I remember intense September baseball as well -- except for 2010 -- which was the beginning of the current debacle.
Originally Posted by Riverbrian
What I don't remember is particularly intense October baseball.
You can argue all you want about pitching and meeting better teams but I still believe that Gardenhire's teams have underperformed in the post-season. Ironically I believe that it is probably because of his regular season mentality. Gardenhire is all about the long view -- never get too high or low, there will be another game tomorrow.
But the playoffs aren't like that. There WON'T always be another game tomorrow -- there is a premium on winning early (and now a premium on winning a 1-game playoff if you are a wild card team). I believe that Gardenhire's philosophy has served the Twins very well during regular seasons -- and I do believe that his teams have won a Central Division championship or two that they probably wouldn't have won under another manager. But I believe that same mind set has been pretty much a disaster in the post season.
I don't hate Ron Gardenhire but the time has come for him to step down. It is time for an injection of new energy and ideas. It may be a disaster -- and it may be necessary to make more than one change -- but I'd rather see that than the stagnation we are currently witnessing (and that goes for the front office, too).
Congrats for veering conveniently past my points.
Originally Posted by Oxtung
If that's how you conceptualize my take, you are mistaken, my friend. I attend the same camp that you do, although it's demonstrable that Gardy has been a bedwetter at the postseason camp throughout his career, too.
Originally Posted by one_eyed_jack
I don't dismiss it and enjoyed it when it occurred, winning all those AAAA championships was better, for example, than winning the MIAC championship, for sure. Unfortunately, it is demonstrable that Mr. Regular Season Manager never grew into a better manager for postseason baseball, or for that matter, a manager capable of raising his team's competitive level to AL Eastern Division Standards.
Originally Posted by Riverbrian
September acts exactly like October. There is no tomorrow when you are fighting for a playoff spot. The difference is you don't play the last place teams in October. You don't survive September with "There is another game tomorrow mentality".
Originally Posted by JB_Iowa
Yes the Twins have underperformed in the post season... No one can dispute that... The record is clear to see...
October baseball comes down to the best teams in that season. Who is hot and who is healthy. Ultimately... Playoff baseball is a small sample size.
How you performed last year in the playoffs... or the year before that... or the year before that... or the decade before that... has nothing to do with the current year.
A manager can lose 9 straight in the playoffs and then win a World Series the next time round.
New Players every year... New Rotation every year... The context of each team changes from year to year.
All managers should be equipped for the longview. You have to get in... To Win it...
Disclaimer... If I was the owner... Based on my gut feeling and no inside information... I would be changing managers for 2013. I just don't buy the argument that Gardy sucks because of his Playoff record.
Gardy has been nothing but a comparable success over 90 percent of the managers in baseball during his tenure.
The Question is how much Gardy had to do with that? How much the GM had to do with that? How much the players had to do with that? How much the Baseball Gods had to do with?
Playoff record... Same Questions?
I just wish the anti-Gardy crowd don't take competeting for AL Central titles for granted. Gardy has had a hell of a run!!!
Just because you believe the statements highlighted above in bold doesn't necessarily make them true. In the seasons where Gardy clinched early, his teams laid down immediately in the regular season and the opportunity to- get healthy, set up your rotation, gather your focus on the task ahead- still ended up in failure upon failure. Although there's always an inevitable amount of luck involed, winning more bigger-stakes games in October isn't only just one big cosmic crap-shoot. Gardy's teams have had Cy Young and MVP winners, as well as superior role players that other league champs and World Series winners found a way to win without. By the same token, he has found ways to maximize the Twins on-field success despite an owership that prioritizes the business bottom line over anything else. But to implicitly deny that Gardy's tenure has revealed blind spots and fundamental flaws in his managerial approach is just denying reality.
Originally Posted by Riverbrian
FWIW, I don't hate Gardy and I don't represent the POV of the crowd you characterize as "Gardy Sucks". I don't have his photo pasted to a dart-board. I merely offered my own critical evalution of his time at the helm. I concur with your conclusion that it's time for a change after Gardy's great run- and that Gardy shares only his apportioned amount of the successes and failures with the others in the mix.
Originally Posted by jokin
---Well the Twins have certainly fared poorly in the postseason, but I don't put as much of the blame on Gardy as you do. Postseason baseball is team vs. team, not manager vs. manager.
A lot of the Twins playoff losses were close games that turned on one or two plays that the other team made and the Twins didn't. Nathan blowing saves, Kubel completely forgetting how to hit, baserunning blunders, I just don't see how Gardy is to blame for these things.
Injuries played a role too. Liriano in '06. Morneau in '09 and '10. In '87 we were on the other side of that with Jack Clark. Suppose Clark had played in that series while Hrbek had been on the self - does it come out the same way? And if no, then are we still talking about what a great manager TK was?
As Riverbrian pointed out, the playoffs are a tiny sample size. Do the poor playoff performances of Rod Carew and Ted Williams detract from their legacies? Were they 'bedwetters' too?
I also disagree with the dismissiveness with which Gardy's division titles are often viewed. The relative strength of the AL Central notwithstanding, to succeed year in and year out over the long grind of a 162-game season is a really tough thing to do. For all the talk about the legendary managerial genius of TK, he wasn't able string together multiple successful seasons like that.
Up until 2010, the Twins were often significantly outspent by the White Sox and Tigers, so it's not like they had a huge talent advantage over their division rivals.
It all comes down to expectations.
Are you happy with 6 division titles followed by immediate flameouts.....fine. The Yanks canned Joe Torre because of expectaions.
I just want this organization to have loftier hopes, not just sell 2.5m seats & 'play your butts off'.
Guys that support Gardy will argue injuries in 11. Well they were healthy this year and just as bad.
This year, its because of starting pitching supporters will say. Well, this was the rotation that Gardy/Ryan argued in 11 if he had back that they would contend. No fans were stunned that Blackburn/Liriano flamed out as that's what their career numbers predicted. Marquis, everyone saw that coming. Scot Baker & Pavano were due to Twins/Gardy's lame medical staff not diagnosing 2 pitchers who've battled injuries(some big/some minor) the past several yrs. The starting staff flameout IS due to Gardy/Andy choice of starters.
There are regular season red flags about Gardy's tenure, as well. Even in this miserable 2012 season, the Twins have continued a long-established pattern of padding their overall W-L record against the mediocrities, with success against KC (11-7), Cle. (10-5) and the NL (9-9).
Originally Posted by one_eyed_jack
2012 Interdivision records, predictable, as past is prologue: Central (30-33 .476), East (10-18 .357), West (11-27 .289!).
Throughout his tenure, Gardy has never developed changes in strategy (like Oakland, Texas and especially Tampa Bay) to be more consistently competitive outside of his own division.
Gardy was the one who got the twins the reputation for doing things the twins way. Defense and hustle. Just because his players are worse now and some rookies made errors, you can't blame him.
From what I have read on this thread there is way too much passion about Gardenhire on both sides of this worthless coin.
Managers are mostly overrated in modern times.. If this was 10 years ago, I could see the argument for keeping Gardenhire - that was a long time ago and those old time memories don't adhere to 9.16.12.
Two 90+ losing seasons from a club that has toed the line and had a few better than okay seasons in 10 years is not enough to spare Mr. Gardenhire's job. Give him a nice severance payment and get him and his staff out of this organization. New blood is needed.
And for those who think Joe Maddon or Mike Scioscia are gods of managing, they are overrated too. The Twins need to hire a cheap, semi-young upstart manager.
If you blame this years struggles on the rotation:
Gardy couldn't have prevented Baker's injury
Gardy didn't sign Marquis and couldn't control how bad he was
Nobody could make Francisco stay good for an extended period- the white sox haven't been able to and nobody wanted to bet that they could at the trade deadline by trading anyone decent for him
Gardy chose the established ok back of the rotation starter Blackburn instead of unknowns from triple A
Gardy chose the decent inning eater getting paid 8m Pavano instead of unknowns from AAA
I don't see what he could have done better with the rotation.
If Gardy was a Great manager (of which I don't think exists), he would have lifted our mediocre AAA staff above and beyond their abilities (just kidding). 11 seasons as a manager is a great run, It is time to make a change. New ideas, new energy and a level of uncertainty and fear for the players is the answer. This kitchen needs a new head chef. In terms of reward - yesterday is obsolete, the present and future is controllable - this is all that matters for the Twins.
Originally Posted by SpantheMan
I'm not denying reality... lol... I'm trying to be as real as humanly possible. I'd make the change for 2013... But I wouldn't use his playoff record as the reason for making the changing... How real can I get?
Originally Posted by jokin
Gardy has made a bunch of head scratching moves to me... This is my opinion. I've also watched Tony LaRussa and Sparky Anderson make head scratching moves as well. That's my personal opinion on the matter and it amounts to very little because... just cuz I think something... doesn't mean that everyone in the world agrees with me. How Real can I get?
My opinion... and my weighting... A strong regular season record is much more important than a playoff record. The Playoffs are just a collection of small sample sizes... If you get knocked out in the first round 3 games to zero in 2000... And you get knocked out in the first round 3 games to zero in 2001... It's a small sample size on top of a small sample size and when you add up all the small sample sizes... you still have a small sample size... It's a different squad each year facing a team with a different squad. Each year has nothing to do with each other.
The greatest teams in the world have each had a bunch of 3 games losing streaks... 5 game losing streaks... During the course of every season. When it happens in the playoffs... You are done. Thinking a manager is going to stop it by himself is... Well... it puts more creedence in the ability of managers than they deserve.
If Gardy is a bad playoff manager... You should be able to single out the moments that he drove the train off the tracks each time. Even if you can do that... You will find a handful of posters on Twins Daily that will agree with you and a handful that will disagree with you on each train track jumping moment.
In the end... I support a change in managers in 2013... And I do so with no inside information... I do so in the face of nearly 2,000 games worth of data over the course of his career that suggests that Gardy should remain the manager and the realization that he has had no pitching to work with for two years.
I just think a fresh voice would be good for a rebuilding club and I think a different team would be good for Gardy.
I would also like to point out that Hawk Harrelson Fired Tony LaRussa during a bad year. Turned out to be great for Tony and I wonder what White Sox fans think about that in hindsight.
I'm trying my darnedest to be real. I'm supporting a change in managers and supporting the Manager at the same time. That either proves I'm conflicted beyond help or I'm trying to be balanced.
I would love to see a new school, Dave Martinez type replacement but I doubt the FO would seriously consider such a candidate. In that event, keep Gardy. You could do worse than him, and the FO probably would.