08-15-2012, 11:41 AM #1
Who needs to be put on the 40-man or be exposed to the Rule V draft?
I couldn't find an easy resource for this. 18 yr olds and younger at time of signing need to be added after five seasons (including the signing year season), 19 yrs old and older after four seasons.
Aaron Hicks and probably all high schoolers drafted in 2008 have to be added to the 40. This includes BJ Hermsen, Kolten Wong (oh, wait), and George Springer (oh, wait). Ok, I'm being unfair here. Lots of players don't sign with teams. So Hicks and Hermsen...
And college players in 2009: Kyle Gibson, Chris Herrmann, and Dakota Watts (?). Matt Bashore and Billy Bullock and Ben Tootle will not have to be added, unfortunately.
Anybody else who we'd be afraid to lose?
Side note while perusing the drafts (and probably worth a separate post): here are the non-first picks by the Twins who were drafted in the top five rounds.
2006: Joe Benson, Tyler Robertson, Whit Robbins, Garrett Olson, Devin Shepherd
2007: Danny Rams, Angel Morales, Reggie Williams, Nate Striz (not signed)
2008: Carlos Gutierrez, Shooter Hunt, Tyler Ladendorf, Bobby Lanigan, Danny Ortiz, Nick Romero
2009: Matt Bashore, Billy Bullock (given away), Ben Tootle, Derek McCallum, Tobias Streich
2010: Niko Goodrum, Pat Dean, Eddie Rosario (heh, they hit), Nate Roberts
The jury is out on the 2011 picks and actually some of the 2006 picks (Benson, Robertson). But it's looking very likely that the Twins are going to get exactly one decent player (Rosario) out of this group 2006-2010, a five year period with 24 players the Twins chose in the first five round after their first picks (Parmelee, Revere, Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers).
My first thought is that this is pretty bad drafting, though Rosario can himself bring it into the mediocre range by being the strong player I think he'll be. It would be interesting to see how other teams did here. I'm going to look at one or two teams who are not top salary teams and see what they did.
2006: Sean Watson, Chris Valaika, Justin Reed, Josh Ravin
2007: Todd Frazier (slugging over .500), Kyle Lotzkar, Zack Cozart (starting shortstop), Scott Carroll, Neftali Soto
2008: Zach Stewart (AAA good, MLB bad), Tyler Cline, Clayton Shunick
2009: Brad Boxberger, Billy Hamilton (top 50 prospect), Donny Joseph (dominant AA-AAA reliever), Mark Fleury, Daniel Tuttle
2010: Ryan Lamarre, Devin Lohman, Brodie Greene, Wes Mugarian
Hmmm...it would be interesting to look at all the teams, but I suspect the Twins have really underachieved in this somewhat crucial area of the draft.
08-15-2012, 12:11 PM #2
Terry Ryan, Johnson and all the scouts are guilty of terrible drafting since Mauer. This is the major reasn the Twins have been terrible for 2 years and the outlook is bad going forward. You cant overcome a complete lack of minor league talent in just a year or two. Why TR didnt cash in assets like Span, Willy and others for minor league talent show he doesnt understand the need to build thru the minor leagues. We can only hope TR retires in the offseason so the Twins can bring in a Luhnow or Epstein type mind who knows how to build a winner in modern day baseball.
08-15-2012, 01:30 PM #3
08-16-2012, 02:10 AM #4
Wow, thanks for the link. Sorry I didn't see this.
08-16-2012, 07:40 AM #5
08-16-2012, 11:08 AM #6
LOL the amount of butt hurt that happened over trading Billy Bullock perhaps was only matched by the amount when Eduardo Morlan was included in the Garza deal. It's funny how some people can be completely blinded by all other stats when they see a nice k/rate. Who cares that he walks 7 guys per 9 innings, he doesn't pitch to contact!!!1!
08-16-2012, 11:36 AM #7
Bullock was finally promoted to AAA this yr for ATL
14gm 20.1IP 33h (.355BAA) 25er (11.07ERA) 26k 23bb
His control certainly took a dive when he left the Twins organization
91gms 107.2IP 101h 38er (3.18ERA) 150k 56bb
85gms 102.2IP 97h 65er (5.70ERA) 123k 85bb
Probably being a 3rd round pick, but Bullocks first 2 yrs in MN really looks alot like Corey Williams stats. Maybe we can flip him for a starter also.
08-16-2012, 11:43 AM #8
08-16-2012, 11:44 AM #9
I think most people were a lil surprised that MN cut Matt Bashore this spring....signed w/NYY
High A (FSL) 5gms..all relief 10IP 13h 4er (3.60ERA) 7k 7bb
Sent back to Low A
11gm..all starts 50IP 38h (.210BAA) 21ER (3.78ERA) 42k 26bb...not great but start on 7/22 2.1IP 7h 10er 1k 3bb. Pretty good 2.10 ERA in those other 10 starts. Of course, he is 24 & still in Low A.
If they hadnt waived him, LaVelle Neal would still be touting him as one of the top pitching prospects
08-16-2012, 12:31 PM #10
08-16-2012, 12:36 PM #11
What it shows is that we may be paying out waaaay too much in drafting players that will never reach he majors, or not even start in the majors. Out of the 40 or so drafted each year, 30% usually don't sign, another dozen are cut before they reach high-A ball. Most major league teams work in ONE player a year in a starting role, and ONE pitcher a year, if lucky, in the bullpen (who may be a starter). Another 3-5 may come up to the bigs for a temporary cup-of-coffee and may hang in the system for another year or three. Another 1-2 each year are groomed to become regulars. Even when trading for chips, you never know...but you can pick up another's team million dollar onus baby for a vet easily. And then you have Rule 5, 40-man roster adds which come with a waiver price if you decide to send them back to the minors...there are players out there to look at who are the 26th-28th players on the major league roster but in the minors, or the 41st-45th guys who aren't quite major league ready and not Rule 5 ready either (which Bullock was.....would we be adding him this year to the Twins roster, or risk losing him in the Rule 5). Being a GM is a tough job, you have to juggle so many players and POTENTIAL. And that potential changes every year from level to level.
08-16-2012, 12:45 PM #12
ugh... The draft costs one Carl pavano a year. Not investing in the draft is the worst idea ever.
08-18-2012, 03:15 PM #13
08-18-2012, 11:54 PM #14
Having Diamond as the mop up guy on the 2011 Twins probably hurts his development more than anything, I'm glad he was able to make starts in AAA last year, hard to argue with the results he has put on the field this year.
Frankly, I wonder if we should have just tried to trade a player for Santana back in the day instead of having him waste an entire team controllable year by having him in the majors as the mop up guy before he was ever ready.
08-19-2012, 12:10 AM #15
It probably wouldn't have happened to Santana. That was one of those gambles...a player that shuld've never been in the majors, but someone saw something.
08-19-2012, 08:48 PM #16
what about Ft Myers reliever Michael Tonkin, who is up for RULE V.
89K .207BAA 2.08ERA in 65innings.
Sure he would be protected in the minor league portion, but would a HOU/SD type take that type of longshot ??
08-19-2012, 09:00 PM #17
Tonkin certainly has to be considered. There are a lot of intriguing situations on players who are Rule 5 eligible. There are the easy choices like Hicks, Gibson and Herrmann... and then there is Hermsen. Other interesting names include Pugh, Watts. There are just a lot of very interesting names, but then it comes down to how many come off the 40 man roster and how many sports they want to leave open.
08-19-2012, 09:13 PM #18
Wonder how much 'cat & mouse' negotiating there will be between MN & Josmil reps.
There just arent many solid catching options (at minor league levels) around to risk losing one IMO.
I would probably take a chance on Pugh/Watts....but they are definately in the conversation as MN cannot afford to lose many hard throwers.
08-20-2012, 12:37 AM #19