Thread: Is this the offseason to extend Revere?

Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

Originally Posted by Willihammer

he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.

If by a little batted ball luck you mean an increase of 100+ points in OPS over night then you are correct.

I still tend to think WAR gives to much credit to defense and base running, (especially defense at a non premium position like OF) so WAR shouldn't be as a stand alone IMO

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

Once you introduce Hicks into the discussion you have negated the need to extend Revere. By your own words you classify Revere as a #9 batter and Hicks as a #1 batter--who will average nearly a full plate appearance more than a #9 batter--and clearly is more important.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?

You have a point. But I think we all know Gardy will slot Revere at leadoff whether he deserves to be there or not, after which point I imagine it becomes a lot less easy for the Twins to say in any contract negotiation or arbitration hearing that Revere is not your team's leadoff hitter. As it is, arguing for him being the 9 hitter may be tough, since Gardy batted him mostly in the 2 hole when Span was here.

Honestly, I don't know if his spot in the lineup matters much anyway, either from a strategic standpoint or a contract negotiation standpoint. My argument boils down to the fact that barring injury, regardless of where you bat Revere or place him in the outfield, he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.

Then any fast guy is worth two wins. Do theTwins have any more of these guys? If so, no need to obligate the team to Revere.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

This is a somewhat circular argument. Part of the reason Mauer batted well with runners on base last year is that the guys in front of him were speedy. Mauer had a .288 BABIP on ground balls, in part because the mere threat of having Span or Revere standing on 1st created a nice hole for him on the 2nd base side. Then there is the fact that Span and Revere both run 1st to 3rd, 1st to home, 2nd to home at a rate higher than league average.

Originally Posted by Kwak

Then any fast guy is worth two wins. Do theTwins have any more of these guys? If so, no need to obligate the team to Revere.

Revere isn't any fast guy. He's the fastest player in baseball over the last two years, if you put any stock in fangraphs baserunning and defensive metrics. And no, bringing Hicks into the discussion doesn't cancel anything. Where guys bat in the order tends to be overblown. I would only call him a 9 hitter inasmuch as it might be favorable for the Twins in a contract negotiation.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

This is a somewhat circular argument. Part of the reason Mauer batted well with runners on base last year is that the guys in front of him were speedy. Mauer had a .288 BABIP on ground balls, in part because the mere threat of having Span or Revere standing on 1st created a nice hole for him on the 2nd base side. Then there is the fact that Span and Revere both run 1st to 3rd, 1st to home, 2nd to home at a rate higher than league average.

Mauer has always batted well with RISP. .343/.460/.498 for his career. And a runner on 1st base isn't considered a batting opportunity with RISP

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

My opinion is no teams in the MLB would extend a #9 hitter. Is he really that important? He is not going to get faster as he gets older. That's his only asset!

Good god....this thread is still going? Regardless of what Ben Revere is or is not - extending guys with roughly 2 years of service time is not a good idea. It is almost never done and for good reasons, all of which have been laid out ad nauseum.

The fact that Revere has many question marks as a starter long term only bolsters what is already a definitively bad idea.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

.350 is good, .360 or higher is better.

But really, I want a guy who isn't so reliant on BABIP so I look at BB%. 8% is pretty good, 9-10% is better. Span walked around 8.5% of the time last season, I believe. Mauer was almost at 14%, IIRC. Revere was around 5%. That's bad.

And as others have mentioned, you don't worry about extending your #9 hitter.

To me, its more a question of when, not if. Between Revere's speed and his ability to put the ball in play, he could post a .340 BABIP or higher in any given season like Pierre has, and Span has, in which case he becomes that .350 OBP, 4-5 win player, and a lot more expensive.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

To me, its more a question of when, not if. Between Revere's speed and his ability to put the ball in play, he could post a .340 BABIP or higher in any given season like Pierre has, and Span has, in which case he becomes that .350 OBP, 4-5 win player, and a lot more expensive.

And then you cash that chip in, deal him to someone else, and let them pay.