Should Twins Be Willing To Part With A Draft Pick For A Free Agent?

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

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Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

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haren is off the market is now a chicago cub

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Originally Posted by johnnydakota

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Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

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haren is off the market is now a chicago cub

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i can see tomarrows mlb rumors , the minnesota twins were in on haren heavy till the angels wouldnt pick up all of dans 2013 salary and throw in trout for nick blackburn , terry will be quoted as saying he cant understand why he couldnt make the deal? but hey kevin corriea and liriano are still out there

I think that the Twins are better of to try to get good pitchers through trades. The free agent market is overpriced esp. with the loss of draft picks

Dempster is a bad example since he was traded midseason.

If the pitcher is worth multiple years and 10+M/yr then he's worth a second round pick.

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

Haren is a free agent.

Certainly not.

Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Michael Bourn
OF Nick Swisher
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RH RP Rafael Soriano
RHP Kyle Lohse
OF BJ Upton
1B Adam Laroche

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Michael Bourn
OF Nick Swisher
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RH RP Rafael Soriano
RHP Kyle Lohse
OF BJ Upton
1B Adam Laroche

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

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grienke was given a offer?

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Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

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I would say yes but only if there was some other trade of Span or Morneau or someone that brought back at least one good+ prospect back. In a vacuum? No.

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Originally Posted by johnnydakota

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Michael Bourn
OF Nick Swisher
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RH RP Rafael Soriano
RHP Kyle Lohse
OF BJ Upton
1B Adam Laroche

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

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grienke was given a offer?

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No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

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Originally Posted by JP3700

No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

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I'm surprised that neither Marcum and Jackson got offers (possibly a few others). Greinke, Dempster and Sanchez were traded during the season so they don't qualify. I think Kuroda almost to go back to the Yankees due to the offer since it doesn't make sense to part with a 1st rd pick (the best 20 teams) to sign him.

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Originally Posted by thrylos98

I think that the Twins are better of to try to get good pitchers through trades. The free agent market is overpriced esp. with the loss of draft picks

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My thoughts exactly...

I don't think the Twins will be competing for a WS championship in the next 2 seasons, so I think the smart move is to say no to the high dollar free agents that would cost a draft pick in return. Play for the long haul, and when (hopefully) our propspects in the mid-low levels of the system start to perform, then you go out and add a piece here or there and pay the price, be in draft picks or prospects, to put the team in contention for a WS title.

-Paul
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Follow me, @BaseballPirate, on Twitter
www.PuckettsPond.com

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

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Twins have had a decent run of sucess with 2nd round picks, believe it or not. From 01-09 Baker, Benson, Crain, Slowey and Swarzak all made at least an appearance in the majors, the Twins traded 3 other 2nd rounders (Bullock, Tyler and Landergraf) for Mlers Diamond, Cabrera and Casilla.

Looking at the list of QO that Seth posted, I don't think we'll lose a 2nd rounder. Obviously, I'd get rid of one for Hamilton but the Twins aren't signing him.

Well, I'm a little slow on the new CBA rules, obviously. I didn't realize that midseason trades could not get a qualifying offer. That's an interesing twist. I can see an imminent free agent with a no-trade clause waiving it so he doesn't get a qualifying offer in his offseason. I wouldn't be shocked if that's why Dempster ultimately agreed to a trade.

Seth is right. This doesn't really affect the Twins this year. That's really good news.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

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The odds of a second round pick making it are far higher than you'd think. A good class will net you 2 or 3 decent major leaguers, and most of those guys will come from the top 5 picks, so I wouldn't throw one away lightly. I do think that if the Twins were a player or two away from a realistic shot at the series, then yes, by all means sacrifice one. But this team has some significant rebuilding and will need a decent dose of luck to make the playoffs next year, so no, I wouldn't give away a 2nd rounder for that.

Considering the Twins threw away a draft pick for Capps, nothing would surprise me. That being said, I would find it hard to believe the Twins would give up that high of a pick for Lohse or Swisher (nobody else is really up their alley cost or position wise).

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

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Twins have had a decent run of sucess with 2nd round picks, believe it or not. From 01-09 Baker, Benson, Crain, Slowey and Swarzak all made at least an appearance in the majors, the Twins traded 3 other 2nd rounders (Bullock, Tyler and Landergraf) for Mlers Diamond, Cabrera and Casilla.

Looking at the list of QO that Seth posted, I don't think we'll lose a 2nd rounder. Obviously, I'd get rid of one for Hamilton but the Twins aren't signing him.

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Of 56 picks, 6 have a career WAR over 10. Most recent picks still have a lot of time to get there. Based on Twins picks, I would think it is less than a 25% chance that a second round pick will make a significant contribution. Complete list at

http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...t_type=junreg&