Thread: Article: Twins To Sign RHP Kevin Correia

No, his numbers don't scream any such thing. Even a cursory look at his ERA compared to the NL average would tell you as much.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Jeez Brock... Marquis strikes out more hitters than Correia does. Surely you can see that.

To everyone... These Marquis and Blackburn comparisons are a little over the top.

Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.

Comparing with Marquis... I find it hard to compare Marquis in Minnesota with Marquis in San Diego.

This mob will continue to mob... It's how it works... I get that and reading the responses has been fun.

The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground.

With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher.

I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis.

And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake.

I expect Correia to be a complete and utter disaster. Consider this: 2012 was his best season in the last 3 years. He posted an ERA+ of88. I don't see an ERA+ of 88 as good. He doesn't strike anybody out, instead relying on defense to do the job behind him. That's not gonna work out well.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Gotta hand it to you Riverbrian...you really give it your all to back Ryan's moves. Way to stick to your guns

Thank You Puck... Terry Ryan once ran directly at a Mountain Lion that had me cornered. I've had his back ever since.

Seriously... This ain't so much defense of TR... It's more like balance... Correia is being over cooked here. I've spent a lot of time on this site and I appreciate all the posters but I've detected a slight glimpse of embellishment and emotion from time to time. Or maybe that's just me.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Is Kevin Correia actually Jason Marquis? I'm looking through their stat lines and they're basically the exact same guy.

What on earth is Ryan thinking?

Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.

Good for Correia that he wasn't capable of the other worldly and historically colossal decrepitude that Nick Blackburn is. For a metaphorical visual of that comparison, a 4 looks a lot sexier when standing next to a 1....and yet it's still a 4.

Yeah... That's kinda my point... But we have posters here who are calling this signing Blackburn esque. I was pointing out that... that is embellishment at a fairly large degree.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Jeez Brock... Marquis strikes out more hitters than Correia does. Surely you can see that.

To everyone... These Marquis and Blackburn comparisons are a little over the top.

Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.

Comparing with Marquis... I find it hard to compare Marquis in Minnesota with Marquis in San Diego.

This mob will continue to mob... It's how it works... I get that and reading the responses has been fun.

The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground.

With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher.

I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis.

And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake.

I expect Correia to be a complete and utter disaster. Consider this: 2012 was his best season in the last 3 years. He posted an ERA+ of88. I don't see an ERA+ of 88 as good. He doesn't strike anybody out, instead relying on defense to do the job behind him. That's not gonna work out well.

I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.

So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal?

Originally Posted by snepp

No, his numbers don't scream any such thing. Even a cursory look at his ERA compared to the NL average would tell you as much.

Than Why all the screaming?

'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?

Originally Posted by snepp

So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal?

Snepp... Snepp... It was directed at those who are comparing him to Blackburm.... That's embellishment!!!

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Jeez Brock... Marquis strikes out more hitters than Correia does. Surely you can see that.

To everyone... These Marquis and Blackburn comparisons are a little over the top.

Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego.

Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference.

Comparing with Marquis... I find it hard to compare Marquis in Minnesota with Marquis in San Diego.

This mob will continue to mob... It's how it works... I get that and reading the responses has been fun.

The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground.

With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher.

I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis.

And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake.

I expect Correia to be a complete and utter disaster. Consider this: 2012 was his best season in the last 3 years. He posted an ERA+ of88. I don't see an ERA+ of 88 as good. He doesn't strike anybody out, instead relying on defense to do the job behind him. That's not gonna work out well.

I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.

He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?

To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Originally Posted by ThePuck

'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?

To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke.

Seems to me most would be happy if we managed to get Marcum and/or Jackson...

[QUOTE=ThePuck;70420]

Originally Posted by Riverbrian;70414

I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.[/QUOTE

He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.

Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Originally Posted by ThePuck

'So he's better than Blackburn........that makes it any less putrid of a deal? '

Does it matter that even Blackburn was better than Correia in 4 of the last 5 seasons?

To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke.

Seems to me most would be happy if we managed to get Marcum and/or Jackson...

Me included... However... Marcum and Jackson were not overwhelmingly better stat wise in 2012.

[QUOTE=Riverbrian;70423]

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by Riverbrian;70414

I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.[/QUOTE

He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.

Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013.

yeah, James is my boy...but that's wacky. He's not going to come to the AL, face DHs instead of pitchers, not strike anyone out, count on OUR defense, and get an ERA that low...and lower than last year, his lowest in 3 years

A miracle.

Marcum hasn't had an ERA over 3.70 in 4 years...two of those years in the AL East. He also Ks some people.. ERA+ over 110 last 4 years. Jackson, slightly less impressive...both way better than Correia.

We aren't asking much...

[QUOTE=ThePuck;70426]

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Originally Posted by Riverbrian;70414

I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.[/QUOTE

He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00.

Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013.

yeah, James is my boy...but that's wacky. He's not going to come to the AL, face DHs instead of pitchers, not strike anyone out, count on OUR defense, and get an ERA that low.

A miracle.

I'm a huge Bill James Fan... When he started doing his thing... He had the balls to keep doing it in the face of everyone telling him it was garbage... It didn't stop him and look what happened... He changed baseball.

However... Bill still hasn't figured out how to project with absolute certainly so we can take it with a grain of salt.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Marcum hasn't had an ERA over 3.70 in 4 years...two of those years in the AL East. He also Ks some people.. ERA+ over 110 last 4 years. Jackson, slightly less impressive...both way better than Correia.

We aren't asking much...

No doubt on Marcum... And Jackson... I'd like them both and I'd settle for one and I don't care what it costs. I think our difference in opinion is going to hinge on the "way better" part.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I'm a huge Bill James Fan... When he started doing his thing... He had the balls to keep doing it in the face of everyone telling him it was garbage... It didn't stop him and look what happened... He changed baseball.

However... Bill still hasn't figured out how to project with absolute certainly so we can take it with a grain of salt.

Yeah, unfortunately, he really hasn't done a good job over the years at projecting...but, like you, I'm still a fan

Sabathia had an ERA+ of 124 this year. Gavin Floyd had an ERA+ of 101. 23 point difference. Were they close?

23 point difference between Marcum and Correia in ERA+ last year...33 in 2011...47 in 2010.