Thread: Ryan removes "Interim" label from his title

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by twinswon1991

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I review the drafts pretty darn closely and I would say the Twins are bottom 5 in MLB over the last 6-8 years. Do not forget that TR and his good ole boys have been doing the scouting/drafting over that time so you cannot blame BS.

If you use Plouffe, Parmelee and Revere as examples of potential prospects I would say that is worse than horrific. These 3 guys are replacement level at best and if you follow the BP or Klaw chats you will find that scouts agree that Plouffe and Parmelee will never make it in the bigs as regulars. I am not as critical as BP and Klaw on Revere because I think he can be a decent platoon or 4th OF on a competitive team.

The Twins desparately need a fresh prospective in the FO. What TR did in the 90's was great but the game and scouting has changed a lot since then.

I'm going to contend that this is a bunch of garbage. Every team has a rough stretch in the draft and you can't pick out one team that has been successful to say otherwise. Kobs is absolutely right that the Twins can't have another draft stretch like 04-08 but that horrific stretch is still producing big league regulars which some teams haven't even been able to do. They don't have a lot of arms in the system still but overall the Twins have a very strong farm system and Ryan was part of that effort even if he wasn't GM.

I think you're also exaggerating when you say 6-8 years. there are 4-5 yrs that are unimpressive but if you want to go further than that then you are going to need to include drafts that featured Hicks and Gibson or drafts that featured Baker, Span and Mauer.

Replacement level at best? i call complete bull. Plouffe just hit 24 HR's in 2/3's of season that included an injured hand. Even if you call this season his best that is WAY ABOVE replacement level. Parmelee was just named the 5th best int'l league prospect by BA. Neither of these guys will be all stars but replacement level? try not to exaggerate.

Trevor Plouffe's WAR is 0.9 according to BR. That is the worst value- for either BR or Fangraphs- among 3B with more than 400 PAs (save one, Jordan Pachecho who played 3B part-time). So no, he is not a "WAY ABOVE" replacement level player. If you want to get excited about a RH-batting Kelly Johnson-potential level player, he might reach that level, still nothing to get too excited about if that's the best the Twins could do from 04-08. The jury is still out on Parmelee. Perhaps "replacement level" on the part of the poster was too harsh, but try not to exaggerate in the other direction when your premise for their chances is based more on hope than facts. Regarding your draft history summation, Baker, Span and Mauer is ancient history and Hicks and Gibson are still, to this point, also based more on hope than facts. I too have high hopes for both of them, but it IS more hope than it is confidence that it will pan out. You mentioned BA and your feeling that the Twins farm system was strong. BA has NO Twins org pitchers that are listed in their individual league rankings and of the 7 players mentioned by BA, Parmelee is the only one who is a certifiable infielder and that's at 1B (if and when Morneau is traded), which means the Twins only position of strength in their farm system is 6 OFs. Unacceptable for a team that wants to be competitive when this next round of potential stars reaches the big league starting lineup in 2014-15.

Originally Posted by jokin

Trevor Plouffe's WAR is 0.9 according to BR. That is the worst value- for either BR or Fangraphs- among 3B with more than 400 PAs (save one, Jordan Pachecho who played 3B part-time). So no, he is not a "WAY ABOVE" replacement level player. If you want to get excited about a RH-batting Kelly Johnson-potential level player, he might reach that level, still nothing to get too excited about if that's the best the Twins could do from 04-08. The jury is still out on Parmelee. Perhaps "replacement level" on the part of the poster was too harsh, but try not to exaggerate in the other direction when your premise for their chances is based more on hope than facts. Regarding your draft history summation, Baker, Span and Mauer is ancient history and Hicks and Gibson are still, to this point, also based more on hope than facts. I too have high hopes for both of them, but it IS more hope than it is confidence that it will pan out. You mentioned BA and your feeling that the Twins farm system was strong. BA has NO Twins org pitchers that are listed in their individual league rankings and of the 7 players mentioned by BA, Parmelee is the only one who is a certifiable infielder and that's at 1B (if and when Morneau is traded), which means the Twins only position of strength in their farm system is 6 OFs. Unacceptable for a team that wants to be competitive when this next round of potential stars reaches the big league starting lineup in 2014-15.

A fair analysis. I'm not defending the Twins' drafts in saying they were good. I'd even concede that they weren't even mediocre. My only problem stems from the word "horrific". "Horrific" drafts don't return viable major leaguers to the roster. The Twins have done that over the past 6-8 years, even if those players aren't superstars.

Teams like the Astros and Cubs spent large portions of those years picking in the top 15 of baseball (and often the top 10) yet they haven't shown any ability to produce decent players from the draft. The Twins spent most years picking in the bottom 15 (and several times, the bottom 10) and are still producing viable major leaguers. That's why I take issue with the word "horrific". If you're winning your division every other year and rarely placing lower than third (in the AL, which bumps your draft position down one or two more notches most years), it's not surprising that they haven't lit the world on fire in the draft. Could they have done better? Absolutely, especially in the pitching market, which has churned out virtually no pitchers with any kind of longevity.

But to call their drafts horrific is an overstatement of the situation. They've done a decent job with position players and a really bad job with starters. All in all, once you consider their draft position, they've underperformed in the draft but I wouldn't call it horrific. That's my only point, really.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by jokin

Trevor Plouffe's WAR is 0.9 according to BR. That is the worst value- for either BR or Fangraphs- among 3B with more than 400 PAs (save one, Jordan Pachecho who played 3B part-time). So no, he is not a "WAY ABOVE" replacement level player. If you want to get excited about a RH-batting Kelly Johnson-potential level player, he might reach that level, still nothing to get too excited about if that's the best the Twins could do from 04-08. The jury is still out on Parmelee. Perhaps "replacement level" on the part of the poster was too harsh, but try not to exaggerate in the other direction when your premise for their chances is based more on hope than facts. Regarding your draft history summation, Baker, Span and Mauer is ancient history and Hicks and Gibson are still, to this point, also based more on hope than facts. I too have high hopes for both of them, but it IS more hope than it is confidence that it will pan out. You mentioned BA and your feeling that the Twins farm system was strong. BA has NO Twins org pitchers that are listed in their individual league rankings and of the 7 players mentioned by BA, Parmelee is the only one who is a certifiable infielder and that's at 1B (if and when Morneau is traded), which means the Twins only position of strength in their farm system is 6 OFs. Unacceptable for a team that wants to be competitive when this next round of potential stars reaches the big league starting lineup in 2014-15.

A fair analysis. I'm not defending the Twins' drafts in saying they were good. I'd even concede that they weren't even mediocre. My only problem stems from the word "horrific". "Horrific" drafts don't return viable major leaguers to the roster. The Twins have done that over the past 6-8 years, even if those players aren't superstars.

Teams like the Astros and Cubs spent large portions of those years picking in the top 15 of baseball (and often the top 10) yet they haven't shown any ability to produce decent players from the draft. The Twins spent most years picking in the bottom 15 (and several times, the bottom 10) and are still producing viable major leaguers. That's why I take issue with the word "horrific". If you're winning your division every other year and rarely placing lower than third (in the AL, which bumps your draft position down one or two more notches most years), it's not surprising that they haven't lit the world on fire in the draft. Could they have done better? Absolutely, especially in the pitching market, which has churned out virtually no pitchers with any kind of longevity.

But to call their drafts horrific is an overstatement of the situation. They've done a decent job with position players and a really bad job with starters. All in all, once you consider their draft position, they've underperformed in the draft but I wouldn't call it horrific. That's my only point, really.

Who are these viable Major Leaguers you speak of other than Span? And I don't mean viable major league players who are in the league only because they are in the Twin's org. Plouffe and Parmelee would not make the bigs in a differeent org. Revere would be a nice 4th outfielder or platoon guy on a competitive team. I think Horrific is very fair if not too nice. The failed SP picks may turn into useful bullpen arms ala Perk which salvages a minute amount of value although you can find effective RP's on the street.

If not Horrific, how about a fireable offense?

Originally Posted by twinswon1991

Plouffe and Parmelee would not make the bigs in a differeent org.

That is flat-out untrue. Both players OPSed over 1.000 in AAA. They're not superstars in the making by any stretch of the imagination but to say they wouldn't make the bigs in another org is just ridiculous.

If you OPS over 1.000 in AAA, you make the bigs. It's that bloody simple.

I still don't get why people say Revere is a "replacement level" player. He broke the twins rookie record in stolen bases last year over 117 games, and managed to steal 40 bases in only 124 games this year, fifth most in all of baseball. His discipline and bunting is improved, and he managed to tie for 16th in AVG in the AL, which is pretty good for a guy who hasn't played a full season at the major league level yet. He's the only non-pitcher to play more than 25 games this year for the twins and not record an error, and he consistently makes highlight reel plays that most other outfielders could not make.

And he is still only 24. So why is he still considered "replacement-level"?

Originally Posted by spideyo

I still don't get why people say Revere is a "replacement level" player. He broke the twins rookie record in stolen bases last year over 117 games, and managed to steal 40 bases in only 124 games this year, fifth most in all of baseball. His discipline and bunting is improved, and he managed to tie for 16th in AVG in the AL, which is pretty good for a guy who hasn't played a full season at the major league level yet. He's the only non-pitcher to play more than 25 games this year for the twins and not record an error, and he consistently makes highlight reel plays that most other outfielders could not make.

And he is still only 24. So why is he still considered "replacement-level"?

Failure to get on base. Until Revere can consistently hit above .300 and OBP at .340 or better, his value is marginal. Guys who are threats on the basepaths are only useful if they can get on base. Revere did that for half a season but the other half, he failed to get on base often enough to be a legitimate MLB starter.

But, as you said, he's only 24. There is room for improvement, I just don't think he'll be the player some Twins fans dream he will be.

Disclaimer: I'm almost always down on burners who can't hit it in the gaps and can't take a walk. Without those attributes, I don't care how fast they are, they almost never turn out to be much better than league average.

Most of you seem to have forgotten what the CBA was during the time under discussion. Signability was an issue and the 'advisors' could steer their prospective clients away from perceived cheap organizations but curculating large demand to scare off temas they did not like dealing with. This greatly handicaped the mid and small market teams on front line talent. This has all changed with the current CBA to level the playing field and now time will tell how this affects the balance in baseball. Twins in Ryan's first term where a small market francise in terms of payroll, now they are mid market, give TR a chance to operate on a level playing field. It is easy to call for change when hinesight is 20-20, it is much for difficult when you have to deal with the information given. TR is setting higher standards under the new structure and we will see if Gardy among others is still around if the Twins under perform next year. TR knows the cubboard was bare for pitchers if the orginal 5 this year did not work out. Much more of the shakeout was because of the lack of fundimentals throughout the orgainization. The was combined with the lack of situational hitting the Twins displayed all year. If this continues expect more heads to roll.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by spideyo

I still don't get why people say Revere is a "replacement level" player. He broke the twins rookie record in stolen bases last year over 117 games, and managed to steal 40 bases in only 124 games this year, fifth most in all of baseball. His discipline and bunting is improved, and he managed to tie for 16th in AVG in the AL, which is pretty good for a guy who hasn't played a full season at the major league level yet. He's the only non-pitcher to play more than 25 games this year for the twins and not record an error, and he consistently makes highlight reel plays that most other outfielders could not make.

And he is still only 24. So why is he still considered "replacement-level"?

Failure to get on base. Until Revere can consistently hit above .300 and OBP at .340 or better, his value is marginal. Guys who are threats on the basepaths are only useful if they can get on base. Revere did that for half a season but the other half, he failed to get on base often enough to be a legitimate MLB starter.

But, as you said, he's only 24. There is room for improvement, I just don't think he'll be the player some Twins fans dream he will be.

Disclaimer: I'm almost always down on burners who can't hit it in the gaps and can't take a walk. Without those attributes, I don't care how fast they are, they almost never turn out to be much better than league average.

The Cubs made the same thumbs down decision on future HOFer, Lou Brock, to their everlasting dread. Looking at the career stats, surprising numbers where Revere compares very favorably with Brock after their first two years. Both are about the same size (5'9"/5'10" & 170lbs.), both entered the bigs full-time at the same age, 23.

Here are Brock's stats in his first 5+ years:

...

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	WAR
1961	22	CHC	NL	4	12	11	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	.091	.167	.091	.258	-29	1	0	0	0	0	0	/8
1962	23	CHC	NL	123	477	434	73	114	24	7	9	35	16	7	35	96	.263	.319	.412	.731	92	179	5	3	0	5	4	8	.7
1963	24	CHC	NL	148	588	547	79	141	19	11	9	37	24	12	31	122	.258	.300	.382	.682	91	209	2	4	2	4	2	*9	2.3
1964	25	TOT	NL	155	695	634	111	200	30	11	14	58	43	18	40	127	.315	.358	.464	.821	123	294	5	4	13	4	0	*79/8	5.6
1964	25	CHC	NL	52	231	215	30	54	9	2	2	14	10	3	13	40	.251	.300	.340	.640	77	73	3	2	1	0	0	9/8
1964	25	STL	NL	103	464	419	81	146	21	9	12	44	33	15	27	87	.348	.387	.527	.915	146	221	2	2	12	4	0	7/98
1965	26	STL	NL	155	697	631	107	182	35	8	16	69	63	27	45	116	.288	.345	.445	.791	114	281	2	10	11	0	6	*7/98	4.0

Here are Revere's stats:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	WAR
2010	22	MIN	AL	13	30	28	1	5	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	5	.179	.233	.179	.412	16	5	1	0	0	0	0	/879D
2011	23	MIN	AL	117	481	450	56	120	9	5	0	30	34	9	26	41	.267	.310	.309	.619	72	139	7	2	3	0	1	87/9D	.7
2012	24	MIN	AL	124	553	511	70	150	13	6	0	32	40	9	29	54	.294	.333	.342	.675	89	175	8	3	6	4	0	*98/7	2.4

Brock obviously comes in with more power and a higher OPS+, but Revere already has a much higher amount of SBs and a clearly lower CS% rate. Their combined WAR value in their first two years is nearly identical (Revere 3.1/Brock 3.0). Looking at each of their poor BB%, this also looks favorably upon Revere- his BB rates were 5.4% and 5.2%, while Brock's were 7.3% and 5.3%. But Revere's K rates were way better- 8.5% and 9.8%- versus Brock who struck out at rates of 20.1% and 20.7%.

I'm not saying Revere is going to suddenly start a power surge and turn into a can't-miss Hall of Famer, but I don't think he's reached anywhere close to the top of his ceiling, another all-around quantum jump in skills next year like this year shouldn't be easily dismissed as unlikely. If in this off-season, he hits the weight room a little bit, works on adjusting his swing to hit more gaps on the fly and develops a little more plate discipline, combined with his already-established ability to cover more ground in the OF than just about anyone in baseball, I think he could be on the cusp of a near-great-to-great career.

Since the main topic of concern is the failure at getting on base, it's important to go back to the stats. Brock's OBP dropped from .319 to .300 from year one to year two. In his first 5 years, Brock had 3 out of 5 seasons of OBP below what Revere achieved this season at .333 (this includes the 1966 season as year 5, which because of space limitations, I couldn't publish in Brock's stat line).

Revere clearly fell off late in the season; I'm not willing to say whether that was returning to the mean, a conditioning issue, or playing on a losing club. I imagine Revere played more this season than he has any other season previously. Not making excuses, but looking at context.

While Span might out produce Revere in any number of measurable ways, his healthy issues are also hard to discount. With Hicks (and Benson, and Buxton, and Kepler) in the wings, I hope the Twins "roll the dice": trading Span and going with Revere in CF to open 2013.