Printable View
According to MLB Trade Rumors Nick Cafardo says that Pavano was cleared medically in September and could sign a minor league deal. Should the Twins persue this? I think on a minor league deal, it can't hurt. If he pitches well in ST, he could be at the back of the rotation. If he pitches poorly or is still injured, you cut him. And he doesn't take up a spot on the 40-man. Discuss
Absolutely. Though I think getting him on a minor league deal is optimistic.
This year, the Twins totally misdiagnosed his injury, so I don' t know what you can take from it. But in 2010 and 2011 he threw 443 innings. His ERA was about 4 and so was his xFIP and FIP. And the injury was a bone bruise, not something ligament related.
Frankly, if you can get that guy on a minor league deal, not only do you do it, but there is not excuse for building a very good rotation strictly from the free agent market. All that's required is patience.
Absolutely not he's got nothing left in the tank also the team doesn't plan to contend next year so he's just filling a spot get somebody with some upside they will have a chance to get better.
Three concerns...
Citing 2010-2011 stats really doesn't project how a pitcher declines from age 34 to 37. The decrease in average fastball should be a concern. There was a decrease from 2010 to 2011. Corresponding his xFIP increased from 3.86 to 4.14. Last year, a huge drop occurred. How can any team know that all of the drop was due to the injury? How much should his age factor into the decision?
The second concern is that some pitchers are inning eaters. Is there any basis where it would be reasonable to project that Pavano will be more likely to stay healthy all of 2013 than another pitcher. Is there a mathematical way to use data that would indicate a projection of inning eating?
Maybe it is reasonable to project Pavano with 200 innings of 4.50 ERA. That would look good relative to Blackburn. Even so, wouldn't the Twins be better off risking those inning and starts with a younger pitcher? A pitcher with a chane to be part if the future solution.
Look at the decisions the Twins made in 1997 and 1998. They signed old guys like Tewksbury and Morgan. They weren't terrible. They also continued the cycle of mediocrity. In 1999 and 2000, they stopped doing that. They gave the innings to younger players. They suffered through a 63 win season in 1999. A 21 year old Santana had an ERA over 6 in 2000. In 1998 those innings would have gone to a decline phase pitcher like Greg Swindell. Swindell was reasonably successful. He was not part of the solution. Santana on the other hand...
There is very little risk in given him an invite to Spring Training. In fact, I wouldn't be opposed to him signing a non-guaranteed major-league deal (which is probably something that he would be more likely to agree to). I've pointed it out before - the Twins have 4(!) starting pitches (Diamond, De Vries, Hendriks, Hernandez) on their 40-man roster. I'd accumulate as many starting arms as I can. It's not like he'd be standing in the way of major-league-ready prospects.
Doogie Tweet in response to if the Twins will offer him a minor league deal: If anything, yes. No shot the #MNTwins, or anyone else will give him a major league offer.
No need to sign him to minor league deal as their is NO way he wouldnt make the opening day roster & MN wont fill up their 40 man anyways. With Deolis Guerra, their is gonna be a guy DFA'd in spring training anyways to clear a spot if/when they do.
I thought last summer that they would resign Pav, so till he signs somewhere else....I think he's in teams plans
spent, finished, the end. definitely not. please.
The risk in signing him to a minor league deal is that he would be a shoe in to make the roster. I like Pavano, but I woudln't pay him with the Cub's money right now. We don't need another 85 mph fastball guy who doesn't strike anyone out.
Good lord...giving Pavano $16.5m two years ago was a mistake, and an easy one to see coming. And some people want to repeat that mistake? I thought the idea was to improve the pitching.
I have zero use for Pavano at this point. With that said, if you don't count on him to be in the rotation (and therefore, it doesn't impact who you sign or don't sign), signing him to a minor league contract may not be the worst idea in the world.
But I'd rather see the team move on entirely.
time to move on, new twins ERA
Pavano was a nice acquisition a couple years ago and he was a true player while he was with the Twins. But...He just doesnt have it anymore. Go take your millions and super hot wife and retire Pavano.
I could see them resigning him to a major league contract, but it would have to something like $1-2 mil with incentives.
A healthy Pavano makes the rotation better. I would take 200 ip with a 4.50 era in the rotation at this point, especially in the 4/5 hole. Yes we need to sign pitching, but we are not going to sign 4 aces. Think reality people.
I'd be ok with it. If healthy he makes the team better and a minor league deal is pretty low risk.
If he is healthy and it is a minor league invite, the Twins should jump all over it. Like him or not, he was consistent, competed hard and knows how to pitch. There is no way the Twins are filling the 4 open starting spots with free agents and trades. I'll take a healthy Pavano over most everything they threw out there at the end of last year.
NO NO NO NO NO!
The LAST thing we need is another #5-6 starter to go alon with DeVries, Walters, Deduno, Blackburn....who did I miss?
We have ONE #3-4 starter in Diamond. We have maybe...maybe a couple others, in Hendriks and Gibson, that MIGHT contribute at #4-5 levels this year.
We need two #2-3 starters, minmum. We can afford them, and we have trade chips. Anything short of that is failure, and everything outside of that is a waste of time. No more damn #4-5-6 guys. Jeez.
To me it makes sense if the Twins still go out and get 3 pitchers for next years rotation. I am ok with Pavano competing with DeVries, Dedunno, Hendriks, and Gibson for that last spot. I think the Twins will be better off with Gibson starting the season in AAA. and having depth for when a pitcher has an injury. Signing Pavano could give the Twins an out if they only get 2 pitchers though and that would be upsetting too me.
I think the Twins are looking for other options besides Pavano. There just doesn't seem to be much up-side in signing him. He could work out for another season but he seem washed up last year.