Thread: Article: Mauer's Not Going Anywhere

And when you discuss a position player all you bring up Nelson is crappy OPS and then have the nerve to rip on WAR as a good indicator of performance. WAR is a much better indicator ask Keith Law for a not super crazy advanced stat to judge value.

Originally Posted by Curt

Originally Posted by jokin

The positional adjustments are:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH

From baseball-reference.com:

To compute a player's Positional adjustment Runs, we add together for each non-pitching position: Position multiplier (from above) × innings played at position / 1,350 Innings. For players who are only pitchers this is Pitcher Positional Adjustment (from below) × (PA/4) / 150.

It looks to me like the positional adjustments are proportional to the amount of time played at each position.

Baseball Reference has his WAR at 2.6, not 3.8.

Originally Posted by SeanS7921

And when you discuss a position player all you bring up Nelson is crappy OPS and then have the nerve to rip on WAR as a good indicator of performance. WAR is a much better indicator ask Keith Law for a not super crazy advanced stat to judge value.

Let me ask you this: do you trust UZR in partial-season samples? If you do, you're not using it right. If not, what reason is there to trust fWAR – a metric heavily influenced by UZR – in partial season samples?

Also, focusing on any numbers he's posting this season overlooks the realities of his situation that are going to weigh heavily on any general manager's mind, namely the significant durability issues.

Also, does the fact that Mauer will catch only ~75 games this year have more to do with the fact that the Twins are out of contention, or the fact that the last time he caught 100-plus games he broke down? I don't think you can say one or the other with confidence.

I think the reason that Mauer is DH'ing has to do with the fact that the primary DH can play catcher and Mauer won't get beat up as much. If the Twins had a Kubel type player at DH and were winning then I would expect to see Mauer behind the plate more.

The only thing that scares me about Mauer is that the end of the contract will likely be a poor value. But that's true of pretty much all of the mega contracts that get signed. At some point you have to commit money to stars.

For anyone who hasn't read it yet, a great article on the Mauer contract by one of my favorite writers:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/37609880

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Originally Posted by SeanS7921

And when you discuss a position player all you bring up Nelson is crappy OPS and then have the nerve to rip on WAR as a good indicator of performance. WAR is a much better indicator ask Keith Law for a not super crazy advanced stat to judge value.

Let me ask you this: do you trust UZR in partial-season samples? If you do, you're not using it right. If not, what reason is there to trust fWAR – a metric heavily influenced by UZR – in partial season samples?

Also, focusing on any numbers he's posting this season overlooks the realities of his situation that are going to weigh heavily on any general manager's mind, namely the significant durability issues.

Also, does the fact that Mauer will catch only ~75 games this year have more to do with the fact that the Twins are out of contention, or the fact that the last time he caught 100-plus games he broke down? I don't think you can say one or the other with confidence.

I think it's even worse than that. Unless I'm mistaken and it's changed, UZR doesn't even attempt to assign a defensive value to catchers. It's too hard. So fWAR just gives all catchers the same number generic UZR number to use in it's WAR calculations.

Few serious saber folks pay much attention to WAR any more. It's on it's way to joining Win Shares in history's junkpile of attempts at an "uberstat."

Originally Posted by USAFChief

I think it's even worse than that. Unless I'm mistaken and it's changed, UZR doesn't even attempt to assign a defensive value to catchers. It's too hard. So fWAR just gives all catchers the same number generic UZR number to use in it's WAR calculations.

Wouldn't it be surprising if the person who (has claimed he) knows the most about WAR on this site has that wrong? Maybe, maybe not.

Originally Posted by Curt

It looks to me like the positional adjustments are proportional to the amount of time played at each position.

I was hoping your first response (saying it was surprising that the formula didn't take that into account) was kind of sarcastic . Maybe it was. That you have had to go back to it because it didn't sink in is kind of amusing to me. And kind of sad. I'm not really surprised that presenting actual facts has been virtually unacknowledged, though.

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by Curt

Originally Posted by jokin

The positional adjustments are:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH

From baseball-reference.com:

To compute a player's Positional adjustment Runs, we add together for each non-pitching position: Position multiplier (from above) × innings played at position / 1,350 Innings. For players who are only pitchers this is Pitcher Positional Adjustment (from below) × (PA/4) / 150.

It looks to me like the positional adjustments are proportional to the amount of time played at each position.

Baseball Reference has his WAR at 2.6, not 3.8.

FanGraphs does a similar apportionment:

The position adjustments are then scaled to match the games played at each position for a particular player. This way, players that spend time at multiple positions get a hybrid adjustment based on their playing time at the respective spots.

Originally Posted by CDog

Originally Posted by Curt

It looks to me like the positional adjustments are proportional to the amount of time played at each position.

I was hoping your first response (saying it was surprising that the formula didn't take that into account) was kind of sarcastic . Maybe it was. That you have had to go back to it because it didn't sink in is kind of amusing to me. And kind of sad. I'm not really surprised that presenting actual facts has been virtually unacknowledged, though.

What?

Originally Posted by Curt

Originally Posted by jokin

Originally Posted by Curt

Originally Posted by jokin

The positional adjustments are:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH

From baseball-reference.com:

To compute a player's Positional adjustment Runs, we add together for each non-pitching position: Position multiplier (from above) × innings played at position / 1,350 Innings. For players who are only pitchers this is Pitcher Positional Adjustment (from below) × (PA/4) / 150.

It looks to me like the positional adjustments are proportional to the amount of time played at each position.

Baseball Reference has his WAR at 2.6, not 3.8.

FanGraphs does a similar apportionment:

The position adjustments are then scaled to match the games played at each position for a particular player. This way, players that spend time at multiple positions get a hybrid adjustment based on their playing time at the respective spots.

Except that Fangraphs ranks Mauer #13 in American League WAR rankings, while Baseball Reference rates him as #34 overall. Mauer's slash numbers are very, very pedestrian-to-mediocre as a non-catcher (DH/1B/PH): 268/356/364, which lends one to think that FG overweights his C positional adjustment in their valuation model.

Originally Posted by Curt

What?

Just an apparently opaque attempt to say, "Nice job."

Originally Posted by CDog

Originally Posted by USAFChief

I think it's even worse than that. Unless I'm mistaken and it's changed, UZR doesn't even attempt to assign a defensive value to catchers. It's too hard. So fWAR just gives all catchers the same number generic UZR number to use in it's WAR calculations.

Wouldn't it be surprising if the person who (has claimed he) knows the most about WAR on this site has that wrong? Maybe, maybe not.

I stand corrected.

Fangraphs does not use UZR to calculate a catcher's fWAR. It can't, since there still is no UZR data compiled for catchers.

However, they have changed their methodology. In place of the UZR they use for every other defensive position, they substitute "Stolen Base Runs Runs Saved" (a DRS methodology that attempts to give credit/blame to catchers and pitchers for stolen base attempts) and "Runs saved from Pass Pitches" (an attempt to use an algorithm to determine which catchers are best at blocking balls in the dirt).

So...yes. fWAR does not include UZR data for catchers. It has, however, been modified since I last looked into it to include some estimates of 2 aspects of catcher defense.

You can decide for yourself if two estimators, of two parts of catcher defense, is a valid way to determine who's the most valuable players in MLB.

Few serious saber folks pay much attention to WAR any more. It's on it's way to joining Win Shares in history's junkpile of attempts at an "uberstat."- USAFChief
Well maybe saber nerds hate it now because its mainstream. Its an accepted stat, ESPN just added it to its stats, that's huge. Its everywhere and effective.

Um... "glerb."