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Fair enough I guess. I was going a bit off of memory, and it does look like his May numbers were a bit better. His three games in Sept, he actually hit pretty well also, but overall an unimpressive body of work this season.
Either way, it does look like we agree, sadly, on his upside.
dont agree with this assesment of Dozier.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
This may be splitting hairs, but his earlier higher average in AAA was due to an amazing first two weeks. He was in the start of the slump when called up.Quote:
Originally Posted by jokin
I've also pointed out elsewhere, as have others that it's very dangerous to put too much stock in those A+/AA numbers as he was among the oldest players in those minor leagues. .As I've said, he has yet to show sustained success at a "developmentally appropriate" level.
So, imo, his overall struggles both at AAA and the majors are not all that surprising, but I definitely agree that the Twins handled him extremely poorly.
I don't think they've scapegoated him, but for an organization that is usually patient with players in the minor leagues, and even if they weren't his original call-up wasn't warranted or needed.
With a May 15 bday, he was 24 for his entire AA run & that is older than I like BUT this year alone.....Romero, Collabello, DeLos Santos, Hermann, Hanson, Tosoni & Benson were all older than 24 & Doziers AA numbers were as good as anyones (for position comparison anyways).
At Ft Myers, he was still 23 & this year alone Rams, Liddle, Goncalves, Knudson, Leer, Hidalgo & Gonzalez were 23 or older.
He just needs to find his stroke again & start drawing some more walks. If his hitting gets back to reasonable, MN will find a spot.....tho I believe he is slightly in the doghouse.
I believe that Dozier will start at Rochester, probably after a quick spring demotion. He will have to hit to make it back. Twins will go with Floriman, Escobar and Carroll in the infield. Pressure will be on if Rosario starts in New Britian as he will have about a year to make it back, before the lower minor league talent catches up to him. This may only change if the Twins tender Casilla, but do not see this happening.
We got a whole slew of backups and need at least one stud from outside of the organization for 2b/SS and hope Plouffe can hit homers and equal his 2012 play for another season. Carroll and one plus an organizational outsider. The other two join Tosi at AAA for most of the season.
Great post, Jokin, though I find it absurd to think he has a "long road" back. Clearly the non-September callup indicates that. But they are just not intelligent there. THE TWINS made the mistake first by calling him up before he had done anything at AAA (I know AAA "doesn't matter" but .. . . clearly it does), then sticking with him for 6 weeks after he started to REALLY plummet down, down, down. He isn't to blame for that total mismanagement.Quote:
Originally Posted by jokin"(though hitting below .200 in AAA certainly didn't help) "Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexThe additional issues with Dozier and the hints from the front office regarding Dozier are about not being in the right position before the play starts and some other issues that involved decision making and not stats. Not sure how big of a deal these are, but my guess is that considering Gardy was pretty high on him, I'd bet that they played just as big a role as his lack of hitting (though hitting below .200 in AAA certainly didn't help). That's speculation on my part, but I don't think he gets called back up unless he starts hitting well, clears up those issues or in the case of injuries.Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
I agree with your overall assessment, but, to be fair, at AAA he did bat .276 with an OPS of .710 before his call-up, coming off of a terrific 2011 year in AA/A+ (BA .320/OPS .890). Culminating with his last disastrous media interview, Dozier clearly had crumbled under the pressures of the season-long spotlight- on a struggling team that has made a convenient habit of finding convenient scapegoats when the timing was right- it was not surprising that his struggles continued late-season in Roc.
As I also speculated- and am in agreement with you, he has a long road back. It's possible that they put him up next spring as "competition" with Plouffe for the 3B job, with the intention of giving him the SS job again at a depleted Rochester infield. (The logical move is trying him out at the lower-pressure job at 2B, but it appears that the Twins aren't looking in that direction).
The answer seems painfully obvious. Start 2013 with Florimon at short and Dozier at 2B. Carroll is the true utility infielder for all three positions. Escobar needs to prove that he can hit AT ALL, so he can start the season at AAA. If either Florimon or Dozier start to suck, stick Carroll in as the starter and KEEP the other one up as the utility player. Carroll is finally rounding out to his expectations with a .260/.340 slash. That works as a utility guy and potential starter.
Meanwhile, as I have posted elsewhere, the Twins should trade Morneau to the Red Sox for Allen Webster and Garin Cecchini (and if up to half of Morneau's salary needs to be paid by the Twins, so be it). Webster seems Hendriksesque (the minor league version of Hendriks) and Cecchini is a good 3B prospect. They would likely start out at AAA and AA, respectively. Cecchini provides much need Plouffe protection in case Plouffe doesn't right that ship.
This is an easy question.
Florimon will be the starting SS when the team comes north next year...and it is the right choice.
Dozier ain't got it. He's just another career minor-leaguer forced to play in a situation that is way over his head because the Twins didn't have anybody else. Dozier, Plouffe, Valencia, Hughes, Dinkleman, etc;....the list is endless.
I'll take Escobar, better than the other 2 defensively.
He's on the older end in terms of actual major league prospects, so citing a bunch of guys who are older and in AA in a relatively poor farm system doesn't really contradict the argument. The Twins will likely have real prospects in AA next year (or shortly after) who are much younger.Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
Again I disagree with this.....Dozier was a 4 yr senior (big knock on him) who was only an 8th round pick (only 2 Twins 8th rounders in past 20yrs made majors w/Dinkelman the other). Especially in terms of Twins prospects, he moved to AA in less than 2 calender yrs & majors in less than 3....nova speed for MN.Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexHe's on the older end in terms of actual major league prospects, so citing a bunch of guys who are older and in AA in a relatively poor farm system doesn't really contradict the argument. The Twins will likely have real prospects in AA next year (or shortly after) who are much younger.Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
Guys like Romero & DeLos Santos were on the 40 man roster in the past...before being removed as busts...and Tosoni & Benson were major leaguers last yr.....were all highly thought of prospects that have disappointed
Guess Im just surprised that nobody has a problem with Florimon bein 6months older than Dozier....while writing him off so soon.
That's fine if you disagree, but your counterpoints continue to make the case against having high expectations for Dozier based on AA numbers as a 24. The players you mention have seen their status fall and their big league stints were uninspiring.Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
My points are far less a knock on Dozier than that I think way too many expectations have been laid upon him. Just because Dozier made the majors after three years doesn't mean he should have and that's the point about using his AA numbers as a 24 year old to evaluate him. They didn't tell us anything about how ready (or in this case, not ready) he was for the majors. On top of that, we're talking about 78 games in AA (hence my us of the phrase "sustained success").
Personally, I'd have liked to see him at AAA for a full season (not unlike what they did with Parmelee even though they botched that a couple of times) and that would have given a much better picture of where he was at. At this point, I honestly think this was, at best, a lost and wasted year of development for him. At worst, this could have ruined him for the long run.
Regarding the Florimon comparison. If you are going to have a SS who can't hit, it's probably better to have one that has a better arm and better range. That said, it's not really an issue of Dozier or Florimon (or Esocobar); the Twins MI situation is dire and there's not anything in the near future that looks to change that.
What deal to send Nishi back to Japan? It's been proposed, but until that happens - he's still in the mix. Like it or not!
Actually, I agree with ya on the crux of the arguement.Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexThat's fine if you disagree, but your counterpoints continue to make the case against having high expectations for Dozier based on AA numbers as a 24. The players you mention have seen their status fall and their big league stints were uninspiring.Quote:
Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz
My points are far less a knock on Dozier than that I think way too many expectations have been laid upon him. Just because Dozier made the majors after three years doesn't mean he should have and that's the point about using his AA numbers as a 24 year old to evaluate him. They didn't tell us anything about how ready (or in this case, not ready) he was for the majors. On top of that, we're talking about 78 games in AA (hence my us of the phrase "sustained success").
Personally, I'd have liked to see him at AAA for a full season (not unlike what they did with Parmelee even though they botched that a couple of times) and that would have given a much better picture of where he was at. At this point, I honestly think this was, at best, a lost and wasted year of development for him. At worst, this could have ruined him for the long run.
Regarding the Florimon comparison. If you are going to have a SS who can't hit, it's probably better to have one that has a better arm and better range. That said, it's not really an issue of Dozier or Florimon (or Esocobar); the Twins MI situation is dire and there's not anything in the near future that looks to change that.
If MN was gonna call him up this year after 30gms this year.....he shoulda been up from AA last Sept to audition. With the 2011 SS situation, there still was no reason not to call him up OTHER than Mn doesnt call up prospects that soon, regardless of how they play/what team considers their future to be.
In 2013, they will still be deciding on a player/position that they refused to identify in 2011
I think I just heard the Oakland A's laughing at the Twins SS situation.
I have no idea why people continue to plug in Florimon at SS while saying Escobar can't hit or not even mentioning him as an option.
Escobar hit as well or better than Florimon at every level in the minors while being 3 years younger when at those levels. He is also a plus defender but has a track record of being a much more consistent fielder.
His last season getting full time ABs was at AAA as a 22 year old where he put up a .657 OPS. Our best MI this year (Jamey Carroll) currently has a .643 OPS. Throw on top of that he's always been projected as a gold glove caliber defender. All you have to do is look at the other dugout tonight. The other Escobar has also always been a plus defender but was horrible at the plate in his first 2 full seasons posting a .614 OPS followed by a .633 OPS. They continued to let him play everyday and this year he's broken out and is now considered one of the best all around SS in the league.
This year was a wasted year for Escobar but he is still only going to be 24 at the start of next season which is 2 years younger than the other 2 mentioned internal options. Why shouldn't he deserve the shot to play everyday?
Escobar's OBP is pretty ugly even in the minors and when compared to those two and especially Carroll. Unless you're hitting a good number of home runs that makes you a pretty worthless hitter.
The Twins really do have an embarrassment of riches in the middle infield.
Maybe, but personally I think Escobar is NOTHING more than what Casilla is currently......no hit, good field.Quote:
Originally Posted by JP3700
Can you anyone look at the options available and seriously consider hitting?
I find it funny that on your previous posts your argument on Dozier was his age (which I agree with) yet you don't acknowledge Escobar's at the levels he was playing at. But okay let's take a look at his numbers. I'm going to compare him to our best MI this year, Jamey CarrollQuote:
Originally Posted by Alex
- He never posted an OBP under .300 in any full season in the minors while being very young for every level. Carroll has a .338 OBP this year so let's make it simple and say Escobar projects to have a .308 OBP in his first full season. So Carroll gets on base 3 more times per 100 ABs than a developing 24 year old that has a chance to improve.
- At 21 between high A and AA he had 43 XBH, age 22 at AAA he had 31. In comparison Carroll has 17 XBH this season.
- Escobar is much better on defense at every aspect.
- Escobar has more speed
Look I'm not saying he's the answer, but from our internal options he is the best one with the highest upside. I just find it funny that no one even mentions it. Tulo, Andrus and Asdrubal aren't walking through the door so if Escobar by age 26 can develop a OPS that hovers around .700 on top of his defensive skills I would definitely take that as my everyday SS
If you want me to give credit to him for being a terrible hitter and couching it because he's "young," fine, but that's not the way it really works (and he's not THAT young). If a guy is going to hit well, he should hit well. When they do it against younger competition you have to take it into account, as in Dozier's case. You don't do the reverse though and say that because someone is young and not hitting, they are actually better than they are.Quote:
Originally Posted by JP3700
Guys who get walks in the minors tend to get even fewer in the majors. He is 23, so he certainly has a chance to improve, but it's not like he's 18 and playing in AAA and really hit well ever beyond rookie ball (OBP of 300 is pretty terrible by the way) and once you get past single A his numbers are awful (between AA and AAA, he OBP is below .300), they're not even good for a minor leaguer.
For his CAREER as a minor leaguer, he's a .267/.312/.348 hitter. There's no getting around how bad this is...they're not close to the numbers of an everyday player. A good comparison is Ben Revere, elite defensively at his position but a below average hitter in the bigs. Even he hit minor league pitching hard and was a comparable age to Escobar at similar levels.
The bottom line is none of these guys have shown anything over a significant period of time that should lead anyone to think they can be everyday options.