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I think Revere's arm is overplayed. Does it hurt the team? Sure, any weak arm in RF/CF is going to hurt the team. Is it significant enough to matter enough to use as an argument to discount his range? Probably not. I'm fine with Revere's defense; I think it's the rest of his game that will hold him back. I wish the best for the guy but I've seen too many players like him stall out in their late 20s. He's a bad bet for extension. That's all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverbrian
Ben Revere has spent parts of just three seasons in the major leagues, played in a mere 13 games in the first of those three seasons, and qualified for the batting title for the first time in 2012. Yet, he is not only the active career leader among all major leaguers in a specific department, but has a huge lead in that particular area. Ben Revere has had 1,064 major league plate appearances but has not hit a single major league home run.
To put that in context, among players who came to the plate in the majors in 2012 yet finished the year with a career home run total of zero, the next 22 highest career plate appearances totals all belong to pitchers (led by Ryan Dempster at 688). After Revere, the next non-pitcher on that list is former Twin Tsuyoshi Nishioka, whose major league career appears to have come to an end after just 254 plate appearances. The next non-pitcher who is expected to appear in the majors in 2013 is Brewers shortstop Jean Segura, a rookie in 2012 who has just 166 major league plate appearances.
Ben Revere has not only never hit a home run in the major leagues, he has never flown out to the warning track.
'I think Revere's arm is overplayed. Does it hurt the team? Sure, any weak arm in RF/CF is going to hurt the team. Is it significant enough to matter enough to use as an argument to discount his range?' Probably not.
I agree
Revere may or may not turn out to be a good player, bit the only reason to extend him would be to reduce the risk of losing him because he gets too expensive. This seems to be a low risk at this point, so there is no need to sign him right now. If he gets better, then is the time to think about it.
I know Jokin... You and I have been on the same side.
Like I said... I'm trying to back down. My Revere man crush is getting a little over developed with each and every post. Honestly I'm not trying to build a shrine to him... He's just a young ball player... It's just that some comments allude me.... I'd like to back-er down because its just making the division deeper... But... Just when I thought I was out... They pull me back in.
This time it was Pucks comment "everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't take on real MLB arms".
Although you have supported Revere... Your post in response to that seemed to agree. So I said "you guys" in response but all in all... I've been happy that you and others have been In support. If I was the only one.. I'd be like Will Farrell running down the street in The movie Old School. I'm not and at the end of the day... We just got ourselves a difference in opinion. What we think and what some others think.
Puck's comment was flat out false and it just piles on the Ben Revere negative stereotype being built and I didn't want it to just let it get left there... Like it was remotely true. His arm is sub par but any impression that runners are flying around the bases on that arm is wrong. There have been times and there will be more times when the arm will give up a base or a run. However... Sub par arm does not mean he would do better running the ball into the infield and trying to tag the advancing runner. Ben can still throw it faster then even players of his speed can run and if he has the ball in his hand. The runner ain't going. I have also seen Ben catch the ball at the wall and throw it to first base on a hop. Granted... more air on it than most but let's not give the impression that players are heading to third at a disturbing percentage. No evidence to support that claim and its a false generalization.
i honestly don't like being this convicted on a player because there are no guarentees in baseball. Hamilton can sign for 100 million and hit .220 the rest of his life ... this Revere argument is starting to make me sound like I'm guaranteeing his place in Cooperstown and that isnt the case. i just think hes been good baseball and there is value that some dont appreciate because they like some skill he's lacking I'm guessing. I also realize that most of the detractors don't hate Ben but if this keeps up... Their convictions being challenged may end up causing more and more dislike.
I have a big mouthed opinion like many on this site and I ain't afraid to express it. However... People can check my posts. Typically... I have no problem saying "I don't know when I don't know". I go to great pains to say "I think" "I believe" in my posts to make sure that Its clear i'm expressing opinion. I try to be self deprecating because I've been wrong plenty of times and occasionally I'm pretty dead sure about what Im saying.
On the other side of the coin... We have Vodkadave saying "he will never" which is pretty definite in and out of context. I also didn't really appreciate the Vodkadave comment that you and I have a first grade knowledge of baseball and statistics and then saying he didn't mean to be harsh... also like Will Farrell in Talladega Nights with the all due respect line. Anyway... that's just his style so I'm trying to let that go... But... Obviously haven't yet since I just brought it up again.
BTW... Dave... I'm 47 years old ... I've been breathing in an unhealthy amount of baseball for almost 4 decades. From playing to coaching to umping to spending beautiful summer nights inside watching and reading and rainy nights outside trying to get a field ready to play. There are plenty of people who know more about the game in the whole wide world than I do including a bunch of folks on this site. It is after all... Just a quirky passion of mine. But I think I'm past the 1st grade level.
Lets not confuse my 1st grade punctuation level for some kinda of baseball knowledge deficiency because we disagree on something. As for understanding metrics. OK... If you say so. I hope to get to 2nd grade someday. Be patient with me.
One last thing... I don't know if it occurs to the posters of Twins Daily. But I'm guessing that Twins players read this forum. I'm sure some stay away from it and they are smart if they do... but it's not far fetched to think that some are drawn to the "what are they saying about me now". Insecurities that we all have.
In my opinion... It's Ok to have honest discussion of skill sets but keep in mind that this is the internet. These ain't private discussions. The nasty mean comments lack taste and a bunch of other social graces.
Agree with this 100%, the weak arm angle is way overplayed, I watch just about every game and didn't see nearly as many "parties" going on between 1st and 3rd, it's being greatly exaggerated, sorry.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock BeauchampI think Revere's arm is overplayed. Does it hurt the team? Sure, any weak arm in RF/CF is going to hurt the team. Is it significant enough to matter enough to use as an argument to discount his range? Probably not. I'm fine with Revere's defense; I think it's the rest of his game that will hold him back. I wish the best for the guy but I've seen too many players like him stall out in their late 20s. He's a bad bet for extension. That's all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverbrian
He's a classic flame out type player though, there is a laundry list of guys who profile just like him that came before and ended up in the "I can't run as fast anymore" trash heap. I don't see much point in extending at this point, love to watch him play at times for now.
'Puck's comment was flat out false and it just piles on the Ben Revere negative stereotype being built and I didn't want it to just let it get left there... Like it was remotely true. His arm is sub par but any impression that runners are flying around the bases on that arm is wrong. There have been times and there will be more times when the arm will give up a base or a run. However... Sub par arm does not mean he would do better running the ball into the infield and trying to tag the advancing runner. Ben can still throw it faster then even players of his speed can run and if he has the ball in his hand. The runner ain't going. I have also seen Ben catch the ball at the wall and throw it to first base on a hop. Granted... more air on it than most but let's not give the impression that players are heading to third at a disturbing percentage. No evidence to support that claim and its a false generalization.'
You make it sound like I'm purposely throwing false info out there to dog him. I watched the games too and that's what it seemed like to me. If there's evidence to support that my impression is wrong, and it seems there is from what you've posted, that's fine. But don't act as if I threw stuff out there knowing it was wrong just to dog him. I don't have any agenda when it comes to him. I want them all to be good players. I was just pointing out what it looked like to me. I'm not the first or last guy whose eyes have deceived him. His arm seems to me to be the weakest in baseball...from what I've seen. Whether that's true or not who knows, but it's damn weak
I appreciate the info you posted. It's good to see. Makes me feel better about him out there.
I'm not sure why you are getting so sensitive to me disagree with you, I never said anything about your baseball knowledge or anything like that. If I made you think that then I apologize.Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverbrian
You say I am trashing Ben Revere or whatever or being mean and I disagree. The fact is, I see him as a 4th OF moving forward (a very good 4th OF for what its worth) who should be able to stick in the league a long time, Juan Pierre has plenty of value as well, he's just better suited to not be in your lineup every day like Revere.
We can disagree all day on how important Revere's arm is, but from what I have seen, read etc he has the weakest arm of any OF in baseball. I don't see how he suddenly is going to improve at this point, I always thought in the minors they should have tried to switch him to 2B because of this (and the lack of 'pop'). Also I am not saying arm is an end all be all for OF's. But it does matter, teams were running all over Revere in RF because he literally has to hit the cutoff man who is further out in the OF then I have ever seen.
Now with that said, he does have elite range and excellent speed, moving him to CF actually helps his range/speed outshine/hide his arm even more. Do I think he is a perfectly fine stop gap for a year or two on a rebuilding team? Sure. I just don't see him ever becoming a legit major league starter because as I mentioned before, he will need to hit for a .330 average in order to get to that .725 OPS range.
If you think that is me "trashing him" or you are worried that he might read this and get hurt feelings or whatever I think you need to be slightly less sensitive. I'm sure Ben Revere is well aware of his arm deficiencies and his inability to hit for power.
I have no problem with "the kid" and hope he proves me wrong, I think he is looking at a long career ahead of him in the majors at this point anyways. I have never said he doesn't belong on the team, nor have said he doesn't belong in the league. He will have a Juan Pierre type career IMO and that isn't a bad thing. At this point however I think it would be a mistake to count on him long term as a starter on this team, especially with so many potentially superior options in our system: Hicks, Arcia, Rosario (if he moves back to CF), Buxton, Keppler. Benson?
I also think if they get an offer for a pitcher that can help moving forward they need to trade him because of two things:
1. I don't think he is able to match last years numbers offensively, he struggled quite a bit down the stretch as teams began to make adjustments to him. If you aren't a risk to even hit doubles, teams are going to move the OF in and you will see zero walks.
2. They have a ton of depth for OF, and absurd amount of depth in the minors for CF. If you can use Revere to fill other holes, you gotta pull the trigger. One of the Twins in house guys can match his production by the end of the year no doubt.
Just stop taking it so personally...
For clairification on my diatribe.
My Comment to you Puck was simply my correction of Puck's everybody and their brothers assertion. This is just my opinion but I believfe it's possible that some are assuming this because Ben's arm is sub-par. I hold no ill will against you persoanlly... you are a smart guy and I enjoy your posts.
My Comment to you Vodkadave was only in reference to your 1st grade level comment. I also enjoy your posts and hold no ill will against you personally. I don't disagree with your sentiments entirely on Ben... You are right on many things about Ben. I think wrong on some but none of us are right yet... I think it's possible that we look at ball players differently.
The Part about players reading this site... Was not directed at you. It was directed to anyone who forgets or doesn't realize it... I typed a lot of words and didn't properly seperate that section of my long post.
The only thing I took personally was the 1st grade level thing.
That wasn't even directed at you: Here is the whole quote:Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverbrian
the day Revere proves he can hit for even a .700 OPS (Which is still on the "way below average end of the spectrum for OF's) then maybe we can think about having this conversation. Until then, he is nothing more then a 4th OF, or a stop gap CF on a 90 loss type team.
Anyone who argues otherwise on the basis of "He is exciting!!" or whatever doesn't have the faintest idea of how baseball works and understands statistics at a 1st grade level. Not trying to be harsh, but it's the truth.
Maybe it was a little "harsh" but IMO the fact remains that nothing Revere has done to this point has shown me that he can even sustain a .700 OPS at the major league level, which IMO would be still be on the very low end of what would be "acceptable" for a starting OF. Even less so on a competitive team.
OPS is a convenient stat when you want to undersell a no power high contact speed guy.
One of the differences between extending Revere now, compared to Blackburn, is that Blackburn was coming off two of the best seasons you could reasonably expect to get from a guy with his stuff. Guys who get no strikeouts and rely on batted ball luck and borderline strike calls have very low floors, as we all know by now. The luck Blackburn had in 2008-2009 just doesn't go on for years on end.
Revere on the other hand, has his value preserved by speed. Speed is a large part of the reason Span's deal didn't prove a bust when his luck returned to earth likek Blackburn's. Yes, there is risk Revere breaks an ankle or strains a calf and he becomes worthless until healed. Injury risk is part of the genesis for these team friendly deals in the first place. But if he doesn't miss significant time, then worst case scenario we get more of what we've already seen with Revere's .308 BABIP and ultra low walk rate. There is a cliche, "speed never goes in slumps." Advanced stats are starting to prove the truth in that. Speed that is as elite as Revere's is worth roughly 2-3 wins/year on average, in just baserunning and defense. That, or production a hair below that, is his floor.
The ceiling is something like Juan Pierre's age 25-30 seasons where he had a couple .320, .340 BABIP years. I believe that Revere is capable of improving his ground ball tendencies and improve his walk rate by just taking more pitches in hitter counts (Pierre hit the ball on the ground 61% of the time in his age 24 season), during his arbitration years, and then the savings will start to be realized.
There is also the fact that where Pierre was peaking towards the end of the steroid era, Revere is peaking during a time where the stolen base and speed are more valuable than ever. The break even point on stolen bags is down to like 64%. Its ridiculous. So there is some marginal value there just by virtue of how his arbitration years line up with leaguewide trends.
Have you read Bill James' 1982 article entitled 'So What's All the Fuss?'?Quote:
Originally Posted by Willihammer
Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.Quote:
Originally Posted by Willihammer
It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.
I have now. Its a good read but James is hung up on the stat itself and ignoring the broader skill of good baserunning that good basestealers tend to be. First to third, first to home, 2nd to home, tagging on short pop flies, etc. These are all peanut skills in an of themselves but when you can do all of them, and steal 50-60 bases when given full playing time, the peanuts add up quickly. There is also the fact that the Twins are among the worst teams at hitting home runs in an era when homeruns are trending down leaguewide.Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePuck
I'm not sure Revere is quite the good baserunner yet, even with his speed. Saw him take a good lead at 1B, the batter had two strikes and there were two outs (so, he should have know he was off at the crack of the bat), the ball was a clear, no doubt double bouncing all the way to the LF wall (so he would have seen that on his way to 2B). The batter/runner glided into 2B and Revere ended up on 3rd. With his speed he should have cruised into home.Quote:
Originally Posted by WillihammerI have now. Its a good read but James is hung up on the stat itself and ignoring the broader skill of good baserunning that good basestealers tend to be. First to third, first to home, 2nd to home, tagging on short pop flies, etc. These are all peanut skills in an of themselves but when you can do all of them, and steal 50-60 bases when given full playing time, the peanuts add up quickly. There is also the fact that the Twins are among the worst teams at hitting home runs in an era when homeruns are trending down leaguewide.Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePuck
He has some work to do and he needs to work on getting on-base at a better clip.
Baseball Reference tracks situation baserunning. Revere is above average in every respect
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...be01-bat.shtml
comparison to league average.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...-batting.shtml
Fangraphs measures the baserunning value at 14 runs over the past two years, playing 120 games/season.
What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.
And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?Quote:
Originally Posted by WillihammerWhat is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.
I wanna see how he does upon his return to the leadoff spot...where he'll likely see less fastballs. Again, his power is non-existent, so his OBP needs to be significantly higher than average. If he becomes a #9 hitter, and he won't yet, might not for awhile, that makes it even less important to extend himQuote:
Originally Posted by WillihammerWhat is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.
You have a point. But I think we all know Gardy will slot Revere at leadoff whether he deserves to be there or not, after which point I imagine it becomes a lot less easy for the Twins to say in any contract negotiation or arbitration hearing that Revere is not your team's leadoff hitter. As it is, arguing for him being the 9 hitter may be tough, since Gardy batted him mostly in the 2 hole when Span was here.Quote:
Originally Posted by FrodaddyG
Honestly, I don't know if his spot in the lineup matters much anyway, either from a strategic standpoint or a contract negotiation standpoint. My argument boils down to the fact that barring injury, regardless of where you bat Revere or place him in the outfield, he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.