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Article can be found here: http://mlb.si.com/2012/09/20/wait-ti...sct=mlb_bf2_a3
While I don't really expect next year to be impressive, I was a little taken aback by how dismissive they were of their chances to compete again anytime soon. But the realist in me acknowledges that it's pretty possible that will end up being the case.
Required reading for ownership. Changes need to be made.
It's hard to disagree with anything that was written in the article.
However, with some decent pitching things tend to look a lot better. Where that pitching will come from is the question.
Nothing we haven't already heard before.
Definitely nothing earth shattering. I guess the disappointing thing is that many of us fans have recognized that the Twins MI and pitching philosophy is flawed for some time now, yet the team's management seems to have been caught off guard by these things, or simply disregarded them as unimportant. Because of that I don't know how much optimism we can have going forward. I hope that management takes the lessons from the last couple of years and learns from them, but...I think it would be much easier for a new GM/Manager combination to make the necessary changes. New guys don't have the same loyalties and bias' that guys that have been around the organization for years do. Not saying that Ryan/Gardenhire are bad at what they do, just that as broken as things are, it's time to change directions.
I think the Pohlad's are going to want some sort of action when they see how much harder it is to sell season tickets this off-season. I hope they don't further cut the teams payroll, as that seems to be a race to bottom, and will make it even that much harder to get things turned around.
The assessment seems pretty fair to me. When people post optimistically about the Twins being competitive in 2013, it always seems like there are a lot of "ifs" attached. Unfortunately in most years, the answer to some of the ifs is going to be "not happening". When you are as bad as the Twins have been the last couple of years, there's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to showing real improvement.
On the payroll question, I'm starting to wonder about being locked into a certain percentage of payroll. While there needs to be a floor and, from ownership's standpoint, a ceiling, I think I'd rather see a bigger range than has been talked about in the past.
It would seem to me that in true rebuilding years, you could (maybe should?) underspend somewhat because you are using younger players to rebuild. But then I would want the "surplus" reserved for years where you are truly competitive so that you could overextend somewhat to add the missing piece (s) -- something the Twins really didn't do in their division championship years. I realize that this would be a radical change in organizational philosophy, and at this point it would require a lot of faith by fans but maybe a locked in % just isn't the best thing.
Nothing surprising there until they talk about prospects. It's more than a little unfair to talk about "top prospect Sano being a few years away" and completely fail to mention Arcia, Hicks, or Gibson. There's a chance the Twins will have 5-6 players on several Top 100 prospects lists next spring. It's misleading to mention the one guy (who is probably the best of the bunch) being a few years away without mentioning that the Twins minor league system looks pretty good and might even crack some top 10 lists next season (due to positional strength, definitely not from pitching).
The amount of hitting talent in the farm system doesn't seem extraordinary, and a nearly complete lack of pitching drags the overall score to no better than average, IMO. Hard to see a top-10 ranking.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
With Gibson still out for TJ surgery, Rosario still suffering from Crushed Face Syndrome, and before the emergence of Berrios, Bleacher Report ranked the farm system 15th in MLB during their mid-season rankings. Keith Law ranked them 14th in March. Before what was considered a very solid 2012 draft, the Twins were sitting in the 14-19 range in most rankings. Outside of Benson and Wimmers, almost every notable prospect in the system had a good year.Quote:
Originally Posted by ashburyjohnThe amount of hitting talent in the farm system doesn't seem extraordinary, and a nearly complete lack of pitching drags the overall score to no better than average, IMO. Hard to see a top-10 ranking.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
With the continued emergence of Hicks and Sano, the monster season by Arcia, the amazingly quick rise of Berrios, the solid play of Buxton, the successful transition of Rosario to the infield, and the continued rehab of Gibson, I expect the Twins to sit in the 8-14 range in most pre-season rankings. They won't crack the top ten in all the rankings (or probably even most) but they'll crack the list for some people.
Here are a couple of things (and, no, I am not gonna mention my Fire Gardy and Ryan mantra) :
- National writers unless they are specialized, they do not know prospects in every organization other than the top ones
- Most teams, if they are creative, they can turn top hitting prospects into top pitching prospects. All it requires is a mentality of "yes, it is ok to trade OF prospects if you have more than you can use". This will be part of the challenge for these Twins
I was pretty much with them until this last sentence:
"It will be years before this team competes for another AL Central crown."
It may be years before this team competes for a World Series crown, but it doesn't take much to be competitive in the AL Central these days.
A lot of people talk about the Twins division titles in the 00's as though they don't count because of supposed division weakness (despite, for example, 2006 when it was the only MLB divsion with three 90+ win teams), but the AL Central now is weaker than it ever was in that time. I'm not predicting the Twins will win it, but being good enough to compete in it is an achievable goal.
So much depends on guessing which prospects or free agents to obtain. It is way too early to tell how the Twins will be next year. It will still take a lot of luck for them to content(or one trade that is one sided).
While I agree with you that it's possible, it's also incredibly rare. I can't remember the last time I saw a true prospect-for-prospect swap.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
The twins don't need to trade a prospect for a prospect. In arcia and hicks case,. They can trade the guy the prospect is replacing insteadQuote:
Originally Posted by Brock BeauchampWhile I agree with you that it's possible, it's also incredibly rare. I can't remember the last time I saw a true prospect-for-prospect swap.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
It seems hard to be optimistic about next year with such a weakness in starting pitchers. And it seems to me that the Twins are incompetent in terms of scouting, drafting and developing starting pitchers. Why do so many other teams not have this problem? Look at the Rays, A's, Angels, and Dodgers -- they seem to always be brimming with good pitchers. Why not hire some of their scouts and coaches?