Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'

TRyan said this on 1500ESPN this morning but will 'monitor the big names'. No surprise here, so who are the affordable pitchers that the Twins type thinking will go after.

Pitt's FA Kevin Correia WILL be one they will at least pursue
32 yr old RH made 3m last yr
Over last 4 yrs (w/SD & Pitt each 2yrs)
46W (Twins value the old style stats) 43L 120gms 113starts
668IP (ave 168) 697hits 4.51 NL ERA 423k(5.7/9) 213bb(2.9/9) 90.5mph FB... -.0.7 3 yr WAR
one all star appearance in 2011
Holds runners well 31/53 successful (41.5% caught stealing)
Twins type of guy......yaaaaayyyyy!!!!!
Who else

laugh all ya want but they will also target Kevin Millwood as this yrs Marquis, Ortiz, Hernandez, Ponson type.
The soon to be 38yr old played for a million last yr in SEA.
28 starts in SEA in 12'
6W 12L 161IP 168hits 4.25ERA 107K (6k/9) 56bb (3.1bb/9) 1.39whip
His splits were even outside of Safeco.....4.34ERA on road
His 90.2mph fastaball is right at his 90.7 career mark.
He will definately help sell some season tix but will be a guy they target

DId say the 'bullpen needs too add some people too', so at least they have noticed that also!! Hello resigning Matt Capps

My other 'sleeper' pitcher who MN will look at is another PITT hurler who was released, Erik Bedard.
On the surface, he didnt seem to have that bad a year
24starts 7W 14L 5.01ERA 125.2IP 129hits (.263BAA) 118K (8.5k/9) 56bb (4bb/9)

He was a victim of some horrible luck & only a few bad games as I looked at his game logs.
April
1W 4L in 5 starts 2.48ERA (no more than 2ER in any start...PITT scored 3runs in 4 losses) 29IP 29hits 26k 12bb
May
2W 1L in 5 starts 3.91ERA (one start was 1IP due to rain delay) 23IP 19h 25k 10bb
June
1W 3L in 5 starts 6.58ERA (one start 6/14 7ER in 3.1IP....4.77ERA in other 4) 26IP 30h 21K 12bb
July
1W 4L in 5 starts 6.49ERA (8er in 4.1IP in last start of month....4.50ERA in other 4) 26.1IP 29h 28k 13bb
AUG
2W 2L in 4 starts 5.91ERA (first 2 starts 12IP 7h 3er 11K 4bb....last 2 9.1IP 15h 11er 7k 5bb)

20 starts 108.2IP 99h 44er 3.64ERA 103K 47bb
4 bad starts 17IP 30h 26er 13.76ERA 15k 9bb

His 89.4mph fastball was down from 11's 90.8 but he kept up a great K rate with his curveball
He made 4.5m last yr but after bein released Aug 28, could be a nice bargain which is what Terry Ryan is looking for

Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

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Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

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Affordable from Terry Ryan (at least to me....based on the teams history) means players who'll play for a 1 year deal, maybe 2 under the right circumstances
Marcum/Jackson are gonna want a 3 yr deal minumum.....Twins have NEVER signed a FA pitcher with that many years & have NEVER traded for a pitcher with that many years remaining (not counting pre-FA pitchers).
They are the cheapest team in baseball that has a 90m+ payroll.....this will continue this year.
As good as FA went last offseason, nobody got a big deal. They went cheap, but it worked out for the most part

Affordable, to me, means they pay what they feel they're worth. Which is bad news if you think they'll sign a top-end pitcher - they always get overpayed.

I don't read much into soundbites, especially when they're basically non-statements like this.

To the extent he's saying anything here, it's only that he's not going to pay ace money for a #3 starter.

Twins will not overpay for pitching. That is why they will end up trading if the deal is right. Problem is going to be everyone is going to overvalue their major league ready pitching, because pitching is a hard item to find. Depends on whether the Twins can find trade partners early, because most of the pitching will be bought in the first two weeks of FA action and many big market teams will be looking.TR has his work cut out for him

The point that Ryan likely only wants 1-year deals is a good one. That seems to be his MO. Although, given how depleted the organization is with pitching, it isn't clear that a multi-year deal would be the worst idea.

I think in the GM Handbook, we have Marcum likely accepting a one-year deal. His health is a big question mark, so I could see him seeking out a make good deal. It might be expensive, but I can't see anyone ponying up really big bucks for him in a multi-year deal this year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by John Bonnes

I the GM Handbook.

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Ah yes, there is where we will find the many answers for who are affordable pitchers

penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...

Another reason the twins probably won't sign any big money FA's: Josh Willingham was the biggest FA contract they ever inked. (obviously not including extending their own).

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Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

My other 'sleeper' pitcher who MN will look at is another PITT hurler who was released, Erik Bedard.
On the surface, he didnt seem to have that bad a year
24starts 7W 14L 5.01ERA 125.2IP 129hits (.263BAA) 118K (8.5k/9) 56bb (4bb/9)

He was a victim of some horrible luck & only a few bad games as I looked at his game logs.
April
1W 4L in 5 starts 2.48ERA (no more than 2ER in any start...PITT scored 3runs in 4 losses) 29IP 29hits 26k 12bb
May
2W 1L in 5 starts 3.91ERA (one start was 1IP due to rain delay) 23IP 19h 25k 10bb
June
1W 3L in 5 starts 6.58ERA (one start 6/14 7ER in 3.1IP....4.77ERA in other 4) 26IP 30h 21K 12bb
July
1W 4L in 5 starts 6.49ERA (8er in 4.1IP in last start of month....4.50ERA in other 4) 26.1IP 29h 28k 13bb
AUG
2W 2L in 4 starts 5.91ERA (first 2 starts 12IP 7h 3er 11K 4bb....last 2 9.1IP 15h 11er 7k 5bb)

20 starts 108.2IP 99h 44er 3.64ERA 103K 47bb
4 bad starts 17IP 30h 26er 13.76ERA 15k 9bb

His 89.4mph fastball was down from 11's 90.8 but he kept up a great K rate with his curveball
He made 4.5m last yr but after bein released Aug 28, could be a nice bargain which is what Terry Ryan is looking for

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Looks like a good pitcher to target but not necessarily a twins type pitcher. Any reason you think the twins will go after him or are you just saying they should?

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Originally Posted by thrylos98

penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...

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penny pinching might make this a 100 loss team.
spending like a crazy man might make this an 85 loss team

Quote:

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Originally Posted by John Bonnes

The point that Ryan likely only wants 1-year deals is a good one. That seems to be his MO. Although, given how depleted the organization is with pitching, it isn't clear that a multi-year deal would be the worst idea.

I think in the GM Handbook, we have Marcum likely accepting a one-year deal. His health is a big question mark, so I could see him seeking out a make good deal. It might be expensive, but I can't see anyone ponying up really big bucks for him in a multi-year deal this year.

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That's strange, because he was back at the end of the year and was good again. That would be a BIG improvement if it was a one-year deal.

Can we stop using Ryan's track record as an indicator of future moves? The dude had a $40m or lower payroll for many of those years. The early 2000s Metrodome Twins have very, very little to do with the 2013 Target Field Twins.

Ryan didn't have much money last season but he used it pretty smartly to pick up several players that helped the team enormously. There is no reason to expect him to do anything different this offseason when he has more money to play with and acquire players that aren't awful.

They lost over 90 games, not sure who helped the team tremendously. Ryan is cheap, there is no evidence to the contrary. Until he actually does something different, I see no reason to expect something different.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

They lost over 90 games, not sure who helped the team tremendously. Ryan is cheap, there is no evidence to the contrary. Until he actually does something different, I see no reason to expect something different.

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Yes, Ryan is cheap.

But there is a difference between "scraping the bottom of the barrel" and "cheap". Cheap is fine, scraping the barrel is not. Ryan spent his last term as GM scraping the barrel because he had no other choice. Last season, he picked up several guys who were reasonably priced (not necessarily cheap but not expensive either) and most of them worked out very well for the team. Now that he has more money to spend, why do so many think he'll balk at spending a few dollars to pick up a pitcher that isn't awful? If he was open to signing Willingham last offseason, there is no reason to think he won't do the same for a decent pitcher.

Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?

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Originally Posted by SpantheMan

Another reason the twins probably won't sign any big money FA's: Josh Willingham was the biggest FA contract they ever inked. (obviously not including extending their own).

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That is a key point, but it could be a key point for each side. The obvious point is that the Twins don't usually spend much money. The less obvious point is that last year, Terry Ryan was willing to go out of his previous comfort zone to fill a hole that needed filling. He's not going to go nuts, but he knows he needs pitching and he now has a record of going a little further than before (and with great results). I'd be a little surprised if Ryan signed a pitcher to a 3 year, $21-30 million deal, but I wouldn't be shocked.

That said, I expect Ryan will be hoping to sign guys to one year deals with an option/buyout for the next year, or maybe a 2 year deal for the right guy. It's not like the Twins lack of pitching depth is going to magically solve itself in 2014, and odds are the Twins aren't going to be able stockpile enough arms to be favorites in 2013 anyway. If you find a guy you like, try to get him to stick around a few years.

There are a few high-potential guys out there with some question marks that you could probably get on a one year deal with an option. Baker is the obvious one. Brandon McCarthy is a good starter if he's healthy, but isn't going to get a big guarantee. Ervin Santana had enough struggles that the Angels aren't even thinking about picking up his $12 million option. He's still a very good pitcher, and might want a one year deal to re-establish himself (in spacious Target Field). Jorge De La Rosa, Marcum, and a few other guys fit the bill too.

They aren't going to build a rock solid rotation that way, but they'll give themselves a chance. I'd absolutely expect Ryan to have enough money to spend that he's not going to just give out three $3-5 million deals to uninspiring starters and see what happens.

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Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?

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They probably won't. Ryan got a good deal on Willingham. Why are you so adamant that he won't pay market value for a pitcher as he did for Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll last season? Add $6m over three years to Willingham's deal and you're suddenly in the market for a mid-range pitcher (aka. roughly the money Pavano made last season). Ryan showed that he's willing to go after a guy if he thinks the team will get value from the player. He did it last season and there's no reason to think he won't do it again because he has more money this offseason... well, he should have more, anyway.

The only basis you have to assume that Ryan will only pursue $3m pitchers is that he often did so when the Twins' payroll was half what it is today. It's not solid ground on which to stand, as the circumstances are vastly different today than they were in 2004.