Thread: Mackey: Diamond Has Been Good, But Let's Not Get Carried Away

I remember threads like this about Nick Blackburn 3 years ago (at BYTO). Diamond is a nice guy to have to fill out your rotation but my highest expectations are that he can be a 4.00 ERA guy for the Twins.

Just to show how delusional some are

Deduno may be able to be a #4 or a #5.

Deduno has 0% chance of being a capable MLB starter. He has more BB's than K's this year. It's a recipe for disaster if he's considered for anything other than Rochester's rotation next year.

With Diamond and Deduno... The odds are against them both a bit. I won't argue that... However... Doesn't anyone want to wait until they actually fail.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

With Diamond and Deduno... The odds are against them both a bit. I won't argue that... However... Doesn't anyone want to wait until they actually fail.

Diamond and Deduno are nothing alike. Deduno is failing constantly. His 3.33 ERA has been helped by extraordinary luck. He has a 1.59 WHIP for those of you that don't like to use any of the complicated stats. There are baserunners out there everywhere and it's a miracle that he's pitching better than Blackburn.

I don't think anyone in this thread hasn't said that diamond has shown that he's a competent MLB starter but expecting anything beyond a 4.00 ERA is risky. Unfortunately the same could have been said of blackburn a few years and this is exactly the type of arguments being made in favor of blackburn. Except those arguments just got ridiculous.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

With Diamond and Deduno... The odds are against them both a bit. I won't argue that... However... Doesn't anyone want to wait until they actually fail.

Sure, but people aren't waiting more than a partial season of success to declare him part of the long-term solution. That road goes both ways.

Originally Posted by kab21

Diamond and Deduno are nothing alike. Deduno is failing constantly. His 3.33 ERA has been helped by extraordinary luck. He has a 1.59 WHIP for those of you that don't like to use any of the complicated stats. There are baserunners out there everywhere and it's a miracle that he's pitching better than Blackburn.

I think you're being unjustly dismissive. Deduno also had a 3.43 ERA in 183 IP at Triple-A despite a 5.0 BB/9 rate. He's given up only 44 homers in 830 innings as a pro. The guy is legitimately tough to hit, and as long as that's the case he can probably hold his own because walks are simply much less damaging than the barrage of hits allowed by Blackburn.

Will the Twins stand behind a guy whose pace drags on and for whom getting through 5 innings can be a challenge? Now there's the question.

I get all of that. Deduno is playing with fire. No doubt about it. You play with fire... You will get burned.

If I was the GM... I would certainly be looking real hard for a safer option. But... until he actually gets burned doesn't anyone want to pull for the guy.

It can be called extroidanary luck or it can be called a sharp breaking pitch and nice moving fastball that he struggles to control but hitters struggle to get good wood on.

Im not saying... Give him a Blackburn deal tomorrow. The odds are against him with the base traffic messes he creates but until he actually...

Diamond... Maybe he's Good... Maybe he's not... Maybe he's somewhere in between. He's earned A job in 2013. I'm not going to cushion myself for a let down. If he falls... Someone will take his place. Baseball works that way. It wouldn't be the first time a player has come out of nowhere and it won't be the last. It also won't be the first time that a player flashed in the pan and it won't be the last.

I choose to wait and see. I feel good about Diamond right now and I will let myself be blindsided.

Deduno scares the **** out of me and I kinda like that as well. I think he has MLB stuff with High School control... Maybe this Houdini act of getting out of all these jams will be good experience for him.

The Twins need four starters for next season. They're not going to field four guys from the free agent crop and the minors. That will leave at least one (possibly two) spots open for scrubs to start 2013.

With that said, why not Deduno? I don't think he will cut it long-term but at this point, he's worth a shot.

Scholarship for Deduno!

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

With Diamond and Deduno... The odds are against them both a bit. I won't argue that... However... Doesn't anyone want to wait until they actually fail.

Diamond and Deduno are nothing alike. Deduno is failing constantly. His 3.33 ERA has been helped by extraordinary luck. He has a 1.59 WHIP for those of you that don't like to use any of the complicated stats. There are baserunners out there everywhere and it's a miracle that he's pitching better than Blackburn.

I don't think anyone in this thread hasn't said that diamond has shown that he's a competent MLB starter but expecting anything beyond a 4.00 ERA is risky. Unfortunately the same could have been said of blackburn a few years and this is exactly the type of arguments being made in favor of blackburn. Except those arguments just got ridiculous.

How is he failing constantly? He has a 3.33 ERA, is 3-1, and he only allowed 2 runs in his loss. You can bring up the walks all day, but in August batters are hitting at a .210 clip against him. In 2012 5/8 starts were quality, and he has 9 GBDP. Looking back on his career minor league numbers and the stats are almost the same. This guy may be a loose cannon at times, but as long as he is throwing 50/50 balls and strikes, and keeps that nasty movement on the strikes he is throwing, it is not crazy to think that he can be a legit piece of the rotation.

Comparisons to Blackburn just because Blackie USED to have movement on his pitches is wrong. Blackie had allowed 28 HR's before he was sent down (1.2/game) Deduno has 4 (0.5/game)....Not to mention 18 of Blackies 28 HR's came in the first inning...

I know this thread is about Diamond, but the contrasts between Deduno and Blackie are too large to put them in the same boat. Diamond as well shouldn't be compared to Blackie for more than the fact that they are both control pitchers that need to spot their pitches well and work both sides of the plate. One of them is proving this year that he knows how to do so... the other (Blackie) has lost all presence on the mound and listening to his post game interviews, doesn't even know what to do to fix it.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Scholarship for Deduno!

He is proving he belongs every time he steps out on the mound. Just because a guy walks batters a bit too much, doesn't mean he's on a scholarship program. I am assuming you were being sarcastic here... at least hoping so.

Long-term, I view Diamond as a #3-4 starter on a competitive team. Lots of ifs, but if lucky: Baker #2-3; Gibson #2-3; Diamond #3-4; Hendriks #4-5. All the rest, including Duensing, should be labeled as #5-6 guys. And Rochester is in the playoff hunt with Vasquez, Hernandez, DeVries, Walters, Deduno, Bromberg, Hermsen....none of which will serve as anything more than a back-end starter on an injury-depleted losing team.

Which is why we need two, not one, new #2-3 starters via FA and trade. We can compete for the division with frour #2-3 starters. There is no need to deplete the farm system, or mangle the current roster, or break the bank to become at least competitive for 2013. Going for an ace would do one of those things.

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

Long-term, I view Diamond as a #3-4 starter on a competitive team. Lots of ifs, but if lucky: Baker #2-3; Gibson #2-3; Diamond #3-4; Hendriks #4-5. All the rest, including Duensing, should be labeled as #5-6 guys. And Rochester is in the playoff hunt with Vasquez, Hernandez, DeVries, Walters, Deduno, Bromberg, Hermsen....none of which will serve as anything more than a back-end starter on an injury-depleted losing team.

Which is why we need two, not one, new #2-3 starters via FA and trade. We can compete for the division with frour #2-3 starters. There is no need to deplete the farm system, or mangle the current roster, or break the bank to become at least competitive for 2013. Going for an ace would do one of those things.

I agree with you that we need 2 front end type guys in the rotation, and that they will likely come from FA and/or trades in the off season. But your first paragraph is confusing...

a) Baker is not going to be back next year.
b) Hendricks has done nothing to prove that he can compete at the major league level. He has proven himself in AAA, but I think he is still a couple years away.
C) DeVries, and Deduno are not even on Rochester right now... are you including them because they once were? Walters may be there, but it's a rehab stint... Hendricks, Vasquez, Hernandez, are some of the more notable starters that have helped them on this playoff push.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Originally Posted by powrwrap

I'm getting a better understanding of your position.

I'll go back to my hypothetical. Supposing Diamond finishes the season 14-7 with an ERA of 2.90. Now suppose next year he goes 18-9 with an ERA of 3.12, statistically the best Twins pitcher. Assuming no free agent pitcher signings, in 2014 isn't Scott Diamond your #1 pitcher, the leader of the pitching staff? Come playoff time, who else would you start in Game 1?

Well, your scenario supposes that Diamond continues posting the numbers he has over 20 starts this season throughout next year. I don't think that's a reasonable expectation. Assuming he can sustain the way he's been inducing grounders and limiting walks, he's a nice pitcher, but we're still talking about a fairly hittable guy who ranks 96 out of 101 qualified MLB starters in K-rate. That's just not a sustainable recipe for the kind of numbers you're envisioning.

I'm not saying his performance this year is a complete mirage. He could very well be a good pitcher again next year. But to answer your final question, if he's the Twins' best pitcher, I certainly don't think they're a playoff team.

Diamond reminds me a lot of Brad Radke. Radke was the Twins' ace (until Johan took the role.) The Twins went to the playoffs with Radke. What am I missing here?

Originally Posted by powrwrap

Diamond reminds me a lot of Brad Radke. Radke was the Twins' ace (until Johan took the role.) The Twins went to the playoffs with Radke. What am I missing here?

1) The Twins never made the playoffs in a year where Radke was their best starter.

2) It is WAY too early to put Diamond on Radke's level. That's an extremely optimistic comp.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Originally Posted by powrwrap

Diamond reminds me a lot of Brad Radke. Radke was the Twins' ace (until Johan took the role.) The Twins went to the playoffs with Radke. What am I missing here?

1) The Twins never made the playoffs in a year where Radke was their best starter.

2003? Johan was a reliever until the last 2 months of the season, IIRC.

2) It is WAY too early to put Diamond on Radke's level. That's an extremely optimistic comp.

It's not WAY too early, but it is early. Look at Radke's early years. Diamond is ahead of him in his progression.

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

How is he failing constantly? He has a 3.33 ERA, is 3-1, and he only allowed 2 runs in his loss. You can bring up the walks all day, but in August batters are hitting at a .210 clip against him. In 2012 5/8 starts were quality, and he has 9 GBDP. Looking back on his career minor league numbers and the stats are almost the same. This guy may be a loose cannon at times, but as long as he is throwing 50/50 balls and strikes, and keeps that nasty movement on the strikes he is throwing, it is not crazy to think that he can be a legit piece of the rotation.

Comparisons to Blackburn just because Blackie USED to have movement on his pitches is wrong. Blackie had allowed 28 HR's before he was sent down (1.2/game) Deduno has 4 (0.5/game)....Not to mention 18 of Blackies 28 HR's came in the first inning...

I know this thread is about Diamond, but the contrasts between Deduno and Blackie are too large to put them in the same boat. Diamond as well shouldn't be compared to Blackie for more than the fact that they are both control pitchers that need to spot their pitches well and work both sides of the plate. One of them is proving this year that he knows how to do so... the other (Blackie) has lost all presence on the mound and listening to his post game interviews, doesn't even know what to do to fix it.

when I speak of blackburn in this thread I speak of the half decent Blackburn from a few years ago. There was a huge thread on BYTO where the most ridiculous reasons (ability to induce weak contact was my favorite) were given to defend why he could maintain a 3.00 ERA despite being entirely mediocre in pretty much all of the advanced stats. It wasn't really a surprise to many of us when his luck reversed at the end of the season and in the next season.

You can talk up Deduno's small sample size but if his movement was really that nasty then he would strike out WAY MORE batters (more like Slama). Throwing 50/50 balls/strikes is awful. If a pitcher continues to put hitters on base (1.5+/inning) things are going to blow up at some point.

Diamond is actually a pleasant revelation this year and is a legit MLB pitcher but I would compare him more to the Twin's version of Carl Pavano. A good but definitely not great pitcher that you expect a 4.00 ERA. I'll take it as a start since everyone else is awful.

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

a) Baker is not going to be back next year.

I believe that there is a 75% chance that Baker will be back next year.

They are obviously not going to pick up is option, but he has stated that he would like to return. Also the market for him isn't going to be that great due to his injury.

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

a) Baker is not going to be back next year.

I believe that there is a 75% chance that Baker will be back next year.

They are obviously not going to pick up is option, but he has stated that he would like to return. Also the market for him isn't going to be that great due to his injury.

75% is pretty optimistic. You are absolutely right that there is no way the Twins pick up his option, and I also have heard that he has an interest in returning for less... but the big question is(and I don't think anybody but the FO knows this)... Do the Twins even want him back? I wish him the best in his career and wouldn't be upset if he did come back and pitch as well or better than he used to. I just think a lot of different pieces have to line up for it to happen.

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

How is he failing constantly? He has a 3.33 ERA, is 3-1, and he only allowed 2 runs in his loss. You can bring up the walks all day, but in August batters are hitting at a .210 clip against him. In 2012 5/8 starts were quality, and he has 9 GBDP. Looking back on his career minor league numbers and the stats are almost the same. This guy may be a loose cannon at times, but as long as he is throwing 50/50 balls and strikes, and keeps that nasty movement on the strikes he is throwing, it is not crazy to think that he can be a legit piece of the rotation.

Comparisons to Blackburn just because Blackie USED to have movement on his pitches is wrong. Blackie had allowed 28 HR's before he was sent down (1.2/game) Deduno has 4 (0.5/game)....Not to mention 18 of Blackies 28 HR's came in the first inning...

I know this thread is about Diamond, but the contrasts between Deduno and Blackie are too large to put them in the same boat. Diamond as well shouldn't be compared to Blackie for more than the fact that they are both control pitchers that need to spot their pitches well and work both sides of the plate. One of them is proving this year that he knows how to do so... the other (Blackie) has lost all presence on the mound and listening to his post game interviews, doesn't even know what to do to fix it.

when I speak of blackburn in this thread I speak of the half decent Blackburn from a few years ago. There was a huge thread on BYTO where the most ridiculous reasons (ability to induce weak contact was my favorite) were given to defend why he could maintain a 3.00 ERA despite being entirely mediocre in pretty much all of the advanced stats. It wasn't really a surprise to many of us when his luck reversed at the end of the season and in the next season.

You can talk up Deduno's small sample size but if his movement was really that nasty then he would strike out WAY MORE batters (more like Slama). Throwing 50/50 balls/strikes is awful. If a pitcher continues to put hitters on base (1.5+/inning) things are going to blow up at some point.

Diamond is actually a pleasant revelation this year and is a legit MLB pitcher but I would compare him more to the Twin's version of Carl Pavano. A good but definitely not great pitcher that you expect a 4.00 ERA. I'll take it as a start since everyone else is awful.

You're right he was half decent a few years ago... and I'll admit I never went to BYTO so I never read any of those threads. I am sure now looking at where he is, most of the reasons look ridiculous now.

Deduno's MLB sample size is relatively small, and yes statistics proves that he will likely slide a bit. BUT in 8 seasons in the minors, he has a SO/9 of 9.6 and BB/9 of 5.1., a 4.18ERA in 780 innings, a very good 39 HR's allowed, and 835 SO to 441 BB. Right now his SO/BB is actually a little bit worse than what his career numbers prove, and I really think he will only get better from here. This isn't me saying I think he needs to be our ace, or even a top 3 guy... I just think he deserves credit where credit is due, and following Diamond is probably the next pitcher the FO should be strongly considering for a spot in the rotation next year.

Diamond is solid, and I certainly hope he turns out better than a Twin's version of Pavano... Pavano has a very good understanding of what it takes to be a successful pitcher with his type of "stuff", but can't stay healthy for the life of him. We do not need a Pavano2.0 in Scott Diamond...

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

Originally Posted by SweetOne69

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

a) Baker is not going to be back next year.

I believe that there is a 75% chance that Baker will be back next year.

They are obviously not going to pick up is option, but he has stated that he would like to return. Also the market for him isn't going to be that great due to his injury.

75% is pretty optimistic. You are absolutely right that there is no way the Twins pick up his option, and I also have heard that he has an interest in returning for less... but the big question is(and I don't think anybody but the FO knows this)... Do the Twins even want him back? I wish him the best in his career and wouldn't be upset if he did come back and pitch as well or better than he used to. I just think a lot of different pieces have to line up for it to happen.

Actually 75% might be conservative. With Baker's injury situation he is the typical low cost, high risk, high reward type of player that they seem to covet in FA.