Thread: Terry Ryan's "Thin" SP Market Quote

The White Sox might have a rotation fix next year. Sale, Danks and Quintana are locks.

$4m already sunk in buying out peavy, I think he comes back to Chi on a more reasonable deal. That leaves one spot for Liriano and Floyd. The Sox aren't cheap, so they probably make qualifying offers to both but Myers wants to start again. That puts Liriano especially in a fix, I think he declines the qualifying offer and hits the market. Could be brought back on the cheap if he's promised a rotation spot, though it would cost the Twins their 2nd pick.

edit: doing the math, that would potentially make Floyd, or Myers available too.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

The White Sox might have a rotation fix next year. Sale, Danks and Quintana are locks.

$4m already sunk in buying out peavy, I think he comes back to Chi on a more reasonable deal. That leaves one spot for Liriano and Floyd. The Sox aren't cheap, so they probably make qualifying offers to both but Myers wants to start again. That puts Liriano especially in a fix, I think he declines the qualifying offer and hits the market. Could be brought back on the cheap if he's promised a rotation spot, though it would cost the Twins their 2nd pick.

edit: doing the math, that would potentially make Floyd, or Myers available too.

They can't make an Qualifying offer to Liriano (the can but it won't net compensation) as he doesn't qualify since he wasn't with the White Sox for the whole season.

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

Originally Posted by Willihammer

The White Sox might have a rotation fix next year. Sale, Danks and Quintana are locks.

$4m already sunk in buying out peavy, I think he comes back to Chi on a more reasonable deal. That leaves one spot for Liriano and Floyd. The Sox aren't cheap, so they probably make qualifying offers to both but Myers wants to start again. That puts Liriano especially in a fix, I think he declines the qualifying offer and hits the market. Could be brought back on the cheap if he's promised a rotation spot, though it would cost the Twins their 2nd pick.

edit: doing the math, that would potentially make Floyd, or Myers available too.

They can't make an Qualifying offer to Liriano (the can but it won't net compensation) as he doesn't qualify since he wasn't with the White Sox for the whole season.

Yep. The Twins lose no pick by signing Liriano.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

I like the theory of this, although I think we'd get a 2-3 players for Span. I could also see the Twins moving one of Hicks/Arcia this offseason, too, for more pitching.

I think the chance of them moving Hicks or Arcia is almost nil. They need at least one of those guys in the short-term if they trade Span, who is easily their most valuable and tradable piece. Over the long-term, they need to create a cushion if Revere fails and as Willingham transitions into a more fitting role at DH. The Twins have a lot of OF prospects but with Benson falling on his face in 2012, that list shortened quite a bit and chances are they'll need both Arcia and Hicks in the mid-term to bridge the gap to Buxton.

If they trade Span and Arcia, they have a starting OF next year of Willingham, Revere, Parmelee w/Mastro as #4 and Herrmann/Doumit as #5. Hicks will be in the wings and the Twins will have a bunch of replacement level OFers at AAA (Carson, Ramirez, Benson, Thomas) if nothing else. There is some gap behind Hicks/Arcia as no one at A+ really jumps out but Sano probably goes to RF and he could progress quickly.

I'm not saying just get rid of one of Hicks/Arcia but both of those guys should have some trade value to teams looking to add OF prospect for pitching. Could Ryan move Hicks in a package to the pitching rich Rays to get Chris Archer, BA #89 (fell from #29 the year before) who is having a cup of coffee in the majors this year? Twins apparently were eying Eovaldi (#96) from the Dodgers at one point.

Oh that's right. I'd be surprised if they signed him anyway, someone else would promise him a rotation spot before the Twins. Myers seems like more their type.

Speaking of Jake Peavy, there's another pool of potential trade targets that the Twins could look in to... the "grossly overpaid and underperforming older former aces that teams would love to get rid of now" pool.

The Mets owe Johan Santana $25.5 million for 2013 and there's a $25 million option for 2014 (with a $5 mil buyout I think). Maybe they'd eat about 90% of his contract and take Deolis Guerra back in return? Anyone up for a Santana reunion tour?

OK maybe not.

Can we put this "bring back Liriano" talk to bed right now? He's not a good pitcher, and we should be glad he went to Chicago. He's like our Trojan horse.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Given that Terry Ryan's vague quote in a Jim Souhan column about a "thin" SP market has generated a lot of confusion here and elsewhere, I felt the best idea would be to simply email Souhan for clarification. His response:

"He was referring to top-of-the-rotation starters. And my interpretation was that he was talking about top-of-the-rotation starters he would be interested in."

So there ya go. I don't think anyone should be surprised by that.

I'm fine with them choosing not to pay 20m a year for someone, but if they sit on their heels again or just sign pitchers like Jason Marquis, they'll be a joke for another year and see their attendance decline by another 3k a game if not more.

So to say that the market for aces is thin is fine, but for starting pitching help, especially for a team like the Twins is false. Either Ryan is being delibrately misleading or Souhan did a horrible job relaying the information.

Sano for David price. Throw in random mediocre minor league starter if you have to.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Sano for David price. Throw in random mediocre minor league starter if you have to.

The Rays aren't going to give away Price for a guy who hasn't played above low A ball. I could see them doing a deal around Profar+more from the Rangers.

I also don't want to wait, given this crop of free agents, to see what settles to the bottom. That has too often been our strategy, on the small-market assumption that teams will overpay early in the process and then there will be this glut of cheap and available pitchers just looking for work. I don't want to choose from that well, as we have done over and over again. How about we pick out a couple of those guys (I'd love Marcum and Blanton, but there are a lot of names out there) and sign them for reasonable contracts? It sends a positive message that we're not going to sit on our heels, we're going to spend the freed-up money from expiring contracts to improve this team with solid pitchers with a track record of longevity or success or upside. It will shock me if the team actually does this, but they should, then have a starting rotation of Marcum, Blanton, Diamond, Deduno, Hendriks, with Gibson, DeVries, Walter waiting in the wings or for emergency starts. After all, we started the year thinking it was Baker, Blackburn, Liriano, Pavano and Marquis and that went haywire.

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.

The Twins' best chance to upgrade their rotation is through a trade, but Span alone won't get it done.

My prediction is that Span and a prospect will be traded for an AA starter and maybe a throw-in. And the Twins will sign one "filler" starter a la Marquis.

Ok, ya, that was unrealistic....

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.

Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.

Why don't we locate the possible extremes of what they could do and then work towards a reasonable center . . .

One extreme, they sign NO pitchers (except for going low-base on Baker) and instead chase down the MI route again . . . rolling out of ST with Diamond-Deduno-DeVries-Hendriks-Walters or Vasquez, and Baker, Gibson, and Hernandez are in AAA (or on the DL in Baker's case).

On the other possible extreme they sign Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, and let's say Ervin Santana for 2-3 years each and 8-12 million (low 2 years and $48 million, high 3 years $108 million).

Back to the other extreme: Everything stays the same except they sign either a Joe Saunders or an Erik Bedard on a one-year, $5 million deal.

Etc. Etc. Maybe this is more structured than just throwing out names.

Perhaps the point is that the most likely scenario involves Ervin Santana and Erik Bedard!

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.

Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.

Marcum has proven he can pitch in the AL East with an ERA+ well over 100. I'll take it. He hasn't been quite as good with Milwaukee (surprisingly) but I think he's still a decent pitcher. He has lost something on his fastball (down in the 87mph range now) so he's not my first choice but he wouldn't be a terrible signing by the Twins, I think.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.

Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.

$30 mil over 3 years? yeah I would be all over that one champ, but notice I said 40 mil over 3 years, which is what it would probably cost. No thanks. He is one the wrong side of thirty...let someone else over pay for him at this point.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Even though there are a good number of solid #3's out there, I'd rather the Twins not do something stupid like giving one of them 40 million over 3 years. The only thing worse then over paying for elite players is over paying for mediocrity like a Marcum or such. Hopefully the Twins can find the right guy(s) to give the right deals to.

Marcum has not been mediocre at all. While injured in 2009, he has posted sub 4.00 ERAs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. That's 550ish innings of sub 4.00 ERA. If the Twins aren't going to be willing to throw $30 over 3 years for someone like that, forget about trying to compete and especially forget about trying to win in the playoffs.

Marcum has proven he can pitch in the AL East with an ERA+ well over 100. I'll take it. He hasn't been quite as good with Milwaukee (surprisingly) but I think he's still a decent pitcher. He has lost something on his fastball (down in the 87mph range now) so he's not my first choice but he wouldn't be a terrible signing by the Twins, I think.

It's all relative, if the Twins can get him on a 2 year/18 mil deal its a good signing, but the minute you start competeing with a bunch of other teams to overpay him, its a bad signing plain and simple. The rotation is absolute dog **** no doubt, but the solution isn't to go out and over pay for a bunch of "solid #3 type guys" the solution is to trade some assets for some high upside guys who can be top of the rotation guys, and give 1-2 year deals to guys who's value is low, but have the potential to be high upside guys (see: SCOTT BAKER!!!!!!)