The Grienke Factor

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe at this point, the Twins haven't signed a single new Major League contract.

I suspect it's all hinging on Grienke. Wether or not we are actually seriously pursuing him, he's holding up everything. If by some miracle we sign him, it will clearly set out how much money we'll have left to spend. If it's with someone else, it well set the mark for other top FA pitchers, and will help their agents determine what to ask for.

Terry Ryan's inaction up to this point on the major league level I think indicates how seriously he views revamping the pitching. Once the top pitchers start setting their price, we'll see him go after a few, and I think only AFTER we've signed a couple starters will they start seriously looking to see how much money they have left to invest in our other question marks (SS, 2B, 3B, maybe RF). That probably means we won't see much of an upgrade to our IF, but hopefully will see a SP signing better than a Jason Marquis.

So in essence, I'm betting we start seeing a flurry of Twins activity as soon as Grienke signs.

Thoughts?

Its a chess match for every team right now. They don't want to overbid, but they want to acquire talent. Agents and GM's are just negotiating and getting the feel of things. Grienke signing will make a big impact and things will start moving much faster, but the same could be said for Haren I believe.

I think this offseason is unique since there are indications (TOR and LAD trades) that revenues are going to explode in the next couple of seasons (new TV contracts). Agents/players are expecting teams to go nuts because of this extra money but I think most teams are trying not to spend money that they don't have yet.

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Originally Posted by kab21

I think this offseason is unique since there are indications (TOR and LAD trades) that revenues are going to explode in the next couple of seasons (new TV contracts). Agents/players are expecting teams to go nuts because of this extra money but I think most teams are trying not to spend money that they don't have yet.

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Agreed im expecting at least 30% increase in upper tier players salaries, so why not tie up a sanchez or grienke now
In 3 years there paychecks will look small compared to others

it all depends on whether or not they are getting 6/120+ and 6/90. I think Greinke is going to get one of the biggest pitching contracts ever.

I agree. The top will set the price for the rest.

typically the top FA's set the market during winter meetings. If you are targeting a guy before then, you are going to end up likely overpaying. So to answer your quest, yes Zach is definitely setting the market. When he goes, the rest of the dominos will start to fall.

I will be very surprised if next week at this time, we do not have two new starting pitchers under contract.

Minn55441,

Yup, Twins will sign 2-3 of Liriano, Myers, Blanton, Saunders, Jurrens, or Lannan. How in the world is that going to help up compete this season. Ryan said we were not rebuilding than traded our best chip for a prospect. He said earlier in the off-season the free agent market was thin and the team would concentrate on making a few trades. Assistant GM Rob Attony said after the Span trade they will concentrate on free agents at the Winter Meetings. Does anybody out there really expect the team to sign a Edwin Jackson or Anabal Sanchez. Come on, it will be the same dumpster diving methods we have seen for years.

Well jack, I guess we have to wait a week and see what TR has up his sleeve. I really don't think we can trust a lot of what is currently being reported as TR has never been one to tip his hand. I was not encouraged by this quote in todays pioneer press,

"I don't think we'll be compelled to spend a lot of money without the legitimate chance of getting a good return on it," Ryan said. "If (fans) are expecting that, they're probably going to be disappointed. I'll give innings to guys we have and try to build a good future before I just waste money (on a free agent)."

I did say I would be surprised if we don't have two new starters by this time next week, I didn't say anything about whether I would be disappointed in who those two new starters would be. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Let him make some moves. I'm happy with the Span trade, maybe he will surprise us and come up with a good FA signing, that helps in 2013 and beyond.