08-16-2012, 11:40 PM #1
Parmelee vs. Morneau
Both are true 1B let's face facts. While I'd like to have Parmelee in RF for September call-ups and the remainder of 2012, it really shouldn't be a long term thing. The Twins have outfielders in the system that are better suited there. Good ones too. So what happens? This most logical option seems to be trading Morneau. But do they really *gasp* "sell low" on a MVP as many would gripe about? What is Morneau really capable of now? Do the Twins try to find out and keep this as an issue any longer? Do they trade Parmelee and watch him flourish elsewhere? For long term at 1B, I feel like it's one or the other. Neither Parmelee or Morneau can move to a new spot in my eyes. Mauer will eat at 1B time and it's seems strange to have one (Morneau definitely) solely DH every game. From my post you can gather that I'm leaning towards trading Justin. However, this really is a complicated situation where the Twins HAVE to get things right. There's no way anyone should have to look back and say they handled this completely wrong. Emotionally, I cry if Morneau leaves and I'm pissed if Parmelee's traded. A lot of questions already in this post and here's one final one. What should the Twins do?!
Note: This is a great idea for a blog post and I'll probably end up making one anyway with more detail. No one responds to those so that's why I made a post in TT. I'm actually really curious to what the popular opinion is.
08-16-2012, 11:58 PM #2
Make this a blog. Really, we'd love to see it. It's one of the most interesting points for the Twins moving into 2013.
Personally, as (I believe it was Thyrlos) pointed out, the Twins have been paying Morneau $14m to be a 1 WAR player. I think he'll finish this season well above that (maybe a 1.5 WAR) player but that's still a hell of a lot of money when you have a first baseman in AAA posting an OPS of 1.115.
I see it like this:
You let Justin play. If he's truly back, you have a HUGE trade chip starting in May. You fit Chris into the lineup everywhere and anywhere you can and let him play as much in Minnesota as possible. If, in June of 2013, you are in a position of strength to trade, you do it. Let Chris fail or succeed on the ML level and then you treat Justin appropriately.
Of course, much of this depends on trading Span to clear room in the OF so Chris can get ML ABs.
08-17-2012, 12:17 AM #3
dont think you can wait till next yr. They have to decide this winter. Cant have it hanging over your head.
First thing, Justin needs to continue hitting well over the last 6 wks. There are teams interested in him even if he's not the MVP candidate anymore, but at what price as you may have to package prospects.
I like looking at TEX, who is gonna deal Elvis Andrus this winter.....or returning him to Candada---TOR---and seeing if they would give up Ricky Romero and his 4 remaining yrs on his deal after a lackluster season. Both teams have been heavily rumoured to be interested in Justin, as is the Dodgers who have a top pitching prospect (Zach Lee) who may never see the big club if they decide to be big name spenders instead of relying on prospects
08-17-2012, 12:41 AM #4
It would be nice to see Parmelee get the MLB playing time he needs while Morneau is still on this ballclub. I do believe Parmelee can be a very good player but this needs to be verified for a substantial period of time. Call me loyal or a homer, but it has been a bummer seeing Morneau go through what he has gone through with his injuries and the concussion issue. In my baseball heart, I believe Morneau is still adjusting and removing the remaining rust from his game. I still believe he can be an impact player and an asset. If the Twins want both of them as full time players - it can be done. Use Mark Trumbo for the example.
08-17-2012, 07:47 AM #5
Trading Morneau this offseason is already selling higher than what it would have been had they traded him in June/July. He's owed less, and looking more and more like his former self. If he keeps that up for the remainder of the year, there will be suitors for him this offseason, though I don't know if any of them will be willing to offer front line pitching for Justin.
I agree primarly with what Brock said. One guy gets flipped this offseason to give Parm a temporary position. As long as he hits, Morneau gets flipped at the deadline when his value is presumably even higher.
08-17-2012, 08:46 AM #6
I think if that if an acceptable offer comes in the off season that it should be taken and then we don’t look back. It will be sad to see him go but it would be worse to have to settle for a lower value trade next year because things don’t work out as planned. Let’s hope he continues to hit like he has recently so his value is as high as possible this off season. I will be sad to see him go having not reached his full potential with our club but business is business. The poor guy just could not stay on the field during his prime athletic years.
08-17-2012, 09:51 AM #7
I think I would prefer keeping Morneau. He's still just 31 and plays a solid 1B. Yes, Parmelee has a great OPS... in AAA. Morneau on the other hand has an OPS of .921 in the Majors since the beginning of July and finally seems to be hitting the stride Twins fans have been waiting for since the concussion. And, if you're concerned about the small sample size of Morneau's resurgence, it's only 15 fewer games than Parmelee has been raking at AAA. Plus, in 2014, how much time will Mauer be spending at 1B?
Also, if Parmelee is the top prospect Twins fans think he is, couldn't the front office flip him for a top pitching prospect? Seems a great time to sell high.
08-17-2012, 10:23 AM #8
I've been twirling this issue in my head as a possible blog post, too, and I just can't seem to find the right angle. It does feel very deja vu-ish, though. Seems like only yesterday that Dougie was traded to make room for Justin. It may come down to whether the Twins feel Parmelee is truly a long term solution at 1B or whether he'd just be a stop-gap until a younger prospect (Sano or Vargas maybe?) takes over. Sure, the Twins could use Morneau's salary to fund some pitching, but if nobody is willing to take him in a trade without the Twins eating a big chunk of his 2013 salary, you don't get that money to spend, anyway.I post regularly on our Knuckleballs blog (http://knuckleballsblog.com/)
~You can get anything you want, at Alice's Restaurant~
08-17-2012, 01:49 PM #9
If it has to happen I think it's wise to do it at the deadline next year, unless an offer comes along that you can't refuse but I don't see that happening. People seem to forget Morneau missed close to 2 years of baseball when evaluating his contribution, yet over the course of this year he has shown progressively that he is slowly rounding back to form. Morneau will never have another MVP year but I do believe he will steadily move closer to that point as time goes on, it's not like that level is foreign to him.
By that time we'll likely be able to see whether Parmelee is a suitable replacement at 1B , given more time for Morneau to raise his stock and not have his upcoming salary be a wedge between getting more return.
The end of Morneau's time in Minnesota will truly be a sad day for me.
08-17-2012, 06:00 PM #10
I'd like to see Parmelee get 300 MLB ABs before deciding whether he's ready. Sure, it looks like he's ready in AAA, but so does Hendricks. Once I see continued success in the MLB it will be easier to ship our former MVP away.Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.
08-17-2012, 06:21 PM #11-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
08-17-2012, 07:03 PM #12
I love Justin, and am thrilled that he seems to be finally free of concussion symptoms. I was one of many who thought that would never happen. I want him to succeed whether it is in MN or elsewhere. Is he worth $14 mil, probably not. If we could get a decent pitcher for him, then I am okay with a trade. My question is where does Joe Mauer fit into the first base puzzle. He seems to be playing more first base this year, and I know he is doing less catching than in the past. His knee issues are only going to get worse as he ages and would not be surprised if in the not too distant future he becomes our everyday first baseman. Parmelee seemed to be the real deal last Sept., but this year he has become a question mark. Like many other question marks on this team.
08-17-2012, 08:16 PM #13
It's one thing to trade Mientkiewicz to make room for Morneau or A.J. to make room for Mauer because they were good players with limited upside.
It's another to trade Morneau, a proven star commodity, to make room for Parmelee who has as many (if not more) questions as Morneau. I'd like to resign him to a 2-3 year deal. Anyone know how much he would command at this point?
08-17-2012, 08:49 PM #14
I think keeping them both is perfectly viable, and in my opinion, ideal. The Twins have unexpected good health in the OF, 1B, and C this year. If the Twins get a good deal for Morneau, you take it, but otherwise it's silly to sell low. He's likely to have much more value at next year's deadline, even if he produces as-is. I think it's more likely Span gets dealt, and Parmelee works his way into a four day week rotation until somebody else gets hurt. With guys like Morneau, Mauer, Willingham, and Doumit on the roster, having an insurance policy like Parmelee is an assett, one we really haven't needed to cash in on this year.
08-18-2012, 12:14 AM #15
Even this offseason I think people need to face the facts that neither Parmelee or Morneau have any significant trade value. If Morneau did then I would be all about trading him but since he doesn't I'm fine with going into 2013 with Mauer/Doumit/Morneau/Parmelee as the team's C/1B/DH options. We've been lucky this year since they have been healthy but it's unlikely to continue. The 3 older players can use days off and there's always the option of throwing Parmelee into the OF once a week for a year even if it is a little scary.
08-18-2012, 02:48 PM #16
08-18-2012, 02:50 PM #17
I also agree with the idea that there's no urgency in trading either Morneau or Parmelee. Not through waivers, not this offseason, probably not even next offseason, but that depends on whether the Twins will actually be good next year (probably not). Given the fact that our 1B options (Mauer, Morneau) have had serious health issues, and our DH options (Willingham, Doumit, Morneau) have had serious health issues, statistical probability tells us that it's good to have an insurance policy in place. That insurance policy is named Parmelee.
08-18-2012, 03:09 PM #18
This is a tough subject. Morneau is my favorite player. I'm still bitter about not having him in the '09 and '10 playoffs.
And he's played so little the last few years, I think people tend to forget how good he really was. I feel cheated by how much we've missed out on him, and you wonder what kind of numbers he could have put up had he stayed healthy. He's kinda like the Cam Neely of baseball.
I'm torn on what to do with him. His future possibilities range from return-to-MVP-form to bonk-on-melon-career-over.
I'd probably lean towards trying to get him to sign a reasonable extension because:
1) He's starting to look like his old self, and if that continues, he'll be worth the money
2) I'm not yet sold on Parmelee as a replacement (not saying he can't be, I just need to see more of him)
3) I don't think his trade value is all that high.
But I'm not opposed to moving him if the right deal comes along.
08-18-2012, 05:30 PM #19Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.
08-18-2012, 05:30 PM #20
You can't trade a mvp and expect to have any fans left.