The Hesitation To Trade Willingham

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Originally Posted by raindog

If we can get a B-level pitching prospect, than you take it. Building for the future is the goal.

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I agree. My criteria for the return in a Willingham trade is at least 1 pitching prospect with the following characteristics:
a) Unarguably a top-10 prospect in the Twins system.
b) ETA to majors of at least 2015.
These other characteristics would be nice, but not necessary:
c) Consensus top-100 prospect in MLB (Meyer fits this)
d) High-end stuff
Basically, I would like another pitcher like Meyer for Willingham. I guess I could be talked into a middle-infielder, but I'd prefer another pitcher.

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Originally Posted by John Bonnes

I'm not totally opposed to trading away Josh Willingham, but I do think people are underestimating just how rarely the Twins have been able to find a right-handed slugger like him. If I was going to do a story on this (I still might) each of these points might make a nice paragraph, but I'll throw them out there an let you react to them.

1. When was the last time the Twins had a right-handed slugger like Willingham? I would posit that it was 1988, when they traded away Bruno for Tommy Herr. Since then, Hunter and Cuddy have been close, and both had a middle of the lineup presence and both left for much better money.
2. When the Twins have Mauer and Morneau, both left-handed hitting, I can't blame them for trying like hell to have that guy on the roster. (If Parmelee replaces Morneau, that doesn't change things.)
3. That was the whole reason for trading for Delmon Young.
4. It's even more important than it has been for the last 25 years because they now play in Target field, and right-handed pull hitters are seemingly the one hitter that can thrive there.

I understand that people want to treat Willingham as a stock and "Sell High" but it's not a great analogy. It's not like he can just be moved to a similar stock - there just aren't a lot of guys with that kind of pull power ont he market.

About the only way I can justify moving him is that the Twins need to rebuild for the next TWO years, and if that's the road we think we need to travel, than there are whole lot of other moves that need to be looked at too, like targeting a whole bunch of AA-AAA pitching prospects.

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I agree with all 4 of your points to some extent. I do think that hitters like Joe Mauer and Denard Span, who have high OBPs and good doubles power can thrive in at Target Field. I also don't believe in compounding mistakes. Trading for Delmon was a mistake, but keeping Willingham just to justify the mindset that created that move would be compounding the mistake and making it worse. Plus, all four of your points were true last year, Willingham had a monster year, and the Twins still lost 96 games. If we could preserve Willingham in a jar for a couple years so that he doesn't age and his contract doesn't run out, he might be worth keeping. Looking at the roster built around him, it doesn't seem likely that the Twins improve enough to make it worthwhile.

The deal he signed was awesome, and a huge bargain. He was a stud last year. None of that changes the team outlook for 2013 and possibly 2014. The only way to turn Willingham's deal into a regrettable one would be to waste the asset with a rotten team around him and then get nothing in return for his value. Signing Willingham was not a mistake (obviously) but letting him play out his contract without exploring what he could bring in return would be a huge mistake. I agree that he is hard to replace, but that is also not a reason to pass on a good deal.

I think the last statement you made is the reality. Trading Span makes this team worse for the next couple years and trading all the valuable pieces for young assets seems to be the way the team needs to go. It will be painful for a couple years, but could pay off huge by 2015. Patience is virtue. By 2015, there could be right handed power bats available to sign or trade for as well.

This can all change with some key additions in the off-season, so I reserve the right to change my mind. If the team feels they can contend next year, then they are justified in keeping him. Personally, I need more data and I would like to see how things play out. This is how I feel right now, based on what has already happened.

It's basically a tossup. If they trade Willingham for prospects, they're admitting that they're not trying next year and the ticket sales plummet. If they trade him for ML-ready SP, it's probably not as good as we need it to be, and when the team doesn't improve fans revolt. If they keep him, they risk regression or injury, and little return on a perceived asset. This is why being an armchair GM is so much fun.

Personally I'm betting on the Twins not bailing on next season until after the season has started, which means they don't deal Willingham til the deadline. I think I'd prefer trading Willingham for a high upside prospect if possible, but I'm not going to be surprised or upset when it doesn't happen.

I don't think Willingham gets traded this offseason. The thing that would of made such a trade possible, is that if Joe Benson would have continued progressing. He had moved through the system with Parmelee, putting up better numbers most of way, until 2012 crapped out on him. He is just about about the only power, right handed bat in the upper minors. He could be the logical successor to Willingham. It would be very good for the Twins if Benson, Hicks and Arcia can all settle in at AAA this coming year and put together dominating seasons, all of a sudden the Twins have all sorts of trade possibilities. Assuming, of course, that Willingham, Morneau and Parmelee are all healthy and productive.

I don't imagine all of those things will happen. Still, the Twins really need some guys to show they are ready before they move Willingham or anybody else.

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Originally Posted by jorgenswest

Trade him and add some cash to get the highest upside prospect offered.

There is a very high likelihood of a significant decline or significant injury before the commitment ends.

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Willingham ended the 2012 season on the DL, didn't he? I wonder if Terry Ryan is receiving lowball offers for him right now, and if he presses for a grade-A pitching prospect he's told "let's talk again near the end of Spring Training and we'll see how well he's recovered."