in 122 games this past season between the red sox and white sox.
related: yankees

source: ken rosenthal on twitte

wtf?

Originally Posted by SydneyTwinsFan

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same as Diamond

Should that depress me about the "ace" of the rotation or encourage me about Correia?
I'm not trying to defend the Correia signing as a great one, far from it. Just suggesting it's not as bad as is being made out here.

It''s absolutely as bad as it's being made out to be.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

Marquis "kept the team in games" last year, too, amiright?

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

"To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat."

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same number as Diamond.

yeah... The Ol' QS... A pretty good indicator of keeping your team in the game in my opinion. Good call...

QS%

Correia .571

Cherry picking this stat makes him look fairly affective. Marcum is also at .57... So is Worley.

Greinke is at .59... That means two out five starts were not quality. Greinke 20 quality starts out of 34. 14 Starts that he couldnt get thru 6 innings of work without giving up 3 runs or less... This is the guy that everyone wants at 25 million per? Yet Correia... Gave his team a chance to win at an equal percentage and he is crucified.

Pitchers with a lower QS% in 2012

Hellickson...Wainwright... T.Hudson... Minor... Free Agent Edwin Jackson... Masterson... Latos... Lester... Haren... Buchholz... Matt Moore... Tommy Hanson... Lincecum...

Based on 100 IP minimum... Correia is tied for 60th... 30 teams in MLB...

The more I look into this... I could end up... Actually liking this signing.

Chief... Marquis had two quality starts in Minnesota,.. So yeah... I guess Marquis had a couple.

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This is the last I am going to post about this signing. and we better get at least one decent pitcher.

Well, ah ... Thanks Nick that certainaly depressed me. Ryan Dempster Guy.