12-05-2012, 11:12 AM #1
Twins Shopping Morneau To Orioles, Others
MASN is reporting the Twins have approached the Orioles about trading them Justin Morneau.
I think there already some threads talking specifcally about a trade with the Orioles, but this makes me wonder a couple of things...
1. What would you be willing to give up Morneau for? Both if the Twins ate some salary or if they ate none of it...
2. Is this yet another indication that Ryan is willing to tread water in 2013 and look towards the future?
12-05-2012, 11:24 AM #2
John i definitely think the Twins are looking beyond 2013. I think TR is realistic in the Twins ability to compete this year. Im having trouble wrapping my head around who the Twins could receive for Justin Morneau. Matusz? Tillman? Maybe we could get a prospect with better upside if we eat a couple million of Morneaus contract.
12-05-2012, 11:25 AM #3
Depends if you view Morneau as the former MVP OR as the guy from last yr??
I would personally love to deal him and get Parmellee to 1B. This opens up RF for Arcia/Hicks/Benson etc for whenever they are ready.
Would be stunned if Balt would trade any of top 2 pitching prospects for anyone......not sure of who they have after that.....Chris Tillman would excite me out of their starters
12-05-2012, 11:29 AM #4
With trading Span, and now shopping both Revere and Morneau I think it means Ryan thinks the Twins have some in house replacements who can take over very soon (at about 28x less money wise then Morneau in this case)
If the Twins trade Morneau, they suddenly have the payroll flexibility to sign two top tier free agent pitchers.
Color me intrigued.
12-05-2012, 11:30 AM #5
12-05-2012, 11:31 AM #6
I love Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton. Young power pitchers. Peripherals look a lot better than their results. I would take a shot at one, or both of them.
12-05-2012, 11:33 AM #7
Morneau just isn't that valuable, because of his salary, injury problems recently, and mediocre 2012 season. He is a good fit for Baltimore if the Twins eat a lot of salary, but who really thinks the Twins would do that?
Even then, the return certainly wouldn't be Tillman or someone like that. Maybe Arrieta, but even then the Twins might need to kick in a C+ prospect.
12-05-2012, 11:36 AM #8
12-05-2012, 11:36 AM #9
Am not impressed by the major league ready arms Baltimore has. Maybe a couple more A pitchers, not a bad move and maybe more to follow. Pitching wins, look at the final 4 teams last year. Only St. Louis did not have above average pitching in the playoffs. In the American league only the Yankees pitching was below average and they paid a hugh price for it.
12-05-2012, 11:38 AM #10
We have no SP, soon we will have no bats left either. No wonder Gardy is crying.
12-05-2012, 11:44 AM #11
I think almost the entire Orioles rotation would constitute improvements over what the Twins have right now, so I wouldn't turn my back on any deal. Baltimore isn't going to give up either of their top pitching prospects, so you really would be looking at Tillman, Arrieta, Britton, and even Hammel (who, like Morneau, would be a FA in a year). What else either side puts in to the deal in terms of supplemental players or money would be the X factor that makes any potential deal good or bad.
I wouldn't see this as a sign of treading water in 2013 unless it did happen to be Hammel coming back as a primary piece. It would tell me the Twins really do see Parmelee as a legitimate Big League 1B. I'm not sure I'm ready to agree with that, but that's how I would interpret any trade of Morneau.
12-05-2012, 12:07 PM #12
Just because somebody says the Twins are shopping Morneau does not make it so. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if his name might of come up in talks between the 2 teams. I think the Twins would have to be kind of blown away to deal Morneau at this time. It would clearly signal a rebuilding point of view, which I not sure the Twins are really at. Also, since there is no one clearly ready to replace his bat, it would likely force the Twins to go after a free agent to replace the bat, at least until some prospects are ready. That would likely mitigate the value of the return in the trade, to some degree.
My thought would be that the Twins would have to get a very high end pitching prospect to actually trade Morneau at this time. That doesn't seem very likely.
12-05-2012, 12:22 PM #13
I don't know much about the Baltimore organization. However, let's look at it this way:
1. When discussing a Span trade (before it happened), I remember Twins Centric looked at a lot of good Atlanta pitchers. If I remember right (and I could be wrong), many of them were either major league ready or AAA/AA. We ended up training Span for a pitcher that just got into high A (which is a move I like ... I honestly think it was the best we could do for Span).
2. Based on my statement above, it would appear whenever trade rumors are discussed, fans always think we could get more than we are going to really get. Based on that, even discussing higher pitching prospects for Morneau is out of question.
3. What's Morneau worth based on the above two points? IMO, probably a salary dump and maybe a prospect a tad bit better than the two we got for Liriano.
Is that terrible? Of course. We want to think we'd get more, but we won't. Maybe even asking for a prospect better than what we got for Liriano is too much.
The Twins have never eaten salary from what I can remember. Why would they start now? They'll dump Morneau for salary savings this year (unless they keep him for the fans) and the Orioles will need to give us something back to make the trade worth it.
Would it be easy to say the Twins will take the applied savings and use it for pitching? Maybe some of it, but I have a feeling not all of it will be used. We know the Twins and how they operate.
Hate to be the party crasher, but just being honest based on how I've observed the Twins operate over the years.
12-05-2012, 12:24 PM #14
Take the two extremes: Twins pay for none of Morneau's salary, Twins pay for all of it. In the first case, I'm not sure any team would offer a prospect of any importance, but it is salary relief for the Twins that allows Ryan some flexibility in signing pitching. In the second case, maybe a team like the Orioles offers their third best SP prospect, but it harms the Twins 2013 in both talent *and* budget flexibility. I'm not hugely in favor of some middle ground, giving modest salary relief plus a mediocre prospect.
As for the dichotomy of looking to the future versus improving for 2013, I don't buy it. You can (and must) do both. If you have a solid plan, such as keying toward 2015, then deals made now may be viewed in either that light or covering the interim with good players. As I've said elsewhere, two-year contracts for good but older players will make a ton of sense, while three or four-year contracts won't. Willingham is perfect in this light, and if the return for him isn't a real stud, it's questionable to use him as a trade chip. Longer-term FA contracts for good younger players cover both parts of the plan. Filling out the roster with one-year contracts covers the rest. And trading one of the few remaining high-dollar contracts, i.e. Morneau, should be done only to either acquire significant talent or to free 2013 cash that will be put to better use. No half-measures, please.
12-05-2012, 12:30 PM #15
If the Twins trade Morneau and the other team is willing to take on his whole $14 million salary, I would imagine that would constitute $14 million of "revenue" to Jim Pohlad. Therefore, Terry Ryan would, at most, be allowed to spend 52% of it on payroll, right? #sarcasm