Orioles as Trading Partner?

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by jokin

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by jokin

Gausman in effect, becomes superfluous, for a team, like MWW says, can "taste it" in 2013.

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Here is the thing about the 2012 Orioles...they weren't that good, they were extremely lucky. Was it a good baseball story to follow? Hell yes. But at the end of the day they are due for a huge regression in the W/L column. Not only were they the luckiest team in baseball last year, but I would venture to say one of the most lucky teams in the last 25 years or so. You need to look no further then then their pythagorean record and their results in one run and extra inning games.

The Orioles would be very foolish to get all "win now mode" and sell away the future of the franchise (they have a good young core in the farm system. Finally. They won't dismantle that now)

At this point, if I had to make predictions on the season the Orioles will probably be favored to finish in last place in the division, and that is no exaggeration. The Yankees are the Yankees, the Rays continue to be a solid ball club, the Blue Jays just brought in almost a whole new team! and the Red Sox won't be down for long.

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You're analyzing the Orioles like you're 2000 miles away from them (which you almost are, if you're from MN). Duqette doesn't strike me as a guy with the inferiority complex that you seem to think he should richly embrace. Yes, they were "lucky" last year, but their fans expectations for 2013 are a lot higher based on their 2012 luck, so there should be a penchant around the franchise to make the necessary moves to build on last season's W-L success, foolish or not, taking the slings and arrows for regressing from last season by taking no chances seems like a worse outcome for the Orioles FO.

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Actually I am about 200 miles away from Baltimore, and made a few trips down to Camden last year and have a quite a few friends who are O's fans. From talking to them, they all realize that last year was a fun ride, but largely due to luck. Orioles fans are excited moving forward, but they have their eye on 2014 and 2015, when guys like Bundy, Machado and Gausman will be making a huge impact (and the Yankees will be extremely old/The Rays will be getting in trouble etc)

The O's aren't going to mortage their future for some misguided "win now" model in the best division in baseball.

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If the Orioles fall to last place, the FO will be viewed as misguided in their approach and jobs could very well be on the line. Davey Johnson aint getting any younger either. He'll be 70 next month and would probably rather strike while the iron is hot than wait to try for a title later. As you're from the neighborhood, you are aware that the Orioles have hit kind-of a long dry spell of late.

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Originally Posted by jokin

If the Orioles fall to last place, the FO will be viewed as misguided in their approach and jobs could very well be on the line. Davey Johnson aint getting any younger either. He'll be 70 next month and would probably rather strike while the iron is hot than wait to try for a title later. As you're from the neighborhood, you are aware that the Orioles have hit kind-of a long dry spell of late.

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Davey Johnson doesn't manage the Orioles. I don't see any way the Orioles win more then 80 games next year. Not in that division.

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

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Originally Posted by jokin

If the Orioles fall to last place, the FO will be viewed as misguided in their approach and jobs could very well be on the line. Davey Johnson aint getting any younger either. He'll be 70 next month and would probably rather strike while the iron is hot than wait to try for a title later. As you're from the neighborhood, you are aware that the Orioles have hit kind-of a long dry spell of late.

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Davey Johnson doesn't manage the Orioles. I don't see any way the Orioles win more then 80 games next year. Not in that division.

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You could have further informed him that Buck Showalter is the manager. At 56 he can be around for as long as he wants.

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Here's Orioles top 20 prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...pects-for-2013

Span, who was our best trade chip, got us a B+ prospect in Meyer. So there is no way we could get a guy like Gausman or Bundy or Machedo. There are untouchable. And after that, they don't have much. Morneau might get us a back end type starter. Not a lot to be excited about. Morneau's value will be much higher at the trade deadline, provided he stays healthy. If the Twins are 15 games back at the break but Morneau is putting up a solid/healthy season, he'd probably be the premier big bat on the market. Trade him then.

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before the new cba , i agree july trades drove up the return , but now with the new cba , and justin signed only through 2013 , the team that accuires him recieves no compensation if he leaves via free agency after the season , with or with out a qualifing offer

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Here's Orioles top 20 prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...pects-for-2013

Span, who was our best trade chip, got us a B+ prospect in Meyer. So there is no way we could get a guy like Gausman or Bundy or Machedo. There are untouchable. And after that, they don't have much. Morneau might get us a back end type starter. Not a lot to be excited about. Morneau's value will be much higher at the trade deadline, provided he stays healthy. If the Twins are 15 games back at the break but Morneau is putting up a solid/healthy season, he'd probably be the premier big bat on the market. Trade him then.

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Why is Morneau's value higher in midseason? What evidence are you using? How many trades of "hitters" in mideason have yielded a treasure of new talent? My memory is that these deals are viewed as "salary dumps" with little baseball talent recieved for said star. In the past month several teams have surfaced as potential "landing places" for Morneau, but come July virtually every contender has a 1B who hits. Many have stated concerns over Morneau's concussion, or wrist, or whatever and all cite his bloated salary--all of those issues will still be there in July. The Twins should actively move to trade him now and use the "salary reduction" to improve the pitching. The Twins can find others to play 1B.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Morneau, Perkins, 7 million, Hermsenn, Rosario, something else for Machado and Gausman. People laughed when I suggested Span for Gausmann, but that is pretty much what they did in getting Meyer. This will not happen, but I would make the offer. And yes, I know Gausmann would need to be a ptbnl.

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This may be the funniest thing I've ever read on the internet. Well played.

Don't they have to wait a full year since Gausman signed before they can trade him? Or is that wrong?

Bundy isn't going anywhere, so I don't think this trade is either. Schoop and Rodriguez, maybe? I would be happy tossing Hermsen in with Morneau.

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Originally Posted by Kwak

Why is Morneau's value higher in midseason? What evidence are you using? How many trades of "hitters" in mideason have yielded a treasure of new talent? My memory is that these deals are viewed as "salary dumps" with little baseball talent recieved for said star. In the past month several teams have surfaced as potential "landing places" for Morneau, but come July virtually every contender has a 1B who hits. Many have stated concerns over Morneau's concussion, or wrist, or whatever and all cite his bloated salary--all of those issues will still be there in July. The Twins should actively move to trade him now and use the "salary reduction" to improve the pitching. The Twins can find others to play 1B.

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Here is a very recent example: Carlos Beltran.

Look up what the Mets got for him, it was pretty good ;)

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Originally Posted by johnnydakota

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Here's Orioles top 20 prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...pects-for-2013

Span, who was our best trade chip, got us a B+ prospect in Meyer. So there is no way we could get a guy like Gausman or Bundy or Machedo. There are untouchable. And after that, they don't have much. Morneau might get us a back end type starter. Not a lot to be excited about. Morneau's value will be much higher at the trade deadline, provided he stays healthy. If the Twins are 15 games back at the break but Morneau is putting up a solid/healthy season, he'd probably be the premier big bat on the market. Trade him then.

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before the new cba , i agree july trades drove up the return , but now with the new cba , and justin signed only through 2013 , the team that accuires him recieves no compensation if he leaves via free agency after the season , with or with out a qualifing offer

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That's a good point. The counter point is that, at the deadline some team (say the Rangers) might be desperate for a LH power bat and won't have to take on 14m. If we trade Morneau now, we'd be trading him with still some questions on his health to go along with a huge salary. I think his return is better if there is a deadline market for him.

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Originally Posted by Kwak

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Here's Orioles top 20 prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...pects-for-2013

Span, who was our best trade chip, got us a B+ prospect in Meyer. So there is no way we could get a guy like Gausman or Bundy or Machedo. There are untouchable. And after that, they don't have much. Morneau might get us a back end type starter. Not a lot to be excited about. Morneau's value will be much higher at the trade deadline, provided he stays healthy. If the Twins are 15 games back at the break but Morneau is putting up a solid/healthy season, he'd probably be the premier big bat on the market. Trade him then.

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Why is Morneau's value higher in midseason? What evidence are you using? How many trades of "hitters" in mideason have yielded a treasure of new talent? My memory is that these deals are viewed as "salary dumps" with little baseball talent recieved for said star. In the past month several teams have surfaced as potential "landing places" for Morneau, but come July virtually every contender has a 1B who hits. Many have stated concerns over Morneau's concussion, or wrist, or whatever and all cite his bloated salary--all of those issues will still be there in July. The Twins should actively move to trade him now and use the "salary reduction" to improve the pitching. The Twins can find others to play 1B.

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Beltran got Zach Wheeler. Carlos Lee got Matt Dominguez and a pitcher (after a Dodger deal rumored to involve Eovaldi or Zach Lee was killed by Carlos Lee).

I think that, if Morneau puts together a solid 3 months, the concussion concerns won't be as prevalent. Esp for a team that could use a LH power bat. And playoff type teams last year that lacked a solid 1b included the Rangers and Dodgers.

I'd be fine getting Gausman for Morneau, but something tells me that Baltimore's GM won't have the same opinion...


then again, we could have had Gausman in the draft had we wanted him... It would be nice having an A- grade pitcher in the system instead of a B+ centerfielder.

I tend to agree that if Mornea simply repeats the 2nd half of this year at the beginning of next season, he's going to fetch something nice at the deadline.

I think everyone in this thread needs to realize that you are going to need an Upton or Andrus type player to get Machado and bundy. And Twins don't have the pieces to get Gausman.

Schoop might be an optimistic target. Arrieta might as well but the O's need pitching and the Twins don't have any to trade.

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Originally Posted by kab21

I think everyone in this thread needs to realize that you are going to need an Upton or Andrus type player to get Machado and bundy. And Twins don't have the pieces to get Gausman.

Schoop might be an optimistic target. Arrieta might as well but the O's need pitching and the Twins don't have any to trade.

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Realize that reality is not what many of the posts are based on.

Gausmann is pretty much Meyer, why do you feel he is so hard to get?

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Gausmann is pretty much Meyer, why do you feel he is so hard to get?

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No, he's significantly more valuable.

How? I am curious why we think Gausman is considerably more valuable. And if he is, why pass on him given the system they have?

Gausman is impossible to get as he can't be traded until August at the earliest.

Draft picks can't be traded until 1 year after their signing date.

I know that, but you can do a player to be named later...and then agree later it is him.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

How? I am curious why we think Gausman is considerably more valuable. And if he is, why pass on him given the system they have?

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Because he has better command, throws just as hard, and already has a great feel for his change.

There's a reason he went in the top 4, and was in the discussion at #1 overall, and Meyer was a late first round guy. The later guys generally have more warts, and the guys that go at the very top are usually more polished.

And I'd guess they passed because they had Buxton higher on their board. Best player available is the only way to go when you're picking at the top of the draft.

While you can do a PTBNL, I don't think you can wait 9 months to name that player.

I could see Gausman as a PTBNL in a June or July trade not a December or January one.