The "Nobody Wants To Come Here" Theory

In their current condition, the Twins can be an appealing place for marginal players to come and get a chance to play.

How many places could Doumit and Carroll have gone last year and get as much playing time. I don't think anyone else was offering at starting SS opportunity. Doumit needed to go somewhere to DH. No one would want his defense as a primary catcher. Minnesota was a good fit.

How many teams do you think offered Willingham the third year? With his injury history and poor defense, it is hard to project that he would be a plus LF for three years. In this case, the Twins may have "overpaid" in years.

Free agent pitchers will see an opportunity in Minnesota to get plenty of opportunities to start. There is an opportunity to sign a guy like Bedard looking to turn around a career to a one year deal.

How do the sign a guy like Sanchez who can join almost any rotation? Why would he choose the Twins if the money is the same? I don't think anyone can objectively state that the Minnesota outlook for 2013, their defense, their coaching staff, their medical staff or local endorsement opportunities will trump other offers. The only way is to stand out is to offer more money or an additional year. Basic market dynamics.

No FA offers that are willing to overpay or match + terrible team = not an attractive destination.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Curt

The bigger question is "why the heck did my Scandinavian ancestors settle here?"

---

Because it was warmer here.

This sentiment is around because people generally loath themselves.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Brandon

The Twins are only a few pieces away from being a contender again. We already aquired a solid bullpen arm and will likely be able to get atleast one more for next season. If the Twins were able to sign Scott Baker and trade Span for a solid starting pitcher then We are real close to being ready to be competetive. So the arguement about a free agent wanting to be in a competetive environment will not hold at that point. We would be highly competetive with the addition of 1 more above average pitcher. Hopefully Terry Ryan strikes fast in these areas so we can be more attractive to FA pitchers.

---

and what color is the sky in your world?, even if the 1 player away was babe ruth and he pitched every 4th day , we still have too many holes..and which quality reliever did we aquire?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Brandon

The Twins are only a few pieces away from being a contender again. We already aquired a solid bullpen arm and will likely be able to get atleast one more for next season. If the Twins were able to sign Scott Baker and trade Span for a solid starting pitcher then We are real close to being ready to be competetive. So the arguement about a free agent wanting to be in a competetive environment will not hold at that point. We would be highly competetive with the addition of 1 more above average pitcher. Hopefully Terry Ryan strikes fast in these areas so we can be more attractive to FA pitchers.

---

and what color is the sky in your world?, even if the 1 player away was babe ruth and he pitched every 4th day , we still have too many holes..and which quality reliever did we aquire?

---

A few pieces is not one. Reread if you have the ability to the comment about resigning Baker and trading for a pitcher. In case you can't figure it out, Brandon thinks Roeneke is a quality pitcher. A slightly positive WAR makes him better than half the pitchers the Twins threw out there for the 4-5 man out of the bullpen.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by old nurse

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Brandon

The Twins are only a few pieces away from being a contender again. We already aquired a solid bullpen arm and will likely be able to get atleast one more for next season. If the Twins were able to sign Scott Baker and trade Span for a solid starting pitcher then We are real close to being ready to be competetive. So the arguement about a free agent wanting to be in a competetive environment will not hold at that point. We would be highly competetive with the addition of 1 more above average pitcher. Hopefully Terry Ryan strikes fast in these areas so we can be more attractive to FA pitchers.

---

and what color is the sky in your world?, even if the 1 player away was babe ruth and he pitched every 4th day , we still have too many holes..and which quality reliever did we aquire?

---

A few pieces is not one. Reread if you have the ability to the comment about resigning Baker and trading for a pitcher. In case you can't figure it out, Brandon thinks Roeneke is a quality pitcher. A slightly positive WAR makes him better than half the pitchers the Twins threw out there for the 4-5 man out of the bullpen.

---

sign baker trade for a starter and with the addition of 1 more above average pitcher....this is the 1 pitcher i was speaking of ,as for roenicke,
me thinks his whip will catch up to him sooner then later...

about the only free agents who truely wanted to come here are home town boys wanting to play closer to home before they retire...or retreads who want a chance to show they are ready for prime time not twinkie-time

I don't buy the "no one wants to come here" argument. Yes, if the Twins offered the same amount of money as NY, the player would go to NY. I doubt that's up for debate. 2 years ago, if the Twins offered the same amount of money as any other team, the player would have chosen the Twins over most teams in the league... but the key is "the same amount of money". Very rarely do you hear of players taking a pay cut (like Cliff Lee did a few years back) to go to a city because that's where he wanted to be. It happens, but it happens rarely. Most players will take the extra cash (especially given their short careers), so if MN is offering 12M and NY is offering 11, they'll take the extra mil. That happens all the time. Look at the Yankees. They don't lock up the stars simply because all the stars want to play there and take pay cuts to do so. They lock them up because they offer the most cash.

The bottom line is that if you want a guy, you have to be the highest bidder.

I have no clue where the "Nobody wants to come to MN" schtick comes from. Sounds like a Reusse bit.

If this was the NBA, then yes I would put some stock in that argument. In baseball, there are relatively less big dollar contracts to go around (again, relatively), so they usually aren't as picky. Younger players tend to follow the money (to stabilize their future). For older players, money can be lesser of a motivator. It could be family (Thome, Oswalt), location (Petitte, Grienke) or just the need to play somewhere (Giambi, Moyer).

Bottom line is for every FA, you work to determine their needs and wants, make your best offer, and negotiate. The Twins have a strong history of being a player-friendly environment. High priced FA don't come here because the Twins don't chase them to the extent other teams do. The are fairly agressive on the 2nd and 3rd tier FA, and that is what you see. They also don't throw big, long term, money at pitching, as the risk tends to be too high.

In free agency, you look at adding 1-2-3 players at the most each season. You may sign a few more as fringe/minor league free agents. You maybe add one rookie to the full-time roster, and in an average year, look at 3-4 other players that may be around for more than one season. And you might make a real trade or a simple exchange. What is the average team roster turnover, in reality....30% at the most? The Twins had an oddity last year, and probably again this year.

But in regard to this question about "why play here." Let me ask again, how many free agents are telling their agents to "check out an offer from Minnesota."

I do not buy it. Free agents go where the money and playing time are. I have always thought this was some kind of excuse for fans, or an inferiority complex.

During the Metrodome era it provided a convenient excuse that wasn't "we don't want to spend the money". Though some of those teams in the 'Dome were pretty good and I'd guess that they could have signed some more and better free agents if the Twins had put some more money into the team. Until two years ago the Twins weren't any less attractive of a destination than Chicago or Detroit.

Quote:

---

The "Nobody Wants To Come Here" Theory

Where does the "Twins Must Overpay" theory (or myth) come from?

---

Which of these two theories do you want to discuss?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by powrwrap

Quote:

---

The "Nobody Wants To Come Here" Theory

Where does the "Twins Must Overpay" theory (or myth) come from?

---

Which of these two theories do you want to discuss?

---

I think he means the one springs from the other - Minnesota is not an attractive landing spot for free agents, so in order to bring them in the Twins would have to offer more money than other teams.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by boom boom

in order to bring in free agents, teams have to offer more money than anyone else.

---

fify.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by boom boom

in order to bring in free agents, teams have to offer more money than anyone else.

---

fify.

---

Well yeah, obvy.

But that gets away from the topic. When a free agent is considering destinations, does Minnesota have some kind of negative cachet that would have to be mitigated by more guaranteed money/years/both? If you're Dan Haren, would you take 1 million less to sign with the Yankees than with the Twins?

I think it probably bleeds over from basketball especially (being a winter sport). And some people don't take the time to consider differences in sports, once they hear "Nobody wants to go to Minnesota" in regards to one sport, they just assume it applies to other sports. I also think Minnesota's reputation for not spending that last little bit to make the play for a championship, while not completely accurate, is out there. Meaning if your choices are Minnesota and Detroit, where most other factors are going to be similar (market size, climate), you're going to think that Detroit is the team more likely to make the move at the deadline to put the team over the top. There's also no getting around the fact that the Twins have been putrid two years in a row. Even if you don't subscribe to any other factors, most people facing equal opportunities in all factors except "chance to win" are going to rank Minnesota low on that factor right now. Also, what are state income taxes considered to be for Minnesota? I should know, but I have nothing more than a gut feeling that for some reason tells me they're a little on the high side.

Without being able to listen to the thoughts of every free agent on the market, you're never going to definitively answer that question, but it's not too far-fetched to believe some FA's are going to need a little extra financial incentive to go to Minnesota versus somewhere else. Not all, but some.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

Well yeah, obvy.

But that gets away from the topic. When a free agent is considering destinations, does Minnesota have some kind of negative cachet that would have to be mitigated by more guaranteed money/years/both? If you're Dan Haren, would you take 1 million less to sign with the Yankees than with the Twins?

---

Probably not. A million dollars is a lot of money and pitching in NY brings with it an incredible pressure to perform. If I'm 37 years old and trying to win a ring, yeah, that might swing my vote to NY. If I'm 32 and looking at a 3 year deal, I take the money and run. If I'm looking for a one-year "make good" contract that will bring me a multi-year payday the following season, I look at the teams who will guarantee me playing time... Which probably isn't going to be the Yankees.

Blame it on Big Papi....turning a power hitter into a singles and doubles hitter. Blame it on Torii Hunter....refusing to overpay for a CF who was about to be a corner OF...... Blame it on Johan Santana.....a small framed workhorse who's career was about to be decimated by forseeable injuries. Blame it on Nathan....a closer who can't close in the playoffs. Blame it on Cuddy and Kubel.......well, one took more money and one wasn't offered a contract. Top tier FA's won't sign with the Twins because the Twins won't go all in after them. And probably rightly so. Except for defense, Willingham, Cuddy, Kubel and Hunter are about the same player, but one earned $18M while the others earned $8M or less. Papi is an injury plagued 1B/DH, wait, we have one of those. Santana, oh my could you imagine the backlash on these boards if the team had kept Santana and gotten 46 wins for $100M over 5 years with 2 more years and $50M to go. The posters on here might even leave Mauer alone if the team still had that contract. The team paid Nathan and had a viable replacement already on the team, they just didn't know it (Perkins). The one thing I think the team shies away from is Boras clients, and he usually represents the big name guys. Just sayin'!