Thread: Article: Deciphering Deduno

Originally Posted by Mauerzy4Prez

Diamond and Henricks as our #1 and 2 is not good. Diamond is a #2-3 type pitcher on a legit staff, and Hendricks is right around the same. We have Gibson coming back next year hopefully by July, and I'd like to see him in the 2 spot. That leaves it up to the FO to pick up a solid #1 guy, and figure out their 4 and 5 spots... Personally I think they will end up giving Deduno, Duensing, maybe DeVries/Walters/Vasquez/Hernandez, a chance to fill up the back of the rotation. We will see how some of these young guys do in the next 45 games...

For all you that are going to rip me for mentioning Duensing, the main reason I have him listed is because everyone from the organization publicly talks about how they believe he can start in the major leagues. The Twins aren't as ready to give up on him as some of the fans might be.

In no way is either Hendriks or Diamond a #1 pitcher. I was merely using those numbers as placeholders, not the intended position of each player in the rotation.

Originally Posted by kab21

Originally Posted by Teflon

I think you would look for pitchers with comparable WHIPs and then compare the percentages of walks of each. My supposition would be that the pitcher with the higher walk total should give up fewer runs, barring a large discrepancy in extra-base hits between the two. For instance, Aaron Harang and Dan Haren have almost identical WHIPs (1.391) in a fairly comparable number of innings (143 - 129) with a similar number of strikeouts (112 - 101) Harang has walked twice as many batters (67) as Haren (33) but has an ERA over a run lower. (3.65 to 4.90) To my mind, Harang would be the better choice between the two BECAUSE he walks more batters. I'm not saying Harang would be better than a pitcher with a lower WHIP - just better than a pitcher with a comparable WHIP and fewer walks.

This would only be true if you were leaving BAPIP out of the equation as well as GB rate and HR/FB rate. Going forward you would expect Harang's BAPIP to climb some and for him to give up a similar number of HR's as Haren.

Irrelevant. My only point is that a walk is a better outcome than a hit. Deduno's walks hurt less than if they were hits.