08-31-2012, 09:41 AM #1
Justin Morneau was not moved at the trade deadline. We can can deduce one of two things: the packages offered to the Twins were deemed no strong enough or the Twins feel that Morneau could be a part of their short term/long term future.
For the sake of this thread, let's assume you are the Twins GM and you would like to extend Morneau. How many years and dollars would you be willing to go. Keep in mind what his market value may currently be and that he is a free agent at the end of next year. You aren't interested in trading him at this time.
I actually believe that Morneau should stay with the team, and that he is back to being an above-average to great overall 1B. I would offer this:
Tear up current contract. Offer 2 yrs / $22 million, with a third year team option of $16 mil, or an option that could be mutual if cetain criteria are met (say PA or games played). I could see him being very productive into his well into his 30's. This could give him a little more security, and gives the Twins another chance to rework it if he is awesome during the next 2 years.
What are your thoughts?
08-31-2012, 09:48 AM #2
Too much on the option year. If Willingham is on a 3/21 deal, I would have a hard time offering more than 3/30 for Morneau, based on his stats this year in comparison (even given that the first half sucked and he has been better recently). That includes a premium for being a fan favorite. And I see him transitioning more to a DH role in the future - I would tap Parmelee as my 1B in the near future, with Mauer playing there intermittantly.
08-31-2012, 09:59 AM #3
I don't think Morneau and his agent would agree to tear up next year's deal.
08-31-2012, 10:22 AM #4
I thnk Justin is worth more to the Twins than to any other team. Twins needs power hitting too. I would not extend him till next June. See where
we are at and he is at. If he is back to his old self. Probably go 15m per year for 2 to 4 years.
08-31-2012, 10:40 AM #5
08-31-2012, 11:35 PM #6
First thing - according to the CBA, I believe they have to offer a deal of $11 million after 2013. I agree that Morneau could be great again. I think he's more likely to be traded at the 2013 deadline, especially because he's risky and the Twins aren't contending.
However - if they were to extend him, I'd say give him a 1 year deal at $11 million. Post-2014, if he's been healthy and raking for 2+ (almost 3) years, then you give him Willingham money. He'd be about 32 at that point, I think.
09-01-2012, 11:03 AM #7
09-01-2012, 01:00 PM #8
Based on those Guidlines... I'm obviously convinced (I'm hopeful yet... I don't know) that All-Star Justin Morneau is back and mashing the ball or without question going to be mashing the ball.
I would offer him 11 million for 2014. Team Option for 2015.
Without the guidelines... I'm thinking about his trade value throughout his current contract. If I sense an uptick in trade value at any point of discussions with other teams... From the off-season through April, May, June of 2013... I make the deal.
I move him in July for the best offer. Whatever that is.
If Justin Has a healthy and productive 2013. With his contract coming off the books and the Twins having paid a majority of it. He could be a decent rental for a team at the trade deadline next year.
I'm moving him in July for the best offer. Pitching in return... I look to the sky and ask for.
09-01-2012, 01:32 PM #9
Lots of questions. Is Parmelee a cheaper alternative. How much first does Mauer play. Is Willingham suited to be the DH more in 2013 and especially 2014. Will you get something nice in a package for Morneau? Remember, you pretty much have to offer Morneau arbitration or let him walk as a free agent. If you trade him, you can always sign him back for less if there are few takers.
09-01-2012, 03:32 PM #10
There are two more significant questions: how much faith do you have that Morneau will stay healthy? How much faith do GMs have that Morneau will stay healthy?
Everyone is acting like it is a foregone conclusion that his health issues are behind him. I can't help but think that they still play a significant role in any return for him and should still lead to a cautious approach by the Twins. You have to assign some degree of risk -- and I think that it is higher than for the average 31 year old player.
It's like a ticking time bomb.
09-01-2012, 04:38 PM #11
Extremely tough call on what to do with Morneau.
His future possibilities range from "return to MVP form as one of the league's most feared hitters" to "Bonk on melon, career over". So no matter what you do, there's a decent-sized risk you'll regret it.
I'd tend to keep him because I think it's hard to find guys as good as Justin can be, but I'd certainly understand it if we didn't.
09-01-2012, 07:17 PM #12
09-01-2012, 07:22 PM #13
I think that the team needs to trade either Morneau or Parmelee. Considering out dire pitching needs and that mauer doumit and Willingham will take up a lot of 1b/dh time
09-01-2012, 07:48 PM #14