Why I have hope for the Twins in 2012

I hope this isn't an abuse of this forum -- I stand to gain very little, and only indirectly, from more pageviews on this -- but I thought people might be interested in my (free) article over at Baseball Prospectus today on why I think people are giving up on the Twins too readily, and why I still hold out some hope for 2012. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=16164

When people have asked me, I've been giving my outlook in percentages. I think there's about a 40-50% chance that they're very bad again (let's say 50), and a 35% or so chance that they're improved and healthier enough to get back to mediocre, somewhere within a few of .500. But, that leaves a 15% chance that everyone is healthy, everything clicks back into place, and they're actually really good again--maybe not good enough to beat the Tigers, but enough to keep it interesting. And I think people are overlooking that chance and ignoring just how much we don't know about all those injuries and how they're likely to play into 2012.

Solid analysis Bill. Thanks for sharing.

Analysts not analyzing and giving away doubles like they are BB&B coupons - excellent!

Thank you for a the analysis - I agree with much of it. And you're right, it is spring lets imagine that one or two of those points will come to fruition.

Good post, Bill.
A few weeks ago, I posted on my blog giving them about a 10% chance of winning the division. Your analysis was much better, but basically I agree that it's going to take that rare combination of Mauer, Morneau and Liriano all being healthy and playing well in order for that possibility to materialize.

Great stuff, Bill! Thank you for sharing the link... we encourage it!

I just think this season is truly unpredictable. So while I appreciate your (guarded) optimism, I prefer not to get my hopes up. I'd much rather be pleasantly surprised.

I can't imagine Offense being part of the problem getting to the playoffs this season. If there's a bottom to mediocre finish, it will be because of the question marks surrounding pitching. Pavano and Liriano would both need performances similar to 2010 in order for the rest to fill in the gaps. I actually feel good about the way the Bullpen is coming together. I'm optimistic that the team will finish somewhere in the 80's with Wins and Losses.

Interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing it.