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There are a lot of question about the pitching staff going into this season. Will Liriano bounce back from last year? Will Baker stay healthy? Can Blackburn go back to his ole 4.00 ERA days? Can Pavano repeat his 2010 success? What will Marquis be able to do in the AL?
Which of these starters will have the best season in 2012?
Baker really pitched well when he was healthy last year, I see him as most likely to finish the year with a winning record and 150 innings. Hopefully Pavano and Blackburn will just eat innings, while Liriano will be his usual self. I think Marquis will cruise along with a bunch of 6 and 7 inning starts giving 3 to 5 runs per outing (5.0+ ERA) until he is eventually replaced in the rotation. This club will finish within 5 game plus or minus of .500 for the year. Baker is the most likely to be the only starter with a winning record. I hope Frankie catches fire, but I just don't see it happening.
I'd love to see an explanatory comment from whoever voted for Blackburn...
I went Baker, but I think Liriano is a defensible answer.
Baker for me... although if the Twins want to contend, they'll almost need it to be Liriano, right? (from the standpoint that he truly can be an Ace... Baker is close to that too when he's on.)
Liriano will have a year comparable to Johan Santana in 2006.
I was thinking the same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Parker
I chose Liriano mostly out of a gut feeling, though he certainly has the potential. Baker's consistency probably makes him the front runner.
I really hope Baker can stay healthy this year. In my mind, he truly has the skills and mentality to be that no. 1 starter we so desperately need.
I went with Baker. I wanted to go with Liriano, as he certainly still has the most upside, but I think it's just too hard to count on anything significant from him right now. I do think that Liriano pitching like he did in 2010 is almost as important to the Twins success this year as a healthy Mauer and Morneau.
Liriano - I can see him bouncing back and getting everyone on his side again, just to turn around an disappoint in 2013. Seems to be his M.O.
FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKKie all the way!
Also note this whimsical evidence that Frankie will have a good year: All of his good years--2006, 2008, and 2010--have been even numbered. This bodes well for 2012.
I had to go with Baker. Hopefully he and Liriano get ridiculous this year and really tear up batters.
Marquis and Pavano's seasons will really just depend on the infield and if they continue to create ground balls. They both have high GB rates (50.4% and 46.8% career rates respectively), so that should help create a lot of out if the infield is any good at all.
Blackburn really kind of falls into the same category as Marquis and Pavano really. If he creates ground balls at the same rate as last year (53.5%) and the infield is actually able to help him out this year, he might have a really good year.
I think Liriano could likely perform similarly to his 2010 season, as he's not going to be suffering from dead-arm. Baker, hopefully, will continue right where he left off last year, and I think he has a pretty good chance of that.
As for Blackburn, he could either get injured again and perform terribly, or he could be reasonably effective, like in the early 2011 season. If he doesn't have his control or command due to injury, he's just going to give up home runs and walk too many, like last year. I think that, with the use of his slider back, as well as a better changeup than in 2008 or 2009, he could be the least of the Twins' worries.
Pavano and Marquis might not look so great, though. While Liriano/Baker/Blackburn have upside this year compared to their last two seasons, I'm not too sure about the older two, but I'd err on the side of caution.
Baker! He just needs consistency from game to game but he has the ability to be the ace of this team! He needs to be Big Spot Scott EVERY START, EVERY PITCH! Looked like he was starting to get there last June and July but injuries screwed that up.
I went with Frankie, and Baker would fall to 3rd place on my list. I'd love to be wrong. I'd love to have him force the Twins to at least think about picking up that $9.5M option last year.
Where is spot for pitcher not listed? Maybe Twins/Terry Ryan make blockbuster deal,
Jason Marquis just tweeted " even my family will not vote for me :( "
I went with Liriano but Baker is a close 2nd for me.