09-04-2012, 04:42 PM #21
09-04-2012, 05:22 PM #22
Parmelee will be in the lineup next year. If he's not, then we will know something is wrong with the organization and that they've lost their mind. The question is, who do we move to get him in the lineup?
The best move IMO is to move Span and Willingham in a package, as they have the most trade value. Two targets that make sense are the Braves and Phillies. The Braves have a world series caliber team, will have holes in both LF and CF, have a limited budget, and have a crazy amount of starting pitching. The Phillies want to also compete for a world series while staying under the luxury tax. This also might drive up the return if both teams are trying to acquire our 2 players.
It's unrealistic to think that we will ever sign an ace so we need to either draft or trade for a possible ace. In these two trades I would be looking for either a package that started with Jesse Biddle of the Phillies or Julio Teheran of the Braves. A proposed trade I thought of would be Willingham, Span, and Burton for Teheran and Delgado. The Braves need a RH set up man as well and we'd get a possible 1 and 2 for 10 years.
Obviously we move Revere to CF, Parm stays at RF to start the season and to fill Willingham's power void we go sign Jonny Gomes. Take a look at Gomes' numbers this year compared to Willingham's. If they had equal ABs, they would be almost identical and he will be cheaper. Hicks, Arcia, Benson and Herrmann start at AAA and depending on where they are, and also where the team is, by around the trade deadline we can move 2 of the 3, between Morneau, Doumit or Gomes.
Add in a couple good moves in the offseason and we can stay competitive in 2013 and still be building for the future.
09-04-2012, 05:28 PM #23
that the Pohlads are unwilling or unable to do both
that, a buyer exists who wants Morneau and will pay 14m for him.
that the Pohlads wouldn't do exactly what you say if they found a buyer, ie. save the money.
JR has already indicated he thinks pitching market is "Thin."
Wins are wins. They can come from good hitting, pitching, or fielding.
Morneau currently holds the 14th best wOBA of 1BS in baseball (min 400 PAs). His wRC is over 100, meaning after positional adjustment, he is producing runs at a better than average clip. Know who is behind him? Former hot prospects Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, and Ike Davis. Teams who miss a good 1b in the middle of their lineup don't often win. Even if he is a little overpaid for his position.
09-04-2012, 09:51 PM #24
Clearly it means going back and forth to AAA next season with stops at the big leagues when he's on his best roll only to sit on the bench for weeks on end and then a callup two weeks too late with another case of DL mismanagement.
I mean,****, guy only had to OPS well over 1.000 to get a look again. I'm sure the rope he's given will be plenty short.
09-04-2012, 10:24 PM #25
09-04-2012, 11:30 PM #26
But, Ryan recently remarked that he expects Morneau to return to his normal numbers next year and indicated the Big Canadian would be part of team foundation next year.
09-05-2012, 01:11 AM #27
09-05-2012, 02:18 AM #28
If we're going to trade Morneau, we need to maximize his value (or at least try), and that means trading him at the 13 deadline (if need be). Moreneau's production isn't as replaceable as Span's, especially if Morneau returns to form (or even continues his second half numbers).
It is pollyannish to believe that Morneau is the most easily expendable part. He's simply the most undesirable part (contract/production) at this point, but that will probably change in 2013.
09-05-2012, 02:49 AM #29
Folks, please understand Parmelee is NOT a substitute for Willingham or Doumitt
Willingham is Right Handed and Doumit is a Switch Hitter. Parmelee hits Left Handed and the Twins need a convincing threat the right side.
Span or Morneau have to go for him to get playing time. And I for one dread an OF consisting of Parmelee, Wllingham and Revere. This would be a bad defensive OF.
09-05-2012, 03:16 AM #30
Did I miss anything? I'm surprised that nobody is saying "Trade Parmalee!" If he has a hot September, and last night's game seems to be adding to that probability, he will have more value in the offseason than Morneau. As stated above, Morneau has the LEAST trade value, right now.
Morneau, and especially Willingham will have value next June and July before the trading deadline.
I bet that the Twins will trade one or more high level position/outfield prospects for high level pitchiing prospects this winter, and they will try to pick up one or two starters via free agency.
That will be plan A, to rebuild the starting pitching and stand pat with the present offense.
If/when Plan A, fails, Plan B will be to deal Willingham and Morneau next season.
09-05-2012, 09:58 AM #31
Using Liriano as an example is ridiculous. First, that trade was stupid. Second, Morneau has more value than Liriano. Morneau's numbers are good this year and he has been healthy most of the year. .800+ OPS and 25 homers is going to be appealing to a lot of teams in the AL who need 1B/DH types.
The treatment of RF this year has been bizarre from start to finish.
The Twins were at their best this year when Span and Revere were each around .350-.360 OBP at the top of the order (and Plouffe was healthy and hitting). It was as though they understood, for once, that getting on base is the key to offensive success. Now take out Span and sub in a MI with a .320 OBP (at best) next year . . .
09-05-2012, 10:48 AM #32
As much as I hate to say it, I think trading Willingham is the best option for the Twins. First of all, his value will never be higher, he's essentially having a career year and is signed for cheap for the next 2 years. The problem is, this is his first 30+ HR season, he'll be 34 next season. Trading him for the best package we can and having Parm play LF and a little 1B.
09-05-2012, 10:55 AM #33
Parmelee finishing strong makes Justin Morneau available for trade. I don't agree with insulting Morneau, who is a class act. The business of baseball dictates trades and promotions. Twins need to reload with young talent, even if Parm is not another Morneau, it's gotta happen pretty soon.
09-05-2012, 11:16 AM #34
There is a reason the Twins are where they are--their best players all have weakness in the trade market--Morneau with a big contract and concussion history, Span with injuries, Revere with no arm, Josh with no defense and an aging guy. TR needs to put all of them out there and see what he gets offered. No way, we know who will bring the most in Middle IF or pitching or prospects.
09-05-2012, 12:59 PM #35
TR has a pretty conservative trade reputation, so I don't know what to expect. He might stand pat, or do something otherwise underwhelming to most fans. (Bill Smith, on the other hand, would have made a major move of dubious quality.)
Unless a top starter or starting prospect is available for Span, Morneau, or Willingham (and that's far from clear), I'd be inclined to agree. (In my ideal "standing pat" scenario, Revere would get shifted to 4th outfielder / pinch runner / defensive replacement, barring injury, and everyone below him in the lineup would move up a spot.)
09-05-2012, 02:05 PM #36
Morneau will fetch far more at the deadline in 2013 because he'll be farther away from the concussion and have a chance to reemerge as an elite hitter. We'd be selling very low on Morneau in the offseason.
09-05-2012, 02:25 PM #37
09-05-2012, 02:28 PM #38
09-05-2012, 04:34 PM #39
09-05-2012, 04:42 PM #40
Here is what we have said so far:
Trade them all.
Dump them immediately.
Trade them one at a time over the next year.
Demand top prospects.
Just get rid of the contracts with no return.
Start the OF prospects next season.
Leave the OF prospects in the minors for more seasoning.
Play Parmelee in the OF.
Play Parmelee at 1B.
Who cares about Parmelee for next season.
I think one thing is certain. No matter what the FO does this winter it will be wrong to a significant portion of the fanbase and we'll be hearing about this for the next 10 years.