09-08-2012, 06:04 PM #1
2013: It's 4th and 15, Punt or Go For It
Ok Twins fans, football season has started and our Twinks are about as out of it as a team possibly could be. Next year looks like it could be tough as well. This summer is crucial for the future of the Twins Organization. Terry Ryan had some great signings last summer spending a small amount of cash. What will he do this summer? More importantly, what SHOULD he do? What would you do?
09-08-2012, 06:26 PM #2
Not sure how great those signings were, all of them were made to replace guys they let leave for more money. He didn't sign one guy that was meant to be better than a guy he could have kept (maybe Doumit and a RP). This team will still lose 90 games, so I don't get why anyone thinks Ryan did a GREAT job so far.
Trade Morneau, Span, and Willingham for as much pitching (and/or MIF) as possible (which would have been a lot more when Willingham was outhitting his past performance). Put Hicks, Arcia and Revere in the OF and have a great defensive OF that will take a year or two to hit in the majors. Put Parmalee at 1B. Play Mauer about like you did this year.
Assuming you can't get two MLB ready, legit, starters in the trades, sign 2 starting pitchers that cost in the $10-15MM per year range. Give Slama a chance (I don't know if he's any good or not, but let's find out over 1-2 months of real work). Put Gibson and Diamond in the rotation with the two new guys (or three if you traded for a legit starter). Let the rest of the players in the system fight it out for the last rotation spot. Offer Baker a 2 year deal worth 5-10MM over the two years (including incentives), if he doesn't take it, let him walk.
btw, you should almost never actually punt. For information on why that is bad, google Easterbrooke/Punt....Win Twins.
09-08-2012, 06:52 PM #3
Here would be my offseason plan with specific details on trades, possible signings, salaries, lineup, starting rotation, and bullpen. It's pretty much, we got a new set of downs but got a holding call on first down so it's 1st and 20. So we have to dig out of a hole, but we still have 3 downs before we have to punt.
4 FA signings -
Carlos Villanueva: 2yrs - 14M with a 8M 3rd year team option with 1M buyout
Ervin Santana: 1yr - 7M
Jeremy Guthrie: 1yr - 7M
Scott Baker: 1 yr - 3M with 6M 2nd year team option/500K buyout and 9M 3rd year team option/1M buyout
Jeff Keppinger: 2yrs - 9M at 4.5M per year
Joakim Soria: 1yr - 5M with a 8M 2nd year team option/1M buyout
Ryan Madson: 1yr - 5M
Denard Span &Alex Burnett in exchange for Randall Delgado
2 C prospects in exchange for Jed Lowrie (he is under control for 2 years)
1. Ben Revere CF
2. Jed Lowrie SS
3. Joe Mauer C
4. Josh Willingham LF
5. Justin Morneau 1B
6. Ryan Doumit DH
7. Chris Parmelee RF
8. Trevor Plouffe 3B
9. Jamey Carroll 2B
Jeff Keppinger 3B/2B/1B
Eduardo Escobar Utility IF
Darin Mastroianni OF
Drew Butera C
Liam Hendriks/Sam Deduno
AAA rotation depth:
Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson
62.5M - 8 players under contract
5.5M estimate - 11 min salaries
6M estimate - 4 arbitration eligible
19.5M - 4 free agent contracts
93.5M estimated team salary
Most of the transactions made are high upside signings or trades. Randall Delgado will be 23 with a nice projection as a #2 or 3 starter. Jed Lowrie is great but can't seem to stay healthy so I'm taking a shot there, with the hopes he stays healthy. Carlos Villanueva has shown he can start in the AL east and I like him as an under the radar signing. The other 2 possible signings other than Villanueva have shown they can be good but have been inconsistent recently and will have something to prove. Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson are both coming off Tommy John and will want to prove themselves on one year deals. I call this the Tampa Bay Ray special, if we are contending we have a solid closer, if not we might have good value at the deadline.
I have Jeff Keppinger on the bench, but I would pretty much have him starting almost everyday at different positions. He is flexible and kills left handed pitching. Darin Mastroianni and Eduardo Escobar will be used often as defensive replacements and/or pinch runners.
Basically my goal here was to use the Baltimore Orioles blueprint of trying to be competitive. A strong lineup which unfortunately in this case translates to a bad defense, an average rotation with AAA depth and a lights out bullpen that turns it into 6 inning games. Worst case, if we aren't competitive, we should have some desired players at around the deadline.
Last edited by JP3700; 09-08-2012 at 07:00 PM.
09-08-2012, 06:59 PM #4
Here is what I would do. I would punt. We can't afford to bring in the pitching necessary to win in this league. It will cost too many good young prospects to trade for an ace. I think we trade our MLB assets and shoot for 2014. Terry Ryan has got an eye for talent. The Doumit and Willingham deals were brilliant last winter. Not to mention the under the radar signing of Deduno (might not have a future but overperformed expectations) and Burton were pure genious. My blueprint will assume the interim tag is removed and TR will be able find some of these guys this summer. The blueprint is as follows:
1. Sell Willingham for young pitching prospects- if we have to throw in some filler prospects go ahead and do that. Willinghams value will never be this high. He could be a stud DH for a contender for years to come. The next 2 years of his deal, we will be a doormat in the worst division in baseball. If a team offers a high ceiling OF'er, tell him were to go (hell). If they offer a stud middle infield prospect, then you can listen. But what we really need is some pitching in our mid to lower levels. Getting MLB ready pitching is next to impossible, so you go for some younger studs. The rumors this summer were teams like Cinci and Toronto. Those systems are full of pitching and say we jump at it.
2. Trade Mornie- Getting rid of his salary would be nice, but the goal is to get some more young pitching prospects in the system. Again, goal is 2014. I know he is a Twins Royalty, but so was Cuddyer.
3. Trade Span- I know, trade all three you say? Yes! Span's still an above average Lead off guy and an average fielder. This will allow for Span to move to center and let Mastrianni play left or right, doesn't really matter. The other outfeilder can be a AAAA guy like Carson or someone TR brings in on the cheap. Again, I am of the mind set you need to blow this thing up for the future.
4. Keep Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson in AAA until mid June- I'm not sure how many AB's or innings you need to keep rookie status or to stay under team control for an extra year, but I would make sure they don't use a year in 2013 for these three. Our farm system is starting to turn around and these three are straight dudes.
5. Use the money we save in trades mentioned before to sign a 27 to 28 year old mid rotation type guy- An Edwin Jackson or Shawn Marcum would be a great signing. We need to start building that rotation for 2014. We aren't getting the guys on top, and probably can't afford Marcum, but we need to spend that extra 10-15 mil on a pitcher.
6. DON't TRADE MAUER-this guy is the only thing selling tickets and will still be a crucial aspect to our 2014 coming out party.
7. Draft Appel- This guy shouldn't be that hard to sign. If he doesn't sign for slot where will he go? I know he is a Bor-ass client but he will be the best pitcher in the draft and could be up as soon as 2014, the year we will be vying for the pennant.
8. Hit the waiver wire and hit it hard- Pick up some rejects from other teams and turn them for some young prospects. We need to build that farm system up so that we can keep filling our big league team with quality young players. We went with the Yankee-Red Sox blueprint for awhile (meaning we didn't draft well and we traded a hot prospect for a now need). We need to start using the Small Market blueprint that the Astros are now using. I don't think we are as far off as the Astros and think we could be the Rays of the Central within 2 years.
09-08-2012, 07:17 PM #5
Ryan is gonna keep doin it the Twins Way....that concept from the GMs booth is past his prime.
Id go back to the late 90s version of getting young guys up here to gel together instead of solid vets with no more upside like Willy/Justin/Span.
They love the Doumit/Carroll type bench players who play as much as everyday players (shouldnt).
Dont see any light at end of tunnell as long as Ryan keeps the same Twins approach
09-08-2012, 07:21 PM #6
09-08-2012, 07:25 PM #7
09-08-2012, 08:22 PM #8
Doumit is a dude, Carrol fills a great need as a bench player who can play anywhere and shows leadership in the clubhouse, lets face the fact that he could be Sano and Buxton's father
09-08-2012, 09:00 PM #9-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
09-08-2012, 09:31 PM #10
As far as the rotation, I know Diamond isn't close to a #1 but I just have it stacked that way. As I stated at the end of my original post, I was looking at an Orioles type blueprint. Jason Hammel isn't a #1, nor is Wei-Yin Chen, they're both #3 type starters. I would say Diamond and Villanueva are comparable pitchers as far as effectiveness. I'm hoping Delgado can develop and that Baker can have a similar recovery to Wainwright, struggle a bit early in the season and then find himself by June or so. The #5 spot will be a battle, and of course there will still be that additional depth in AAA. I just don't see the purpose of signing another Pavano type pitcher, I'd rather gamble on a closer and try to shorten games.
I'm not saying this is all going to work, but I'd be okay with this type plan.
Last edited by JP3700; 09-08-2012 at 09:33 PM.
09-08-2012, 10:31 PM #11
Randall Delgado is not for sale. Did we not cover the fact that teams are not willing to trade prospects nowadays...much less a major league ready STARTING PITCHER with high upside. We would have to give up Span, Burton or Perkins, and at least Hicks or Arcia, plus one or two C prospects for him. I would even think about going for a trade like that, but this just will not happen. Teams overvalue pitching close to the Majors.
09-08-2012, 11:20 PM #12
1. Randall Delgado was to be traded for Ryan Dempster (a rental), til Dempster rejected the trade, so he is obviously able to be acquired
2. Jacob Turner (a higher level prospect than Delgado) along with Rob Brantly (a good catching prospect) was traded for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez (most likely a rental), so teams will pull the trigger if it makes sense
3. It makes sense because the Braves will have a void at CF/Leadoff with Bourn leaving and they also don't have any good right handed bullpen arms to get to Venters and Kimbrel, along with the fact they are on a limited budget so the salaries will fit.
4. The Braves are stacked in pitching, where will he pitch? They have Tim Hudson, Paul Maholm, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy coming off Tommy John, Julio Teheran (a higher rated, younger prospect) and 3 other top 10 pitching prospects in their organization at AA or higher.
5. Delgado is coming off a year that he struggled and got demoted to AAA.
It may require Burton instead of Burnett but I think he's able to be acquired for.. It's not that much of a reach
09-09-2012, 12:02 AM #13
BTW, you really backed up your point with data and good points, you would make a great politician JP. You also kind of made me eat my words a little bit. I am going to go take a cold shower and rock back and forth whimpering ever so slightly.
09-09-2012, 12:12 AM #14
09-09-2012, 12:45 AM #15
And thanks , as a previous poster mentioned, I tried to put a lot of thought behind this offseason plan. I wanted it to be as realistic and logical as possible. I didn't want to be another guy that said sign Greinke, Marcum and Jackson or trade Willingham, Span, Morneau and Revere. I wanted to take a good blueprint for success that we can follow in 2013, while still leaving room for rebuilding mid season in case it fails.
Last edited by JP3700; 09-09-2012 at 01:01 AM.
09-09-2012, 01:19 AM #16
1. Sign Two FAs Starting Pitchers+Scott Baker
2. Aggressively trade Morneau (eat salary), Revere, and Willingham next deadline
3. Sign Maicer Izturis
NO CONTRACTS LONGER THAN 3 YEARS!!
A team like this by season's end:
1. Hicks CF
2. Span LF
3. Mauer C
4. Parmelee 1B
5. Doumit DH
6. Arcia RF
7. Plouffe 3B
8. Florimon SS
9. Izturis 2B
3rdC/5th OF Herrmann
Spot Starter/RHP: Cole Devries
Goodbye Swarzak and Burnett
The rotation improves, but Gibson, Bedard, and Baker are question marks. It wouldn't hurt to add a former starter on a minor league contract for some depth. The lineup takes a step back and the bullpen should be fine. Not a contending team and it should be just under .500.
09-09-2012, 02:50 AM #17
09-09-2012, 06:03 AM #18
Try to find another bat for the middle of the order. Find a veteran SP to take a spot in the rotation. Don't trade Morneau or Span this off season. Consider moving Span near the deadline. Morneau keep indefinitely. Pay Baker and Pavano. Let the 147 guys who have started games for the Twins over the last two compete for the other spots in the rotation.
09-09-2012, 08:42 AM #19
09-09-2012, 08:48 AM #20