Thread: Extend high-upside "prospect" Morneau today?

Originally Posted by DPJ

Originally Posted by mk

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

40 HR, 100BB and stays healthy every season...that has no value at all.

Not saying that doesn't have any value, of course it does, just trying to put perspective on where the market is. Quality first basemen, even ones with flaws, make a lot of money.

Dunn and Rios are overpaid but they're having comeback years and, voila the White Sox are back in first place.

It is easy to spend some one else's money but here everyone wants to save the Pohlad's money for some reason.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Dunn and Rios are overpaid but they're having comeback years and, voila the White Sox are back in first place.

It is easy to spend some one else's money but here everyone wants to save the Pohlad's money for some reason.

If the Pohlads want to boost their payroll by $20 million a year I'd have no problem with that. But they won't, so if I want to see the Twins return to relevance they'll need to spend their money more wisely than they have recently.

White Sox fans don't worry as much about payroll because the Sox are willing to go after players like Dunn and Rios.

I want this franchise to make decisions based on what is best for their chances of success at playing BASEBALL not on PR reasons. In my opinion, considering PR factors has been part of this team's troubles.

If extending or re-signing Morneau makes sense because he is the best player available for the money (and significantly better than a lower cost player), then fine, do it. But do it because it makes baseball sense.

Fans will adjust -- as long as the TEAM wins. Fans would adjust if Mauer left town -- as long as the TEAM wins. Fans know that players come and go -- but they are generally fans of the TEAM.

Let decisions be made on creating a baseball TEAM that can compete with the BEST in mlb and everything will be okay. Making decisions based on players' PR or marketing value is the eventual road to ruination.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

Originally Posted by mk

I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

Morneau in his MVP season was a 3.5 WAR guy. same in 2009. In 2010 he was a 5 win guy before he got hurt. last season he was below replacement level, this season he has been 1.1 WAR player or so. Might finish with 1.5 Last season in 21 games of every day play Parmelee was an 1.3 WAR player. Also in Rochester he proved sustained success if he plays every day.

So it is ridiculous to pay someone 14 million to get the same level of production as you get from a minimum wage guy, if you have as many holes as the Twins do. A $14 million a year first baseman is a luxury for a team who have lost 99 and is on pace for 95, two years in a row.
They Twins need pitching. Morneau and his $ relief will be able to do that. And there is a ready replacement in line.

As far as Dunn goes, the White Sox have been handing out some really awful contracts (and Dunn is not alone). Why should the Twins do that?

Morneau and his $15M contract isn't the reason the Twins are going to lose 90+ games this year, it's the $16M for Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis. I'd guess that comparing the WAR for Morneau to those guys makes Morneau's $15M look like a steal.

Also, it's no sure thing that your're going to get the same production between Parmelee and Morneau. Parmelee 1.3WAR from 2011 is nice, but he also played quite a bit to begin 2012 (27 of the first 36 games). I don't know what his WAR was but he hit .179/.250/.262 striking out in nearly 23% of his plate appearances. For the record, based on his 50+ games at AAA in 2012 I think Parmelee deserves a chance to play and could really help the Twins, but so can Morneau even at $15M.

If you pay 7 million to get a better prospect back when to trade Morneau then you will have 12.5 million in sunk costs next year. That is close to 15% of the payroll. Also for the forum people who are looking at this for the year, look only at the last two months of Morneau producton. He may get more than 8 - 10 million a year after next year, but if you cannot get him to sign a reasonable extention, by all means trade him. He is in late prime and not over the hill for the next two years, so a three year contract seems about right.
It will cost over 12 mil to offer him arbitration at the end of next year and he might take that. That to me does not seem to be a good use of money, otherwise he walks at the end of next year and the twins get nothing in return. Market has changed, rules have changed, The players helped change the CBA to make the Tampa Bay model less attractive. Note the changes.

Originally Posted by kab21

Unless something changed in the last CBA you need to let a player hit FA if you want to pay him <80% of his previous contract (yearly value). That means that you must extend him at around 11M/yr.

This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

Im still about trying to buy low & deal Justin to TOR (home country boy) for Ricky Romero. Ricky has been horrible, no question, but to get an ace/solid #2 type....you gotta take chances. Even the top level pitchers have down years.
Control has been his problem this year, but getting him to a pitchers park & out of a hitters park could be part of what turns him around. He's a massive groundball guy (unlike the supposed groundballer Blackburn) also & could possibly be helped by getting off the Rogers Ctr's version of its field turf

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

Im still about trying to buy low & deal Justin to TOR (home country boy) for Ricky Romero. Ricky has been horrible, no question, but to get an ace/solid #2 type....you gotta take chances. Even the top level pitchers have down years.
Control has been his problem this year, but getting him to a pitchers park & out of a hitters park could be part of what turns him around. He's a massive groundball guy (unlike the supposed groundballer Blackburn) also & could possibly be helped by getting off the Rogers Ctr's version of its field turf

Most of the time - "buy lows" are low for a reason. I think you're vastly underrating the value of pitching in general and specifically of Romero. Morneau is not going to be enough to get that deal done.

Originally Posted by BeefMaster

This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

It applies to arbitration cases but it also applies contract extensions (at least under the old CBA).

Morneau is one of my favorite Twins and it saddens me to see how things have gone for him (, and this goes double so for what I'm about to say (though great to see him on the mend).

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect? What we do know is that he is not worth $15M do

The irony here, and maybe the missed point, is that I actually believe the way Parmelee is playing and their comparable salaries, you're likely to get more for him than Morneau.

In my opinion, if you can trade Morneau for a SP prospect and shed $15M, you do it; but I really don't see the Twins getting an offer like that. It's a no-brainer. I'd say the exact same thing is true of Parmelee. However, I don't think he's worth that either and thus no way a player making $15M can be either with the track record of injuries Morneau has and the fact that while he's hitting great, he's really not worth $15 at 1B.

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by BeefMaster

This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

It applies to arbitration cases but it also applies contract extensions (at least under the old CBA).

Can anybody with a solid grasp of the new CBA clarify this for us? Would we be allowed to offer Morneau, say, half of what he makes now?

Originally Posted by Alex

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

Originally Posted by 70charger

Originally Posted by Alex

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

That's fair I guess, and based on reports the last few hours we may have missed a one-time chance with the Dodgers. I'd be very curious to know what they were offering, but really, even if it was just taking his contract it should have been worth considering.

Originally Posted by Alex

Originally Posted by 70charger

Originally Posted by Alex

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

That's fair I guess, and based on reports the last few hours we may have missed a one-time chance with the Dodgers. I'd be very curious to know what they were offering, but really, even if it was just taking his contract it should have been worth considering.

Dodger wanted to make the playoffs and needed a productive firstbaseman. Red Sox made the deal so if the Dodgers got Gonzales, they also had to take the bad contracts of Beckett and Crawford. According to ESPN the Red Sox got Loony and 4 prosects including the Dodgers #2, and #3 according to preseason Baseball America. The Dodgers also got according to reports 12 mil. If these pitchers are good, this was a great deal for the Red Sox, removing there past mistakes and giving them money for FA this fall. This just opens another door for the twins as the Red Sox will need a firstbasemen this winter. They will also have the money to spend.

the new CBA is here - http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?o...cbas&Itemid=48

On pages 12-16 they talk about maximum reduction of a player's salary and they don't distinguish between veterans and those with <6 yrs of service. It's everyone. the smallest extension that Morneau can be offered is around 11M/yr.

Imo - you just let Morneau play out the contract. there's a chance that you might be able to land a decent prospect at the deadline and there's even a chance that he performs good enough to make a qualifying offer for. I'm a big fan of Morneau and short contracts are not an issue for the Twins currently. I'm really scared that the Twins are going to overpay for a mediocre 30+ yr old starter.

Originally Posted by kab21

the new CBA is here - http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?o...cbas&Itemid=48

On pages 12-16 they talk about maximum reduction of a player's salary and they don't distinguish between veterans and those with <6 yrs of service. It's everyone. the smallest extension that Morneau can be offered is around 11M/yr.

Imo - you just let Morneau play out the contract. there's a chance that you might be able to land a decent prospect at the deadline and there's even a chance that he performs good enough to make a qualifying offer for. I'm a big fan of Morneau and short contracts are not an issue for the Twins currently. I'm really scared that the Twins are going to overpay for a mediocre 30+ yr old starter.

If they really wanted to do it, they could renegotiate Morneau's contract for 2013 at $11m and then put him at, say, $9m for two more years. It's possible but it would require some interesting negotiation.

That might be possible or it might not. Even if it was Morneau shouldn't be locked up for 4 years (3 yr ext). go yr to yr with vesting options so you don't end up with a 10M long-term cheerleader.

[QUOTE=beckmt;49389][QUOTE=Alex;49386][QUOTE=70charger;49384]

Originally Posted by Alex

Dodger wanted to make the playoffs and needed a productive firstbaseman. Red Sox made the deal so if the Dodgers got Gonzales, they also had to take the bad contracts of Beckett and Crawford. According to ESPN the Red Sox got Loony and 4 prosects including the Dodgers #2, and #3 according to preseason Baseball America. The Dodgers also got according to reports 12 mil. If these pitchers are good, this was a great deal for the Red Sox, removing there past mistakes and giving them money for FA this fall. This just opens another door for the twins as the Red Sox will need a firstbasemen this winter. They will also have the money to spend.

Somehow I don't see the Sox getting rid of one contract like that for another, even if it's only a year, and then giving up prospects in addition. Boston got a great deal here, and my point was the Twins missed out, as reports say they were contacted again this week about Morneau by LA.

It may not be the Twins' fault that they missed out on this deal. Morneau probably went on waivers, but the Dodgers were likely blocked by another team. Of course, there's no way to know this for sure. Maybe Terry Ryan just didn't like what the Dodgers had on offer.