Crasnick: Joe Blanton a "prime target" for Twins

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12-03-2012, 06:01 PM
notoriousgod71

This was so obvious. I think 98% of posters here declared him to be our top target.
12-03-2012, 06:36 PM
drivlikejehu

I think Blanton is a bit better than his ERA with the Phillies would indicate. I definitely like him much, much more than Lannan. What good he really does the Twins is another question, other than the fact they have to throw someone out there.
12-03-2012, 06:38 PM
LaBombo

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

It looks like his HR% increased it, as well as a slight increase in BABIP and decrease in strand rate, who knows and maybe some bad luck?, and once Hicks is up our defense will probably be better then last year (OF wise), but since he actually strikes out people (unlike the rest of our rotation) it shouldn't matter as much? It is hard to argue with that K/BB ratio.

I don't think xFIP and FIP are an end all be all, but it does suggest that he was a bit undervalued.

That last sentence was what I was thinking, rather than that Blanton is some unfairly persecuted savant whose actual value is consistently and drastically understated by ERA and other conventional stats.

Not excited about either Blanton or 2013, but he's at least got a decent shot to exceed either the pitching slurry within our system or some of the expensive time bomb free agents who've already signed.
12-03-2012, 06:40 PM
LaBombo

Quote:

Originally Posted by notoriousgod71

This was so obvious. I think 98% of posters here declared him to be our top target.

What about Joe Saunders and his lower K rate? Poster child for what the Twins' pitching has become.
12-03-2012, 07:06 PM
Nick Nelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by USAFChief

Joe Blanton a prime target for Twins.

In Terry I trust?

Nicely done.
12-03-2012, 07:09 PM
AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

Twins also are kicking the tires on Vincente Padilla.....Joe Blanton....Vincente Padilla....Are you kidding me! This must be one sick sick joke Jerry Crasnick....one sick joke...
12-03-2012, 07:09 PM
Nick Nelson

In all honesty though, there are things to like about Lannan, but he's awfully similar to what they already have in Diamond. I'm not terribly confident in either one being very good next year, but both are capable of spinning a successful season with some BABIP love.
12-03-2012, 07:11 PM
Willihammer

Blanton isn't pretty but if Jr can get him for the right price I would be hardpressed to argue about it.
12-03-2012, 07:12 PM
ashburyjohn

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Blanton sucks, but I would rather have him at 1 year 2 mil then Dempster at 3 years. We still need to target a top tier guy though.

I don't want either of these, nor Correia. They all are about on a par with Deduno, but because they are "proven" starters they command a significant premium in price. I'd rather see them take what they would pay for Blanton, add half of what they are saving by trading away Span for a prospect, and apply it to getting Saunders - as mediocre as Saunders is, he has a chance to provide positive value versus some AAA nobody, and I'm not sure Blanton is capable of that.
12-03-2012, 07:14 PM
SpiritofVodkaDave

Quote:

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

It looks like his HR% increased it, as well as a slight increase in BABIP and decrease in strand rate, who knows and maybe some bad luck?, and once Hicks is up our defense will probably be better then last year (OF wise), but since he actually strikes out people (unlike the rest of our rotation) it shouldn't matter as much? It is hard to argue with that K/BB ratio.

I don't think xFIP and FIP are an end all be all, but it does suggest that he was a bit undervalued.

That last sentence was what I was thinking, rather than that Blanton is some unfairly persecuted savant whose actual value is consistently and drastically understated by ERA and other conventional stats.

Not excited about either Blanton or 2013, but he's at least got a decent shot to exceed either the pitching slurry within our system or some of the expensive time bomb free agents who've already signed.

I mean the k rate and BB rate doesn't lie. So maybe there is something there, Bill James prediction for 2013 holds a little weigh for me to. If he can give you the 4.10 ERA and 180 IP James suggests Blanton would be a fine pick up on an affordable one year deal.

I think people get to up in arms at this point, the Twins need 2-3 FA starting pitchers. Best case scenario is they sign one of the "Tier 1" guys on the market: Grienke, Sanchez, Haren? Marcum? Jackson? at some point if you want to have more then one pitcher the Twins are going to have to grab one or two of these secondary Tier guys as well. As far as these secondary tier guys go (lannan, Blanton, Liriano) I don't mind it as long as its a one year deal.

Hopefully they can get a couple decent cheap effective finds and add on a tier 1 guy on a long term deal.
12-03-2012, 07:14 PM
ashburyjohn

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

In all honesty though, there are things to like about Lannan, but he's awfully similar to what they already have in Diamond.

And since the Twins are in the unenviable position of lacking depth to even that degree, Lannan is worth pursuing, again if at a price that a Blanton would come at plus half of the Span Savings.
12-03-2012, 07:16 PM
SpiritofVodkaDave

Quote:

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Blanton sucks, but I would rather have him at 1 year 2 mil then Dempster at 3 years. We still need to target a top tier guy though.

I don't want either of these, nor Correia. They all are about on a par with Deduno, but because they are "proven" starters they command a significant premium in price. I'd rather see them take what they would pay for Blanton, add half of what they are saving by trading away Span for a prospect, and apply it to getting Saunders - as mediocre as Saunders is, he has a chance to provide positive value versus some AAA nobody, and I'm not sure Blanton is capable of that.

Is Saunders even better then Blanton? a quick check of career numbers has them about the same, and Blanton had an xFIP and FIP quite a bit lower then Saunders last year as well.

At the end of the day, its not like there is a right answer, both Blanton and Saunders are #4/#5 types anyways.
12-03-2012, 07:17 PM
ashburyjohn

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Blanton isn't pretty but if Jr can get him for the right price I would be hardpressed to argue about it.

If the right price is $1M, sure, but it won't be. He's a Proven Commodity and will command $5M, won't he?

I guess for this discussion to work, we need to reach some consensus on what each of the pitchers on the market will go for. I'm sure that my guesses are shaky.
12-03-2012, 07:35 PM
mike wants wins

I want one really good pitcher, one average pitcher and 2 reclamation projects. I do not want all dumpster dives.....still hoping.
12-03-2012, 07:42 PM
Twins Twerp

Blanton would be an upgrade and maybe teach the young guys coming up how to pitch. We will def suck with him as our ace but hes better than de vries
12-03-2012, 07:44 PM
Willihammer

What are we up to in terms of the likely amount of cash Jr can blow this offseason. $30m after moving Span? I think if Blanton takes less than a third of that next year, and isn't locked up more than 4 years, we are doing okay. Something like 4/36. He is a half-calibre better than your Jeremy Guthries and Kevin Correia's, in my opinion. I feel like he will get a lot of cheap 3 year deals and the team who offers a 4th will take him.
12-03-2012, 07:45 PM
luke829

Quote:

Originally Posted by puckett1992

If this hasn't been mentioned already, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick had some notes from the winter meetings today that are relevant to the Twins:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...-more-pitching

His article mentions that Joe Blanton is a prime target for the Twins, which, I suppose shouldn't be surprising. He also mentions pitchers such as Kevin Correia, Brett Myers, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, and Vincente Padilla (???) as possible targets.

I would expect the Twins to sign at least one of these types and think that Blanton, Myers, or Pelfrey could be decent additions and provide some depth/insurance for the development of Kyle Gibson and Liam Hendricks. Hopefully the price will be right if adding any of these.

I can see yearly revenues shooting through the roof
12-03-2012, 07:46 PM
SpiritofVodkaDave

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willihammer

What are we up to in terms of the likely amount of cash Jr can blow this offseason. $30m after moving Span? I think if Blanton takes less than a third of that next year, and isn't locked up more than 4 years, we are doing okay. Something like 4/36. He is a half-calibre better than your Jeremy Guthries and Kevin Correia's, in my opinion. I feel like he will get a lot of cheap 3 year deals and the team who offers a 4th will take him.

I could be pretty shocked if a team gives Blanton 3 years. I have him pegged at 1 year (maybe two, but that is a stretch) at 4-6 mil per year. He is coming off of two pretty bad years (ERA wise)
12-03-2012, 07:46 PM
Fire Dan Gladden

I would like to remind everybody that we are not going to sign 4 aces this winter. Regardless of whether we land an ace or not, we need to upgrade at virtually every rotation spot. Blanton would be an upgrade, however minor it may end up being.
12-03-2012, 07:55 PM
ashburyjohn

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Blanton would be an upgrade, however minor it may end up being.

Based on his results the past year or two (or three...) in the DH-less NL, I just don't see how he is anymore.

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