Revere on the trading block?

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

Guys with Revere's speed don't just go year after year with BABIPs in the low .300s. Its not a statistical certainty, but for my money I'll take the over on Revere popping out at least two years in the next 5 where his BABIP is north of .340.

And if your retort is based on his ground ball tendencies, my answer is that you have to weigh those against his IFFB tendencies, which is almost zero.

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Even if he converts ground balls into hits next year at the same rate as the 2012 league leader in infield hit rate, Norichika Aoki (13.5%), Revere will only pick up 8 extra hits, which would be an improvement of about 10 points of batting average. Meanwhile, his line drive rate fell to 18.6%, which puts him just outside the 20 lowest rates of the 142 qualifying hitters in 2012. His speed-related hitting is just about maxed out, so if he's going to see a sustainable improvement in obp, it will have to come mostly from more walks or more line drives.

I don't se ANY way Revere fetches a potential #2 or 3 starter...NONE! so why not hang onto him for another yr. He hit .300 last yr and is a stud defensively, so give him a full season and see if he can continue to improve. You need coverage in that OF with Hammer and possibly Parm.

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Originally Posted by Dilligaf69

I don't se ANY way Revere fetches a potential #2 or 3 starter...NONE! so why not hang onto him for another yr. He hit .300 last yr and is a stud defensively, so give him a full season and see if he can continue to improve. You need coverage in that OF with Hammer and possibly Parm.

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i dont think he will either. Maybe he can fetch a solid #4, but thats not what we need, But if we trade Morneau then we dont have to worry about Parmelee roaming RF. Who knows if the Twins are all that interested in trading Revere, especially with that team friendly contract of his.

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Originally Posted by Oxtung

Sure....of course if his May/June/July 2012 splits are what he puts up in 2013 then his numbers look like : .320/.350/.380 with an OPS in the mid .700's. You're picking one half of the season and claiming that is the mostly likely outcome without solid explanation of why that will be the case. You seem to be saying, "my gut says"....

The more likely outcome is that you see a player that is similar to his minor league and major league norms. IE what we saw this year. A ~.300/.330/.340 player with great speed and is dangerous on the base paths. If that is indeed the production in 2013 then his trade value next year will be roughly the same as it is this year.

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His three month sample you are citing as "good Revere" is bookended by 750 PAs of an OPS barely north of 600. And 250 of those were his most recent chunk of PAs. It's not just a "gut feeling", it's a trend he has exhibited over the past two seasons, where the "good Revere" sample seems to be the outlier.

And one thing that can translate into a low BABIP is a slight-framed guy who doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, i.e. a guy who weighs 170 lbs. If he isn't driving the ball (and I'd consider a low LD% a decent indicator of such) then all the speed in the world won't help if you're slapping around dribblers, because most of those won't make it through an infield.

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Originally Posted by Dilligaf69

I don't se ANY way Revere fetches a potential #2 or 3 starter...NONE! so why not hang onto him for another yr. He hit .300 last yr and is a stud defensively, so give him a full season and see if he can continue to improve. You need coverage in that OF with Hammer and possibly Parm.

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Need coverage for what? It seems like they are not going to sign legit pitchers, why do they need coverage? They need prospects, because they appear to be not interested in signing free agents that are good players.....still hoping that isn't the case, and these rumors are wrong....still hoping.

With some of the contracts being handed out Willingham needs to be shopped around. Revere though I think can get a decent prospect in return. but will have to be lower in the system. He won't get anything close to what Span got, but at the same time its a numbers game, where you have depth at that position, sell what you have for what you can get and let them sink or swim out there.

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Originally Posted by joeboo_22

With some of the contracts being handed out Willingham needs to be shopped around. Revere though I think can get a decent prospect in return. but will have to be lower in the system. He won't get anything close to what Span got, but at the same time its a numbers game, where you have depth at that position, sell what you have for what you can get and let them sink or swim out there.

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I think your right, Willinghams contract is a fricken steal. Im sure the Twins are throwing his name out there and seeing what they can get in return for him.

or we could just buy the pitchers. but wait we can't pay market rate for employees. not even once in while.

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Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

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Originally Posted by Oxtung

Sure....of course if his May/June/July 2012 splits are what he puts up in 2013 then his numbers look like : .320/.350/.380 with an OPS in the mid .700's. You're picking one half of the season and claiming that is the mostly likely outcome without solid explanation of why that will be the case. You seem to be saying, "my gut says"....

The more likely outcome is that you see a player that is similar to his minor league and major league norms. IE what we saw this year. A ~.300/.330/.340 player with great speed and is dangerous on the base paths. If that is indeed the production in 2013 then his trade value next year will be roughly the same as it is this year.

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His three month sample you are citing as "good Revere" is bookended by 750 PAs of an OPS barely north of 600. And 250 of those were his most recent chunk of PAs. It's not just a "gut feeling", it's a trend he has exhibited over the past two seasons, where the "good Revere" sample seems to be the outlier.

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You're ignoring the fact that he had 1700+ plate appearances in the minors where he hit for a high average with little power. So when you look at his whole professional career the real outlier is his rookie season in 2011. Many prospects struggle their rookie year. Nothing unusual there.

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And one thing that can translate into a low BABIP is a slight-framed guy who doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, i.e. a guy who weighs 170 lbs. If he isn't driving the ball (and I'd consider a low LD% a decent indicator of such) then all the speed in the world won't help if you're slapping around dribblers, because most of those won't make it through an infield.

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His LD% in 2012 allowed him to hit ~.300/.330/.340. He weighed 170 lbs. Unless you're predicting he is going to play 2013 at <170 lbs. or you think he lost considerable muscle his weight shouldn't affect his LD%.

Look it's possible he'll tank in 2013. It's also possible he'll OPS .750. The more likely outcome is that he puts up numbers similar to 2012. That's what he did for 4 years in the minors and that's what he did last year. The only outlier here is his rookie season.

So again, if you think he's going to slump in 2013, why? What is going to change this offseason?

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Originally Posted by LaBombo

Even if he converts ground balls into hits next year at the same rate as the 2012 league leader in infield hit rate, Norichika Aoki (13.5%), Revere will only pick up 8 extra hits, which would be an improvement of about 10 points of batting average. Meanwhile, his line drive rate fell to 18.6%, which puts him just outside the 20 lowest rates of the 142 qualifying hitters in 2012. His speed-related hitting is just about maxed out, so if he's going to see a sustainable improvement in obp, it will have to come mostly from more walks or more line drives.

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Those are infield hit percentages, meaning balls fielded without error and no out recorded. BABIP on ground balls will be higher. Heck, Mauer's was .285 last year, although I don't know what Revere's was. But, that reminds me of another peanut stat - reaching base on error, where Revere had 8, Aoki had 13. Mauer had 4, Willingham had 5, by comparison. Just another marginal benefit of speed that doesn't even get factored into BAv or OBP, although they are obviously recorded as at-bats.

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Originally Posted by Oxtung

His LD% in 2012 allowed him to hit ~.300/.330/.340. He weighed 170 lbs. Unless you're predicting he is going to play 2013 at <170 lbs. or you think he lost considerable muscle his weight shouldn't affect his LD%.

Look it's possible he'll tank in 2013. It's also possible he'll OPS .750. The more likely outcome is that he puts up numbers similar to 2012. That's what he did for 4 years in the minors and that's what he did last year. The only outlier here is his rookie season.

So again, if you think he's going to slump in 2013, why? What is going to change this offseason?

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Revere has, in essence, 2 MLB seasons of PAs. In one and a half of them, he put up an OPS barely clearing 600. In the other half a season, he managed to hit at a 725 OPS clip. Which of these samples seems more indicative of the real player? Call me nuts, but I'm going to lean towards the 750 PAs instead of the other 300.

I'm not going to bother with the specifics of his downward trend in his minors career, given that he hasn't OPSed over 750 since low A ball in 2008. That is with him scraping out an average just above .300 on a yearly basis, so what exactly is going to send his production suddenly shooting upward now that he's at the highest level of competition? Is he suddenly going to hit .350? Grow some man muscles on his 170 lb frame that will make a defense play deeper than a typical softball team on a field with 300 foot fences? Suddenly learn to take a walk? Something has to happen if he's going to make a legit improvement other than crossing your fingers and hoping some more dribblers find their way through a gap.

Your argument has gone from:

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Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet.

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To:

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Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

[...]what exactly is going to send his production suddenly shooting upward now that he's at the highest level of competition? Something has to happen if he's going to make a legit improvement other than crossing your fingers and hoping some more dribblers find their way through a gap.

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Since my point this whole time has been it is likely he will put up offensive numbers similar to his 2012 season, not that he would be much improved, I think we're seeing eye to eye. If his numbers remain relatively consistent then his trade value going into 2014 should be similar to what it is going into 2013.

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Originally Posted by Oxtung

Since my point this whole time has been it is likely he will put up offensive numbers similar to his 2012 season, not that he would be much improved, I think we're seeing eye to eye. If his numbers remain relatively consistent then his trade value going into 2014 should be similar to what it is going into 2013.

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That initial point was in reference to the "obviously due to improve" argument someone made earlier in this discussion. He may end up putting up similar numbers, but there's a pretty good chance (75% of his MLB PAs to this point) that he ends up quite a bit closer to that 610 OPS line, and then we're hoping he brings a turd sandwich in return. In reality, his past season was about as good a season statistically as you can realistically expect from a no-power, no-plate-discipline speedster, and selling now would be maximizing his trade value.

Again, unless there's a sudden, inexplicable increase in his ability to walk or a 50 point jump in his BA, there's little reason to believe that his 2012 results can be improved upon, and plenty of reason (again, 75% of his MLB PAs) that argue he could do markedly worse.

We gotta trade Revere now... I've been convinced... I've been reading the posts and the consensus has convinced me.

Revere is obviously at a sell high point and should be moved because his OPS isn't high enough to be more than a 4th outfielder

And... because last year was a fluke he really can't sustain that low OPS...

if he can't sustain that low OPS his value is gonna turn to **** so we should move him now...

And fast guys are the only ones who get hurt.

Ok... Diving back into the pool I'm more comfortable with...

It is preposterous to say he will obviously improve... It is also preposterous to say he obviously won't. It is also preposterous to say he will obviously stay the same.

I won't make a definitive projection because its baseball but I have a pretty strong guess that his production will fluctuate. Like everybody else!!!

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I won't make a definitive projection because its baseball but I have a pretty strong guess that his production will fluctuate. Like everybody else!!!

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Absolutely. But the problem with Revere is that he'll probably fluctuate between a .650 and a .750 OPS. His absolute ceiling (unless he starts putting the ball in the air with more authority as he ages) isn't very high to begin with and his floor makes him a platoon or fourth outfielder.

I'm not against holding on to him for one more season (because Hicks isn't ready yet and Arcia could regress) but there's a significant risk in doing so. If there's a solid offer on the table now, the Twins should take it and patch together an OF for half a season while Hicks gets some AAA experience under his belt.

You can't teach speed.

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Originally Posted by Top Gun

You can't teach speed.

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It's also the most fickle trait in baseball. Rickey Henderson was one of the greatest players of all time because on top of his speed and baserunning acumen, he had amazing plate discipline and quite a bit of power. Tim Raines made it into the HoF with a similar skillset.

On its own, speed is a marginal skill. You can't use it if you don't get on base and it's the first skill to degrade.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I won't make a definitive projection because its baseball but I have a pretty strong guess that his production will fluctuate. Like everybody else!!!

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Absolutely. But the problem with Revere is that he'll probably fluctuate between a .650 and a .750 OPS. His absolute ceiling (unless he starts putting the ball in the air with more authority as he ages) isn't very high to begin with and his floor makes him a platoon or fourth outfielder.

I'm not against holding on to him for one more season (because Hicks isn't ready yet and Arcia could regress) but there's a significant risk in doing so. If there's a solid offer on the table now, the Twins should take it and patch together an OF for half a season while Hicks gets some AAA experience under his belt.

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Brock you have been one of the more reasonable anti(for lack of a better word) guys. I wont argue that fluctuation range of yours. Looks reasonable to me. I get what you are saying.

100 OPS points is nothing statistically is what I'm saying(and yes i know the formula) and it isn't just the fast guys. Try to project what you should sign Napoli for?

I'm not slamming Denard Span... I will miss Span terribly... but he ain't a power hitter either and his arm is also sub par. The differences are shades. Yet one is approved and the other is not. I refuse to let a couple of doubles and a couple of walks get in the way of a developing 24 year old who has not failed yet.

Metrics are a major part of my job and I have seen too many people chase their tails while thinking they had the tail the whole time.

Lots of that going on.

Twins gave away there #1 hitter, if they give away the #2 there won't be many runs to drive in. The defense is hurt already and the future is no where in site just as well donate the money to the fiscal cliff.

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Brock you have been one of the more reasonable anti(for lack of a better word) guys. I wont argue that fluctuation range of yours. Looks reasonable to me. I get what you are saying.

100 OPS points is nothing statistically is what I'm saying(and yes i know the formula) and it isn't just the fast guys. Try to project what you should sign Napoli for?

I'm not slamming Denard Span... I will miss Span terribly... but he ain't a power hitter either and his arm is also sub par. The differences are shades. Yet one is approved and the other is not. I refuse to let a couple of doubles and a couple of walks get in the way of a developing 24 year old who has not failed yet.

Metrics are a major part of my job and I have seen too many people chase their tails while thinking they had the tail the whole time.

Lots of that going on.

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But remember when Span was signed. He was coming off two years of .800 OPS and nearly a .400 OBP. He regressed, just as speed guys often do in time as the league adjusts. But even after Span regressed, he was still a valuable player. Can you really say that for Revere? That's the difference between the two players. Span regressed from a .320/.390/.410 guy into a .280/.350/.370 guy. That still has a lot of value in an up-the-middle position. Even as Span's BABIP normalized, his walk rate and power remained (mostly) steady and after a few years, was still considered an above average centerfielder.

If Revere's BABIP drops, he's screwed. He's instantly a fourth outfielder. Outside of mentioning that they play the same position, we should stop comparing the two players. Span is the superior player in almost every way.

As for Revere's future, there isn't a lot to project there. He's never taken a walk in his career. Learning to do so now is pretty far-fetched. He puts the ball on the ground far too often to be a power threat. He's still young and could develop a little more strength but it won't be significant and given his ground ball rate, could just mean that he starts hitting groundball outs to fielders a little faster than he did before (at the same time his speed is declining). There's just nothing in his skill set that projects to being a quality player over the longterm.