Thread: Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

Terry Ryan will make a 3yr 30m offer to Mark Buehrle when he says he wont consider anything under 4 yrs. They'll offer 5yrs 100m to Johan Santana when he says he wont take less than 7 yrs. Same with Torri Hunter...offering 3yrs when he wanted 5
MN is about making just low enough of an offer to be in the arguement, but not really get serious with the player. Funny that they think that fans actuallly buy any of that

Mark Buerhle is going to be paid $19m as a 36 year old in 2015. Santana has turned mediocre for the Mets while making ~$23m a season.

The Twins put out the offers but thankfully, they were smart enough to keep those offers within reason. Pitching contracts that go over $50m in total rarely (almost never) work out for the team that "wins" the bidding.

better not to have quality pitching at all than to take a chance on spending what the market will bare for quality pitching I suppose...you know, just in case the pitcher doesn't work out. Cause, I'm sorry, they don't draft and develop quality pitching and getting a quality pitcher in trade is harder and harder without quality pieces to do it...especially when you overvalue the few quality trade pieces you do have...

[QUOTE=PopRiveter;58552][QUOTE=Kobs;58343]

Originally Posted by old nurse

Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

[QUOTE=old nurse;58568][QUOTE=PopRiveter;58552]

Originally Posted by Kobs

Originally Posted by old nurse

Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

Joe Mays had one good season out of six with us. Silva pitched one very good year with us, two okay ones and a really bad one. Santana wasn't a FA signing or a trade, he was a rule 5 pick up. And Lohse wasn't that good with us either. He also failed to sign Santana early enough to avoid Smith having to trade him after the '07 season...

The puck has it correct.....

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

It would be nice to operate with an unlimited checkbook, the Yankess did that for many years. Most FA pitchers do not work out well. We still need a bridge to the next set of pitchers coming up. This will be both FA and trades. TR just has to get it right. That is not easy.

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

Teams can go from losing seasons to make the playoffs in one season. Both the Twins and Braves did it in 1991 and the Twins almost did it again in 2001. The Twins went from 74 wins to 95 wins from 1990 and 1991 and from 69 wins to 85 wins from 2000-2001 (finishing 2nd in the division). The Braves went from 64 wins to 94 wins in 1991.

Signing one player for Huge money is probably a bad idea. Signing 2 legit starting pitchers for 12 to 15 million a year for 4 or 5 years, that is the market rate. I will ask again, if you do not want to do that, how is the team competitive in the next three years?

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Signing one player for Huge money is probably a bad idea. Signing 2 legit starting pitchers for 12 to 15 million a year for 4 or 5 years, that is the market rate. I will ask again, if you do not want to do that, how is the team competitive in the next three years?

I'll ask you how devastating it would be to have 23M locked up in Mauer and 24-30M locked up in what ended up being two mediocre pitchers. History says that you probably aren't even getting two legit starting pitchers for 12-15M/yr.

Here is a list of FA starters since the 2006 offseason that fit your criteria (>3 yrs, 12+M/yr). There are 2 studs (well paid), 2 too early to tell, 2 alright pitchers (Dempster and Lilly) and a long list of brutal mistakes. Your proposal could be flushing 120-150M down the toilet and significantly extend any rebuilding that the Twins need to do. I do not like the prospect of being bad next year but you rebuild through the farm and supplement with FA. Spending recklessly in FA leads to becoming the Mets and Cubs and that is a very accurate comparison. They loaded their teams with expensive declining veterans and they sucked.

Buehrle 4/58
Wilson 5/75
Lee 5/120
lackey 5/82.5
Ollie Perez 3/36
Lowe 4/60
CC fort knox
Burnett 5/82.5
Dempster 4/52
Silva 4/48
Zito - 7/126
Suppan 4/42
Lilly 4/40
Meche 5/55
Schmidt - 3/47

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

Teams can go from losing seasons to make the playoffs in one season. Both the Twins and Braves did it in 1991 and the Twins almost did it again in 2001. The Twins went from 74 wins to 95 wins from 1990 and 1991 and from 69 wins to 85 wins from 2000-2001 (finishing 2nd in the division). The Braves went from 64 wins to 94 wins in 1991.

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

[QUOTE=kab21;58731]

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

Originally Posted by kab21

you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

I think his point of not trading players at their peak value is valid. We didn't do it with Hunter, we haven't, as of yet, done it with Willingham. We also didn't do it with Cuddyer...and that was a must do that we failed to do.

If we're going to build a pitching staff, hard decisions need to be made....and the way the new collective bargaining agreement is worded, it may force us to do that.

As far as our rotation goes, it's been okay once in the last 4 seasons, bad the other other three. This isn't a one year thing, it's been broken for awhile

If hicks and arcia replace span and Willingham in the next year or two, you free up another 12 million in salary. Why not spend that on pitching? Free agency cannot fix all your woes, agreed. Waiting 4 years for this system to be fixed cannot either.

I still do mot understand the long term risk point. You will have minimum wage guys at two outfield positions, and probably first base.....where will all the money go if not to free agents?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

As far as our rotation goes, it's been okay once in the last 4 seasons, bad the other other three. This isn't a one year thing, it's been broken for awhile

The rotation has been very solid except for one season until the disaster happened this year. you can say that it was obvious that the rotation looked weak going into 2011 but Liriano was coming off of a borderline great season and they had what should have been 3 solid #3's (plus Duensing and that crappy guy) behind him.
'03 - 20th
'04 - 4th
'05 - 9th
'06 - 9th
'07 - 10th
'08 - 15th - this is the first season w/o Johan
'09 - 26th
'10 - 16th - things looked pretty good going into 2011 unless you use hindsight

Where is that minor league depth other than the outfield? When is the next pitcher ready after Gibson? Middle infielder? Third baseman? Catcher? This is not a one year trend.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

If hicks and arcia replace span and Willingham in the next year or two, you free up another 12 million in salary. Why not spend that on pitching? Free agency cannot fix all your woes, agreed. Waiting 4 years for this system to be fixed cannot either.

I still do mot understand the long term risk point. You will have minimum wage guys at two outfield positions, and probably first base.....where will all the money go if not to free agents?

Review this if you don't understand the long term risk. the risk isn't that you have 4.00 ERA pitchers earning too much money. The risk (pretty likely) is that you have multiple Blackburn level pitchers earning 12-15M/yr for a long time.

Buehrle 4/58
Wilson 5/75
Lee 5/120
lackey 5/82.5
Ollie Perez 3/36
Lowe 4/60
CC fort knox
Burnett 5/82.5
Dempster 4/52
Silva 4/48
Zito - 7/126
Suppan 4/42
Lilly 4/40
Meche 5/55
Schmidt - 3/47

What are those stats?