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Over at Rant Sports, a local independent writer is wondering if the Twins won't chase Ervin Santana this offseason. Here's the link....
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2012/09/26/mlb-rumors-minnesota-twins-free-agent-target-ervin-santana/
I'll admit, he's one of my favorite targets on the market, just 30 years old, coming off a down year but finishing strong. I suspect he's at the upper range of where the Twins land, but it's not inconceivable.
It's pretty clear the Twins need starting pitching, and they should leave no stone unturned in that pursuit.
On that note, here is an article I recently wrote for Rant Sports.com taking a look at Santana as a potential free agent target for the Twins.
Check out the link here: http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2012/0...ervin-santana/
Any and all feedback is welcome, and let's get a discussion going. What do you all think of Santana as a potential Twin in 2013 and beyond?
He is Francisco Liriano Part DEUX
He's never been the same since he rehabbed an avoided TJ surgery 3-4 yrs ago. I'm really not interested unless we're talking 2/10 or something small as a 2nd (or even 3rd) pitching acquisition. He might be a good upside play but I would rather try to keep a guy like Baker on a similar deal. About the only thing Santana has going for him is that he's better than Blackburn.
Santana is kind of an interesting guy. His xFIP has stayed pretty much constant all these years while his Fastball dropped 3-4 mph (but his breaking stuff and change stayed pretty much constant, so I think that this might be a mechanical issue thing maybe.)
I don't know. He will be 31. He is a lefty.
Here is my thinking about next season:
a. for the Twins to compete they need at least 2 #1 #2 types in the rotation and a #3 (so you can let Diamond be a number 4 and deal with 5+).
b. those guys are not to be found unless they get creative about trading and willing to trade prospects and they get lucky
c. they are probably not willing to do b. (and there are like 3 ifs there), so they better trade the excess fat (Morneau/Span/Willingham/whatever else) for younger players and shoot for 2014-5
What's interesting about a 31 yr old that has consistently had a 4-4.50 xFIP with declining velocity? I believe that his problems are due to avoiding TJ and successfully (kind of) going the rehab route.
I'll take him instead of the yearly Ramon Ortiz, Livan, Marquis signing but I fail to see what is interesting.
Thrylos....Santana is a righty
Kab.....Santana has been well above average the last 3/4yrs (3.65ERA in 66st in 10/11) but dont remember any elbow problems tho
This is exactly who the Twins should target hard....the best of the 2nd tier FA's. 4 of last 7 yrs he's been over 200IP. Is a little inconsistent as he's very good about every other year.
Rather go after Haren/Sanchez/Jackson etc but these guys are out of range of the cheap Terry Ryan...who tonight said payroll is doubtfull to go up again
I can't believe people are on board with this. There was a time when I liked Santana, that time has come and gone. What is interesting about him? He's been inconsistent and barely hanging on to a rotation spot. This would be a waste when you can pay that money toward someone you know you can depend on.
Santana would be great as long as the price is right. I don't understand the over reaction of how bad or inconsistent he is. I live 15 minutes from Anaheim so I've been to quite a few Angels games and Santana is an outstanding pitcher. He was amazing in 2008.. And although his 2009 elbow problems led to a bad year and his velocity dropped slightly due to it he bounced back with solid 2010-2011 seasons. He's given up too many home runs this year but his stuff still looks good and in the last 2 months he's been one of the best pitchers in the league.. so he seems to have figured it back out. If his stock has declined where we can buy low.. He has the upside of a #2 and is pretty much a lock to get you 200 IP so I say do it.
Great job ignoring '09 and '12. During some seasons he was lucky and some he wasn't. he's a 4.00 ERA pitcher that is in decline. Not exactly what I'm looking for.Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
I ignored 09 since that was the year of the elbow problems. Since, he's had 2 extremely solid yrs followed up by a bad one.....kind of his M.O.Quote:
Originally Posted by kab21Great job ignoring '09 and '12. During some seasons he was lucky and some he wasn't. he's a 4.00 ERA pitcher that is in decline. Not exactly what I'm looking for.Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
His 12' velocity of 91.7 is career low, but still better than any other Twins pitcher.....career 92.8
Last 10gms, he's been very good down the stretch with 5W 2L 64.1IP 42h .179BAA 22er 3.08era 57k 18bb...pretty solid
No question he's inconsistent year to year but better than Liriano's game to game inconsistency
you still ignore that he was lucky in those two good seasons. Some of us haven't been surprised that the wheels fell off at the beginning of this season. If the Twins can get Ervin cheap AND STILL add one better pitcher then I have no problem going after him but he's setting up for all kinds of disappointment in the future.
Do not see anything special in Santana, would still like Shawn Marcum.
Ervin Santana is the third pitcher that the Twins should target. For the first two, see my most recent blog post!