Thread: Dan Haren Likely to Join Starting Pitching Free Agent Class

Originally Posted by kab21

a smaller deal like Willingham is still a multi year deal. I really^100 hope they don't spend big in FA this year but 3/30 for a pitcher is reasonable and breaks the so called historical trend.

3/30 will get you an aging pitcher that has had one or two good years. That is why Ryan will not be making any splashes in the free agent market. If most teams do not pick up the options on their pitchers then there will be plenty of pitchers who will do a one year contract. The market will be clearer once the season ends.

Originally Posted by Top Gun

He has always been a very poor second half pitcher, so if your are thinking playoff forget it. Angals won't have much left.

That's an old push on him, not the truth since he's been with the Angels. His 2011 was skewed by an oblique injury issue, but in second halfs that he's been somewhat healthy as an Angel, it's fairly significantly opposite...:

2012: 1.37 lower ERA, 0.29 lower WHIP in second half than first
2010: 1.02 lower ERA, 0.13 lower WHIP in second half than first:

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

Twins dont offer multi yr deals to pitchers tho.
Lots of people think its the money offerred, but if a pitcher will take a 1 or 2 yr deal...then Terry Ryan will be interested. 3 yr deal....Twins are out. 4 yr deal, wont even negotiate.
What kind of deal wil Dan Haren, at 32, be interested in?? His velocity was down a lot this yr (88.5 ave vs career 90.9) but I have always been a big fan of his. Hopefully MN will contact him.

What is this based on? Years of 60M payrolls and/or having strong pitching staffs?

I can almost guarantee that the Twins will sign someone this offseason to break your historical trend.

Haren could work for me in the 3/30 neighborhood. He was injured this year but if he's healthy then he's a great #2 for a relatively bargain price. I'm just hoping that they don't lock onto someone and end up in the 5/75 neighborhood.

The Twins have rarely had a strong pitching staff, and a $60 million payroll has no bearing on the length of a deal, nothing stops a GM from signing a #4 pitcher to a 2 year $3 million deal. The fact simply is that Terry Ryan doesn't believe the risk of a multi-year deal is worth the reward of the quality of pitcher that comes with those kind of requests. The only multi-year deal Ryan has ever given a starter who didn't wear a Twins uniform in the previous season was Bob Tewksbury in 1997.

I agree that it's time for the philosophy to end but I'm not giving it very strong odds. Spending $20 per year total for Haren and Jake Peavy would solidify the front of the rotation and if they perform as expected and the Twins could be right back in contention. However, I don't think Ryan has the constitution to offer the multi-year deals necessary to do this. History tells us that instead of spending $10-15 million for a top of the rotation guy, Ryan will give $5 million for a replacement level guy and spread the rest of the money on a handfull of hit-or-miss position players. This has never made economical sense as that replacement level pitcher is never any better than the already crappy options in AAA but it lets Ryan sleep better at night as no risk was taken.

Do not think that Haren and Peavy will sign for $10 mil a year. Both will probably get more than that, espically Peavy. Total for the two will be about $25 mil a year. Too many big market clubs need pitching.(Yankees, Boston, Mets) Twins are more likely to try and trade for major league ready starters from clubs like Tampa Bay, Seattle, Oakland (all of whom need offense and are interested in cost control players, which the Twins have).

I guess I'll just disagree with everyone about what Ryan means when he says the Twins won't spend big on pitching. I consider big to be the 50-100M range (Buehrle, CJ wilson, Cliff Lee for example). I consider 3/30 to be mid sized spending similar to the Willingham contract last year and puts the twins in the market for a decent pitcher without exposing them to too much long risk.

Ryan doesn't speak the truth anyway so why even think that?

Originally Posted by kab21

I guess I'll just disagree with everyone about what Ryan means when he says the Twins won't spend big on pitching. I consider big to be the 50-100M range (Buehrle, CJ wilson, Cliff Lee for example). I consider 3/30 to be mid sized spending similar to the Willingham contract last year and puts the twins in the market for a decent pitcher without exposing them to too much long risk.

3/30 is not at all similar to a Willingham contract. There is a huge amount of difference between 7 million a year and 10.
What the Twins would hope for is a 1.5 WAR player they sign in the to blossom into a 3.

Originally Posted by old nurse

3/30 is not at all similar to a Willingham contract. There is a huge amount of difference between 7 million a year and 10.What the Twins would hope for is a 1.5 WAR player they sign in the to blossom into a 3.

What kab is saying is that 3/30 is the pitching equivalent of the Willingham contract - not small, but not a huge deal either. I would venture to bet that what the Twins will do is hope to have another offseason like Burton, Fien, Willingham, and Doumit. I just give them very low odds of being successful with that a second time.