Thread: Kevin Correia?

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-talk/373...-pitchers.html
Just saying I predicted this signin on Oct 14th......not that I have any info but I know how cheap Terry Ryan is
Very disappointing.......if Gardy is fired this season for another 95 loss season, TR should be right behind

It's 12/11 and you've declared the offseason over? Keep up the negativity.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I'm still not sure how much good that Baker deal does the Twins though, because I think he might take a minute to get back to productivity.

This context shows what? You gave just as much billing to plugging that Baker was payed "excessively" (is this somehow different than overpaying?) as you did the option year. How that paragraph proves you didn't argue Baker was overpaid is baffling.

I'll repeat it: The Twins just guaranteed Kevin Correia as much money as the Cubs did for Feldman and Baker combined. After much laughing at the Cubs early on. I know who should be laughing now.

Baker is coming off injury, and part of the incentive of signing him was that he would regain more value in future years. Five and half million is fine if there's some incentive to paying him that much; I thought it was excessive, given his injury and no option year (that's not crazy, even if you think otherwise). Feldman is a swing man with a worse track record than Correia. Again, the only silver lining is if Correia pitches himself into tradeability.

Both deals are bucket loads of Meh, and trying characterize my opinion otherwise misrepresents it. You're trying to drive a wedge when our opinions probably aren't very far apart.

That said, I'd rather pay that 5.5 million more over two years to McCarthy, though there might be legitimate health concerns.

Originally Posted by J-Dog Dungan

Originally Posted by joeboo_22

2 years 10 million. He is Nick Blackburn. I had the guy on my fantasy team the year he had a sub 4 era in San Diego. He was a pitcher built for San Diego where the ball doesn't fly. I'm not a big fan of this move either

With the heat down in San Diego, the ball travels better than it does back here. Not a great move by the Twins, but one they clearly needed to make.

uhhmmm why? dont we already pay a waste of a pitcher 5 million named blackburn?
if we are building for the future, why sign a never was,a dinasour with no trade value?
wouldnt we be farther ahead to see if devries,deuno,walters vasquez hernandez hermsen have any future or value?

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-talk/373...-pitchers.html
Just saying I predicted this signin on Oct 14th......not that I have any info but I know how cheap Terry Ryan is
Very disappointing.......if Gardy is fired this season for another 95 loss season, TR should be right behind

It's 12/11 and you've declared the offseason over? Keep up the negativity.

Right. Signing Corriea makes little different in terms of future competitiveness or our actually capacity to sign star pitching.

Originally Posted by Brandon

Why not just save the money or sign a different crappy pitcher to a 1 year deal so atleast its a 1 year deal.

Poll would you rather have DeVries or Correia in the rotation?

i would rather have butera...ok really deuno,devries,walters hermsen,vasquez,hernandez...at least find out if these guys are prospects or suspects, but correia has no value, a career 4.5 era add in the n.l-a.l conversion and your looking at an era between 4.75-5-00

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by JP3700

I don't love the signing, but I don't hate it either. Low risk, low reward. With Diamond and Correia in the rotation our infield defense better be sharp.

Hopefully this means TR is loading up $12-15 million per for a Sanchez, Marcum or Jackson. I'm not holding my breath though.

Time for a cleansing breath.

A few of the Twins apologists are all pink and puffy-cheeked and are undoubtedly still holding out their predictably unnatural hope, but I think Worley and Correia are it. Maybe there's a Joel Zumaya clone available?

On the bright side, both will be good candidates for eminent flippability back to the NL come July, so that Hermsen, Wimmers and the 2012 Cast from the "Fame" remake can close out the season in the starting rotation with Diamond (Gibson will likely be shut down or severely limited by the end of August).

kasmir

Originally Posted by USAFChief

This should be every bit as successful as last winter's pitching additions. Nicely done TR. Now let's strike while the iron is hot and get Livan signed before the other GMs find out he's still available!

or offer capps another pay cut and see if he returns?

God damnit I miss BYTO!!!!

Basically I agree with 110% of what Kab has said in this thread, the fake outrage is hilarious though, keep it up.

Also:

Correia 2/10 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Dempters 3/40

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Also:

Correia 2/10 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Dempters 3/40

I disagree, but that is fine. Correia isn't even going to be in the rotation in 2014. If he is, the Twins have much larger problems with Gibson, Meyer, May, and Hendriks. Dempster is at least a capable 2-3 and not a 5-6.

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

I really need to sink my money into a turd polish manufacturer before JR makes any more signings.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

Yep, which is why I'd have rather overpaid for Dempster, Haren, Blanton, ect. You would think that after last years Marquis disaster they'd have shyed away from low K, pitch to contact guys with modest success in the NL. I find it hard to imagine there were other teams beating down Correia's door with a 2 year contract at this point.

We can always sell him to Japan!

It serves Pohlad right, who would want to come here and play for that cheap bastard. The players and agents know!

Watching fans rend their garments and tear at their hair over a free agent signing it's easy to remember that this is a children's game. What else could possibly turn a bunch of adults into tantrum throwers? I get it, baseball makes people impassioned. It also makes people act rash.

Kevin Correia has not been a great pitcher, nobody will argue that. On the other hand, he has not since 2004 had RAR numbers comparable to what Blackburn, Dedudo, Walters and Marquis gave us last year. In fact, the numbers that got him tossed out of the Pirates rotation would have slotted him as the Twins #2. I know this is no ringing endorsement. It's not meant to be. It's simply the reality that our Twins are facing right now. They needed 3 whole big league pitchers to fill out the rotation for 2013, just to hope to compete. If Correia's acquisition does nothing more than prevent the continued misuse of Brian Duensing as a starter, it's a win. I'm not crackin' on Duens. He's one of my favorite players. Just that he's a below average starter, but a really good reliever.

Heck, If we got an entire pitching staff staff of Corrieas career average (as a starter) production, the team would allow 745 earned runs. Not sexy, but 17 runs better than last year. Somewhere between 1 and 2 wins. Let's say we can expect the bully to produce the same rate as last year (3.77 ERA, .42 r/i).

We slot in a whole staff of Correia career average (starts) pitchers. That gives them an avg start of 5 2/3 vs 5 1/3. 53 1/3 fewer innings to the bully first of all. That's a whole reliever worth of appearances (which would theoretically leave the pen more effective -- but we're not going to deal in that intangible right now). It reduces the team ERA to 4.29. Extrapolate that to the 1438.2 IP for 2k11 and the team surrenders 691 earned runs. That's still 100 behind Detroit, sure. But it's 71 better than last year. That's 7 Wins better, more or less. It's late and I can't sleep, so might be I've totally borked the math. I hope not, since that'd be too bad.

Let's just slot 2k12 Correia into an avg non-Diamond 2k12 starter (5.86 ERA! More than a run every other inning!) from last year, and give him his 160.67 innings. That reduces the team's starting pitching run allowance from 528 earned runs to 498. That's 30 runs. 3 'wins'. That places Correia's value to the 2k12 Twins at $15 Mil. They're paying him a third of that per season. Regression risk is built in to the contract.

While he's not the most exciting player on the block, he is a valuable pick up to the Twins. Considering they've also replaced another 5.86 ERA (The aggregate non-Diamond) starter with Worley (who produced at roughly the same rate last year, with injury) at the minimum, they've greatly improved the rotation. If we slap Worley's injured season into the matrix, we get at total of 474 starter runs. Meaning injured Worley is worth 2.4 'wins' to the 2k12 Twins as well. Obviously this only gets the team to 73 wins, but it's only cost 10.8 Mil of payroll over the next two seasons, with regression protection built in.

If we want to protect against the whole AL/NL thing, we add 23 Runs to that, negating the gain of Injured Worley. This doesn't include the likelihood that Healthy Worley will out produce Injured Worley.

Blah blah. Just adding the exact production that Correia gave the Pirates last year and even accounting for the AL/NL conversion: he would have been worth 17 Runs at a minimum to the Twins last year. Meaning his 5 Mil is actually less than his value would have been.

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

http://twinsdaily.com/twins-talk/373...-pitchers.html
Just saying I predicted this signin on Oct 14th......not that I have any info but I know how cheap Terry Ryan is
Very disappointing.......if Gardy is fired this season for another 95 loss season, TR should be right behind

I remember. I know you and I were prime targets for the slings and arrows from the apologists.

It looks like my prediction of $85M might have been a bit of an overshoot. One could say that one apparent intent from these maneuvers at payroll paring is that TR is setting Gardy up for his early dismissal papers.

Between the two of you can you ever remember a major free agent ever signing with a 180 loss team in a mid to small market? It isn't always about money. Name call those that think differently than you do to try to diminish a point of view but no major free aeant is going to a losing team at anything other than a totally outrageous contract. 6/90 for Sanchez is what the agent wanted. Even if the Twins offered, he wouldn't take it.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

Aren't you the same guy who thought the Twins could get James Shields for Dernard Span and BJ Hermsen?

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I thought it was excessive, given his injury and no option year

You can keep twisting your own words around to make it sound better, but you called 5.5M excessive. You then came on this thread and said 2 years and 10M (guaranteed, not an option year! Which HURTS trade value, not helps it!) is "not that bad". Those opinions together are stupid. There is no twisting this into "not that bad" in any world, but certainly not when you called a 1 year 5.5M deal "excessive". All the hand wringing and laughing about that looks mighty stupid now.

Just to recap a third time for you, they just paid a player who is bad at baseball as much money as the Cubs did for one meh guy and one guy who, if healthy, is pretty darn good. If you asked anyone before the offseason which of those two scenarios you would rather be in (bad player vs. two players) they'd have said the two players with meh ability and upside/health concerns 100 out of 100 times. It's a no brainer.

You, Nick, and many others shouted across this forum what silly moves those were by the Cubs. They look pretty damn sharp to me as we sit and look at a 10M dollar turd today.

Originally Posted by twinsfaninsaudi

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Whatever budget Terry Ryan is working with, he just committed $5 million of it toward a bad player for the next two years. I don't see any positive way to frame this.

Aren't you the same guy who thought the Twins could get James Shields for Dernard Span and BJ Hermsen?

That should have been the going rate. One can't predict that another team will step in make a really stupid offer.