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Sorry to steal your idea, Spirit, but I was having too much fun reading the Liriano posts, and thought I would throw another log on the fire (even though it isn't Hot Stove time).
So, what are people's thoughts on signing Carl Pavano to a $2-3 million contract with incentives for innings pitched?
I think if he can prove his shoulder is healthy, I think he could be a better innings-eater than Marquis was this year.
"Twins Will Seek Affordable Pitchers"
I think Pavano will meet the first criteria, affordability, but will likely fail to meet the secondary criteria, being a pitcher. For all of 2012, he was unable to throw a baseball with enough velocity to be a MLB pitcher. It seems unlikely he'll get younger in 2013.
Will he be healthier? Can't say for sure, but his value is as a potential "innings eater." He has 14 seasons under his belt as an MLB pitcher, and has pitched at least 140 innings in 5 of those seasons. Not great odds.
My conclusion-
we were lucky to get 2.5 decent seasons out him. He deserves recognition for an effective and gutty run with the Twins after a streak of injuries that would've forced most men into early retirement. Let's save what remains of his arm for throwing batting practice on a coaching staff.
Samuel Deduno and Cole De Vries were better innings-eaters than Marquis, and they only cost the league minimum.Quote:
Originally Posted by TRex
I think Pavano is cooked. 87-mph fastballs just won't get it done.
Said they would resign him late this summer & got destroyed on here. As offseason starts, i think many people see they will seriously explore this option. If they do, its gotta be incentive laden & hopefully a minor league deal so we dont lose a 40 man spot.....esp w/ out of option players they're currently carrying
All things considered, id rather have Carl than another Marquis or any Deduno/Walters/Vasquez type. Start the season w/him and he can be released if hes not pitching well when they call up Gibson in June....
Why? If they are trying to compete, no. If they are trying to get by, and deal anyone with value that is older, sure.
He will have value IF his shoulder heals and he can again crack 90 with consistency. This will have to be determined before his value is determined.
If I was Carl Pavano, I'd be retiring this offseason. He's accomplished quite a bit in his career, made a ton of money, and has his World Series ring with the '03 Marlins. Hanging on for another season, signing on with a poor team for a small incentive-laden contract doesn't seem like it makes much sense from his perspective.
I'd rather take a flyer on De Vries/Deduno than Pavano. Carl has almost zero upside at this point. There is no reason to throw bad money at him.
The only way I'd bring in Pavano is if he signs a minor league deal, or a deal similar to Zumaya last year (1 mil base, but only owed like 30% of it if he is cut prior to opening day)
I mean, if Pavano was back to 100% healthy and could replicate his 2010/2011 production for us it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have him at the back of the rotation. But I want nothing to do with giving him 2-3 mil guaranteed.
Totally agree, we need to bring in a few bargain bin guys, on minor league deals. If one pans out and we end up puting him on the 40 man roster, we get a good pitcher. If they fizzle out, we can cut them or send them to Rochester to be called upon when needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave
In all seriousness Jason Marquis, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and Livan Hernandez have a higher probability of being decent pitchers in 2013 than Pavano. Pavano is old and hurt. He should just hang them up.
Are you sure you understand what that word means? I think the word you were looking for was hyperbole.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
Nope. Marquis is younger and had a better season that Pavano could dream of, once he left AndyNGardy. The other 3 are about at the same level of decrepidness but they are not hurt. Seriously :)Quote:
Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDaveAre you sure you understand what that word means? I think the word you were looking for was hyperbole.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
Yeah, obviously "Andy n Gardy" were to blame for Marquis' performance. After all, he shut down the NL to the tune of a 90 ERA+ while pitching in what might be the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB and racked up an ERA+ of around 85 in the second half.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
Dominating stuff.
Pass. At this point any of the AAA pitchers the twins called up last year have more upside and cost less.
Agree with the pass. Twins need to find out what they have and sign some decent FA pitchers. Another 90+ loss season the the spiral will have begone to empty out Target field of fans. WOW factor is what is needed.
I would sign him in a heartbeat......but only if he will accept a minor league assignment. I think Carl's asset value at this point is probably best used to spot start (in situations like: [break this case in case of devastating pitcher injury emergency]. What I am more interested in is his ability to work with younger pitchers to develop their pitching skill (a la Scott Diamond ). Carl can work with the young guys, and should his arm magically rejuvinate...mores the good to us. Do I think he would take this kind of deal....no [+1 Glanzer], but I can dream, right?
You know this team is in awful shape when people are dreaming about Carl Pavano.Quote:
Originally Posted by LimestoneBaggy
Keep in mind that the three seasons before last year Pavano was as healthy as can be, in fact he averaged 214 IP a season and a 4.36 ERA, now that isn't going to blow anyone away, but a 4.00-4.50 ERA with 210+ IP is certainly valuable. If you can get him on a Zumaya type deal(1 year, 1 mil, can be reduced to 300k if cut before opening day. +500k incentives for 175 IP) I think you have to roll the dice, again, hes not likely going to give you a 3.50-3.75 ERA, but he can at least eat a ton of innings if healthy and on a team that very well could be starting 3-4 rookies/2nd year guys at SP that could be very important. He is fact getting older, but in 2013 he will be 37 so it isn't beyond the realm of possibilities that he returns from his injury.
I'm not advocating signing Liriano+Baker+Pavano, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to think about bringing in 1 or 2 of those guys, then trying to pick up a top talent or two on the FA market or via trade.
Liriano and Baker have considerable upside to them. It makes sense to pursue both for the right price.Quote:
Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave
Pavano has almost zero upside at this point.