Thread: Trade Revere, Not Span

Originally Posted by SydneyTwinsFan

Ben ....... gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base

Doesn't this suggest he would be more effective leading off?

No, because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. He'll always run into slumps which trickles down the line up. Also, there will be situations where the lead off hitter needs to come through with runners on.

Let me ask, if it's the 9th inning 2 outs with a runner on second who would you rather see at the plate? Denard or Ben? Needing a bunt to move a runner over, who would you rather see at the plate? To lead off an inning in a 1 run game, who would you rather see at the plate? I can't think of situations where Denard isn't a more ideal hitter. As I mentioned I think they should trade Denard cause he has much more value but the slight difference between speed and defensive range does not make up the gap in ability at the plate. I like Revere, I'm rooting for him to be successful, but I have always thought he has the ceiling of Juan Pierre offensively and is a 4th OF on a winning team. I do agree that Aaron Hicks is the future, I love his upside.

Okay, this year Revere is a better #2 hitter...well, isn't Mauer always batting third. You see some better pitches. As a lead-off guy, they come at him right out of the gate. He has to improve what he looks at tremendously to hold down the lead-off position. Span, you pretty much know what you've got...except that he has now broken down for the second year. Wouldn't you feel better right now having Span sitting on someone else's bench and a solid pitcher in our rotation? Span had more worth during the trade deadline.In the off-season, he is just another player competing against a slew of free agent outfielders and other trade bait. Now you have to ask the worth of Revere as a trading chip compared to Span. And WiIllingham will still be the guy everyone wants.

Trade any Ofer you can for front line SP.

Disagree. Trade Span for pitching, keep Revere as lead off. Slap hitter, but he bats .300+, better OPS, excellent base stealer, fast as hell, great glove, and now an adequate, accurate arm. Plus, kids love him.

Meanwhile, you've got a bunch of good-looking prospects bubbling up through the minors. In the top tier you've got Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Dinkelman, Ramirez, Morales, Ortiz, Rams, Ray...and of course Buxton and Max Kepler on the E-Twins. Friends, the Twins system is loaded with outfielders. Unless those guys can throw curve balls for strikes, some of them will wind up traded for pitching.

All that talent coming up makes Denard Span available for trade. In fact, it practically demands a trade, especially with the Twins going through a penny pinching era.

Originally Posted by Rosterman

Okay, this year Revere is a better #2 hitter...well, isn't Mauer always batting third. You see some better pitches. As a lead-off guy, they come at him right out of the gate. He has to improve what he looks at tremendously to hold down the lead-off position. Span, you pretty much know what you've got...except that he has now broken down for the second year.

So with your theory, Span would be a .350+ hitter with Mauer hitting behind him . You're right about knowing what we have with Span, a .360 OBP lead off hitter that can hit for 40+ doubles, steal 20 bases and play a good center field. And on him "breaking down", he hurt himself hustling for an extra base and making a spectacular catch for his team, he didn't mysteriously break down. He has flaws, mainly his baserunning but people don't point out the times where Ben fails to get a bunt down to move a runner over at crucial times in games. I just don't understand why people are so down on him, he's been a great player for us, and will be a great player for another team, probably next year.

Originally Posted by TK10

Sorry, I meant in terms of personality he reminds me of Hunter. Revere and Hunter are obviously radically different players. I'm bothered by how injury prone Span is, too. If Mauer had missed time because he was scared of the MRI machine Twins Territory would have gone ballistic.

Actually my fault. My mind blanked at that part I guess.

I certainly wouldn't argue that personality trumps talent but I do think it matters. This is a team badly in need of some exuberance and leadership. You have a lot of really good guys on this roster but those same guys are very low key and quiet.

In terms of personality, I really like Span's competitive edge and he is possibly the 'nicest' guy on the team. Revere is just too happy go lucky. Revere's defense is a little overrated. He only has a .6 dWar. Ben doesn't even eclipse a .700 OPS.

I know Span doesn't make a ton of money but what if TR says to himself: "I can put Revere in center and not lose much and then if I flip Morneau and Span $20 million comes off the books and I can make a sincere run at Greinke." Would you essentially trade Morneau and Span for Greinke? I'm not a great sabermetrics mind (my two-year old probably gets sabermetrics better than I do) but I think at first blush I'd make that trade.

Originally Posted by TK10

I know Span doesn't make a ton of money but what if TR says to himself: "I can put Revere in center and not lose much and then if I flip Morneau and Span $20 million comes off the books and I can make a sincere run at Greinke." Would you essentially trade Morneau and Span for Greinke? I'm not a great sabermetrics mind (my two-year old probably gets sabermetrics better than I do) but I think at first blush I'd make that trade.

The more I've thought about it, the less I like Grienke.

#1. His numbers are no longer elite. An ERA a little under 4 and a little under a K per inning is elite compared to this squad... but relative to the money and years a 28 year old pitcher who has been in the majors since 2004... I don't like that risk.

#2. If he signs with the Twins it means we overpaid. By a mile.

#3 Why would he want to sign here? It makes little sense for a pitcher who will write his own ticket in free agency to pick a team that lost 90+games 2 years running... Hell if he signed here I think it would be a sign that he has no competitive spirit... and would rather just stay out of big pressure games.

The Twins need to make a serious run at fixing this rotation... but I don't think it should be Grienke.

In terms of return Span will probably bring a B prospect, Revere would bring very little until he proves himself again next year Revere will be viewed as a Juan Pierre, value, but not going to bring a good pitching prospect in return. Span could be bring more, but paired with a Parmalee could bring a solid B or more from the clubs looking for hitting (read Tampa Bay and Seattle). Oakland may also fit in this class, but they look more solid than the prior two clubs.
FA pitchers are going to be expensive. I expect New York and Boston to both be looking among other clubs. This will probably make the market price higher than the Twins or other small to mid market teams will want to pay, so trades will be the only way.
Span is due back in mid September and I hope he finishes well, otherwise the Twins will be left with the choice of trading Willingham for pitching or waiting until spring training, that would not be a good way to go.

I've always thought that because of his anxiety disorder this market might be ideal for him. I would think NY or Boston might eat him alive. Somebody else brought up Marcum maybe he'd be a better fit than Greinke. I think I'm on an island with this one but I'd try to leverage either Span or Morneau in a deal for Vogelsong from the Giants. SF has needs thanks to the Melky debacle and the fact that Belt is still a question mark.

A. Of the players mentioned... Span... Revere... Hicks... Arcia... Only one has proven himself. That is Span. I got a good gut feeling about Arcia... My gut says he will be special but until he does it in the majors we can't really boot Span or Revere out... Hicks finally had a encouraging year.... I really hope that continues and he is a monster but he's hasn't proven anything yet... I'm hopeful... Revere has done a great job and he's a freeking ballplayer but he's young and needs to continue doing it... He has earned the right to keep doing it. Span is the only one that has proven anything.

B. Saying Span has more power is like saying the 5-3 guy is taller than the 5-1 guy. Yeah he's taller but he ain't tall and a young 5-1 guy has the chance to grow to 5-3 or 5-6. You can't say it won't happen and you can't say it will.

C. I keep reading this Juan Pierre Comp and it always seems to be phrased in a negative way. Why is it negative? What is wrong with Juan Pierre. 12 year career... 9 seasons of 600 AB's... .296 career average... 586 stolen bases. He was traded in 2005 for 3 pitchers including Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto who was the Cubs Minor league pitcher of the year in 2004. He's been a starter almost his entire career. The only exception was his last two years with the Dodgers after they acquired Manny. If Ben Revere turns out to be a Juan Pierre. I'd be thrilled and if he does... Hicks and Arcia will have to do extremely well to take his spot.

D. Ben is my favorite Twins player right now and I've always liked Span. I would still trade both of them for pitching. We need pitching.

Originally Posted by ericchri

Trade both. One this offseason and one at next year's deadline. Hicks just profiles as a more complete player than either of those two if he continues to live up to his potential, such that I think he makes a better CF than either. Leave the corners for the guys who can flat-out hit (Willingham, Arcia). Hicks looks to be a better base-stealer with more pop than Span, more plate discipline and a better arm than Revere. Not really inferior in anything to either of them. Again, assuming he continues the play he finally showed this year. Of course he's still only played at AA, so he could flame out, but then we just wait for Buxton while filling in with Benson/Mastroianni.

Boom. Very true. I do actually think that a Span-Benson-Hicks outfield would be optimal, but I don't want both Willingham and Arcia to be traded. Clearly there are big questions about Benson now anyway. A Willingham-Revere-Hicks outfield is pretty good (with Arcia DHing quite a bit, but also Willingham as well). I do think that trading Willingham at the deadline is a good option if (assuming Span or Revere is traded) if if all three of Benson, Hicks, and Arcia are ready. I would love to see 2013 end with a "youth movement."

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

A. Of the players mentioned... Span... Revere... Hicks... Arcia... Only one has proven himself. That is Span. I got a good gut feeling about Arcia... My gut says he will be special but until he does it in the majors we can't really boot Span or Revere out... Hicks finally had a encouraging year.... I really hope that continues and he is a monster but he's hasn't proven anything yet... I'm hopeful... Revere has done a great job and he's a freeking ballplayer but he's young and needs to continue doing it... He has earned the right to keep doing it. Span is the only one that has proven anything.

B. Saying Span has more power is like saying the 5-3 guy is taller than the 5-1 guy. Yeah he's taller but he ain't tall and a young 5-1 guy has the chance to grow to 5-3 or 5-6. You can't say it won't happen and you can't say it will.

C. I keep reading this Juan Pierre Comp and it always seems to be phrased in a negative way. Why is it negative? What is wrong with Juan Pierre. 12 year career... 9 seasons of 600 AB's... .296 career average... 586 stolen bases. He was traded in 2005 for 3 pitchers including Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto who was the Cubs Minor league pitcher of the year in 2004. He's been a starter almost his entire career. The only exception was his last two years with the Dodgers after they acquired Manny. If Ben Revere turns out to be a Juan Pierre. I'd be thrilled and if he does... Hicks and Arcia will have to do extremely well to take his spot.

D. Ben is my favorite Twins player right now and I've always liked Span. I would still trade both of them for pitching. We need pitching.

Another great post. I agree with all of it and am equally perplexed by the Juan Pierre comp being a negative thing . . .

The best case scenario, in my view, is getting a flip-flop of Willingham and Revere defensively. And keeping all three OFs until it is truly time for Hicks and Arcia (and hopefully Benson). That time is not here quite yet. I am scared, however, that Span will be traded, Morneau kept, and Parmelee made into a right fielder. So preposterous. Parmelee has no future in the OF.

Originally Posted by Twins Twerp

Such as getting caught leaning off of 1st base 20 times a season ala span?

Baseball Reference has Span getting picked off 4 times in 2011. Revere 6. Revere had about 1.5 times as many opportunities. Not sure if those are accurate. I think Span's pickoffs happened in a bunch that made them stand out more. For the record, this year Revere "leads" 4 pickoffs to 3 (while also stealing more than twice as many and getting caught only about the same).

Since Revere is a cheaper option and will be under team control for a longer period, it seems like he will be around longer. Span is getting older and his performance will start to go the wrong way in the coming years. Hicks will be up by the end of next season to take over an outfield spot.

I have a feeling Denard's trade vaue isn't as high as it once was. He is looking like a player who is a little fragile (I know he can't help the concussion issue). I think Revere is only going to get better and you can't teach speed. He should be the CF anyway, even with a healthy Span.

Originally Posted by The Greatest Poster Alive

Definitely overlooked Hicks. He has actually come along pretty nicely now that I checked his stats this year in AA. His MLB ETA would coincide pretty nicely with the end of Denard's contract. Still don't understand the rush to trade this guy unless a legitimate piece to the future is offered. Trading him for a B or lower prospect just doesn't make sense to me.

I'm not against trading him for a B prospect if the team also pulls in a raw guy with good upside in the low minors. It all depends on the package. If it's only a B prospect, no thanks. I'd pass. The team doesn't need to trade Denard but it is a good idea considering the dearth of pitching in the system.